2006 US Open Preview:
Mens Draw

Scott Ferguson

Start spreading the news... I'm leaving today... Well, actually I'm not going over until Thursday, but I'm excited about being part of it - the US Open in New York. This year's Slam has tremendous depth - so many former top ten players scattered throughout the men's draw without a seeding, and the women's draw is the most open I've ever seen. It's just a shame that the USTA continually hand out wildcards to a selection of over-rated home-grown talent who invariably get flogged each year rather than exchanging them with the nations of other Slams or even giving some to less affluent nations. The depth of US men on the ATP Tour must be at an alltime low. My spread on no. of male American wildcards to reach R2 is 1-1.2. At least on the women's side they've got some former junior title runners-up and returning former stars such as Rubin and Serena Williams.

MEN

Federer is way into the red to win his third US Open in a row, but a recent loss to Murray where he dropped serve an incredible seven times in two sets showed a weakness in his armour. That said, the guy does have more gears than any player I've ever seen. Nadal has improved his game on surfaces other than clay immensely in the past twelve months and does hold a 6-2 record over Federer, yet his recent form is only solid, not his usual level of brilliance. The challengers either come from the young gun brigade - Baghdatis, Gasquet and Murray or the locals - Blake, Ginepri and Roddick, but don't be surprised by a few shocks from the older brigade. Amongst the unseeded players are the likes of Henman, Rusedski, Moya, Safin, Coria, Schuettler, Agassi, Johansson, Massu, Novak, Clement, Srichaphan and Philippoussis - all former top 10 players.

THE SEEDS and FLOATERS (prices indicate minimum price I'd need to back player)

1. Federer - Last defeated here in 2003 by Nalbandian, who incidentally beat him in the 1998 boy's final. Has just dropped three sets in each of the last two years - not quite as invincible as at Wimbledon, but not far off! Clearly the one to beat, but must rid himself of all memories of being broken seven times in two sets against Murray less than a fortnight ago. Blake and Nalbandian or Murray await in the quarter and semi respectively. 1.65

2. Nadal - The Pearl of Manacor is desperate to win his first Grand Slam off the red dirt. Hasn't played enough hardcourt events this season for my liking but his ability is undoubtable. His endless stamina will be enough to see off Philippoussis in R1 even if the Aussie has his service radar on. His quarter should hold no fear whatsoever but a semifinal opponent out of Baghdatis, Roddick, Gasquet or Ljubicic will make him earn a berth in the final. 7

3. Ljubicic - Has finally risen above his previously shocking record in Slams to make the final eight and four in Melbourne and Paris. For someone who plays and wins so many matches, his record against top players is poor - discounting the team events in 2006 and his only victory over a top 10 player was against Nalbandian in Miami. Not good enough for a world no.3. It explains why his odds and ranking are so far apart. In a tricky quarter which he should win if he's a genuine top five player. 66

4. Nalbandian - In poor form since the French Open, winning just three matches out of six since moving off the dirt. Losing to Sanguinetti and Wawrinka on the road to Flushing Meadow means he'll be in trouble against Safin in R2. 200

5. Blake - Not in superb form but was beaten by the losing finalist in both Toronto and Cincinnati. Will be on the end of huge crowd support in his hometown and revels at this venue. If he can see off Berdych or Tursunov in the round of 16, then a tussle with Federer awaits. It's not beyond him at his absolute best, despite not taking a set off him in four attempts. 66

6. Robredo - Has altered his game for hardcourt impressively this season, claiming some handy scalps in Tursunov, Blake, Safin, Gasquet and Ljubicic. In a claycourters part of the draw, he's likely to pass through fairly easily until he meets Nadal in the quarters. 200

7. Davydenko - On a weird run of form, having bombed in R1 in three of four events since Wimbledon, but won the other, a poor strength event in Poland. This week put him on a business end run at New Haven, a bit of a return to form but nothing to get too excited about. 160

8. Baghdatis - The new star of the year, having reached the final in Melbourne and semi at Wimbledon. Now has a good player's ranking and is in the sights of everyone. Agassi in R2 will be a test with the crowd against him, as will Roddick in R4 if still alive. No doubt he's good enough to be there late in week two but will need to call on his enormous reserves of heart and stamina to still be alive then. 66

9. Roddick - Missed Toronto with a bank injury but returned to form with the title in Cincinnati, not dropping a set after scraping through in three tiebreaks against Bracciali when a little rusty. Ready to fire under new coach Jimmy Connors who knew better than anyone how to get the New York crowd behind him. Winner here in 2003, he'll need to step up against Baghdatis and Gasquet/Ljubicic before he strikes the dominant duo. 20

10. Gonzalez - In fine fettle on the hardcourts, reaching the semis of three events on the trot. Could someone finally have worked out what's going on between his ears? There are few more entertaining players to watch when this guy is hitting winners. His tough test will come in round three against the patience of Murray. If he can wear him down and not lose his temper, then he is a genuine threat to go much further. 80

11. Ferrer - Getting better on this surface but never really going to threaten. 400

12. Berdych - Making his way steadily through the rankings. An all-surface player who has taken the scalp of Federer before. Tursunov in R3 followed by Blake will test him right out. 150

13. Nieminen - Not likely. 500

14. Haas - Has promised for many years, now he's got a run of fitness under his belt. Ginepri in R3 is a rematch the same stage from last year when the German was squeezed out in five. Always have the feeling he's two points away from breaking down. Purely on ability, he could have won one of these by now. 200

15. Hewitt - Tendonitis in one knee and wasn't in great form before that arose. Might just be falling off the map, his ranking is fading fast. 250

16. Ferrero - Better on clay but reached the final in Cincinnati. A fourth round exit at the hands of Federer looks imminent. 400

17. Murray - The hype is all over the British media again after his win over Federer in Cincinnati. He is good enough to win one of these but give him time for his body to mature. He's not strong enough to go seven best-of-five matches at this level. Revels on this surface and away from Britain though, he'll rattle a few cages here. 100

18. Ginepri - If he can beat Haas in R3 this time, he could shock a few by reaching the semis. Ability is there, he just has to put it all together on the day. 150

20. Djokovic - Rising star in need of a big result to gain respect and ranking points. Mardy Fish in R2 will give him a test as will Hewitt in the third if he's fit. Have yet to see anything from him which says he can win a big event but still developing. 200

23. Tursunov - Plenty of ability and specialises on this surface. R3 against Berdych will be worth watching. 400

25. Gasquet - Ranking heading in the right direction ag=pain after periods of injury. Took a set off Federer in the Toronto final, certainly in with a chance of winning his quarter of the draw. 80

Safin - Former winner here always capable of something special but I doubt his fitness is up to it. 500

Agassi - Finalist here last year but his body is just about shot. Can't see a fairytale ending here. 500

THE BETS

It's not easy to trade big-priced players with Federer so dominant. Ginepri is a solid chance of winning his quarter, so prices over 200 should be snapped up on him with an eye to trading back after a few rounds.