2009/10 Week 9

The World Cup qualifying comes to a close this week as teams prepare for a final push to make the trip to South Africa next summer. Most of the focus will be on the likes of Portugal and Argentina who are in real danger of missing the boat (or plane), depriving the public of Ronaldo and Messi showcasing their talents on the biggest stage. Both should win, but are priced up plenty short enough to deter any value betting.
 
A tricky fixture list, with plenty of meaningless games, makes oppurtunities few and far between this week, but Group 4 of the European section provides us with an angle on the Russia v Germany fixture, with Germany leading the group by one point from Russia. With both teams having a simple fixture next week, this game will decide which team qualifies and which has to endure a play-off - possibly involving the likes of Portugal, Czech Republic, Turkey, Croatia and France, which they will be keen to avoid.

The Russians are taking no chances, and have decided to host the game at the Luzhniki stadium in Moscow, and will therefore be played on a synthetic or 'plastic' pitch. Whilst slightly controversial, it does give the Russians a huge advantage as their players are far more used to the surface whilst the Germans have little or no experience of it. The Russians, on all pitches, since 2002 have lost just four out of 37 games at home, mainly due to the intimidating atmosphere and climate that the opposition have to endure. With Premier League stars Andrei Arshavin, Roman Pavlyuchenko and Yuri Zhirkov in their ranks they will be a formidable outfit to face in any conditions.

For Germany, a draw would be a great result and would almost guarantee top spot, so they are likely to take a more pragmatic approach, especially in the later stages should the game be level. With this in mind, back Russia in the 'draw no bet' market at 1.8 with Skybet or 1.78 with Pinnacle for 2.5 points.
 
We will look domestically in England for a couple of value bets, which both involve low scoring teams in League One. Yeovil Town were one of the lowest scoring teams last season, with games averaging 2.33 goals, and 63% of games falling under 2.5 goals. This year, seven out of their first eleven games have also finished low - with two 0-0 draws in their last two games. Brighton are the visitors, and despite a 50/50 record of over and under 2.5 last season, were far lower scoring away in averaging 2.3 goals per game and 57% unders. This year seven out of their ten games have also fallen below the over/under line.

Bet 365 offer 1.83, and Pinnacle 1.81 which equates to around a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals, it is worth betting this is too low and is nearer a 60% chance. Take 1.5 points at 1.83 on there being under 2.5 goals in the game.
 
Gillingham host Wycombe in another game that looks relatively low scoring. Both teams were promoted from League 2 last season with Gillingham's games averaging 2.46 goals and finishing with 59% falling under 2.5 goals. Wycombe were defensively the strongest team in the league last term, managing clean sheets in an incredible 46% of their games and averaging just 1.89 goals per match. Away from home 19 out of 23 games finished with less than 2.5 goals at an average of 1.7 goals per game.

With both teams struggling this season, points are at a premium, so expect a tight game and bet on under 2.5 goals at a generous looking 1.81 with Pinnacle for 1.5 points. Also take 0.75 points on the 'unders' double with Pinnacle, which works out at odds of 3.28.
 
 
Bets:

Russia over Germany, Draw no bet. 2.5 points @ 1.8 (Skybet) or 1.78 (Pinnacle)
League One: Yeovil v Brighton under 2.5 goals. 1.5 points @ 1.83 (Bet365) or 1.81 (Pinnacle)
League One: Gillingham v Wycombe under 2.5 goals. 1.5 points @ 1.81 (Pinnacle)
Under 2.5 double on the above 2 games. 0.75 points @ 3.28 (Pinnacle)

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