2009/10 Week 7

Atletico Madrid, two points from four games this season plus a disappointing 0-0 draw at home to Cypriot minnows in the Champions league. Who wants to back them this week? The answer is not many people, which is why we are compelled to swim against the tide and back them at very inflated odds away at Valencia this weekend. Much has been made of Abel Resino's team and position as manager after a sluggish start to the campaign. However, the nucleus of the team is far superior to Valencia and includes a strike pairing of Sergio Aguero and Diego Forlan supported by Simao and Maxi on the wings and the hugely underrated Cleber Santana in the middle of the park.

Valencia have their fair share of problems both on and off the pitch, with financial struggles complicating their new stadium and the constant speculation linking David Villa with a move away from the Mestalla. Valencia have failed to convince this season and failed to beat 10 man Sporting Gijon last week at home and fell 3-1 on their midweek trip to Getafe. They should be taken on as odds on favourites and odds of 4.2 about Atletico are far too generous to resist. Take 1 point at 4.2 with Stan James about the Ateltico win and 1 point 'Draw no-bet' at 3.0 With IASBet, Centrebet or Stan James as a saver should Atletico settle for a point.

In England this week, bank on Blackburn again failing to find their goalscoring touch at home to Aston Villa in the Premier League. We have already underlined Blackburn's problems in front of goal and Sam Alladyce's negative approach which has culminated in Blackburn's games producing less goals than average goals over the last season. With 58% of last seasons games, and two out of three this season, failing to produce over 2.5 goals, there is a noticable trend devoloping. Aston Villa, despite the reputation as an attacking team, produced 53% of games with less than 2.5 goals last term away from home and may struggle to break down a stubborn Blackburn outfit.
Take 1.5 points with Pinnacle at 1.84 on the trend continuing and less than 2.5 goals being scored in the game.

Elsewhere in England, Sunderland have slowly gone about their business under the astute Steve Bruce and created a strong side that should finish in the mid-table region after a disappointing 16th place finish last term. The signings of Darren Bent, Frazier Campbell, Lee Cattermole and Michael Turner show good ambition and mark them as a good side with a solid Englsh spine. With three wins out of four at home (the only loss to Chelsea), Sunderland have made a promising start that should continue over the course of the season.

Wolves have flattered to deceive so far, as injuries to key players such as Kightly, Ebanks-Blake and Iwelumo have disrupted their season. We believe them to be a poor outfit with a poor manager who have already lost three of their four away trips this season and may continue to struggle and be outclassed. A weak defence will struggle to contain the on form Darren Bent and a home win looks banker material at 1.8. Take 2 points at the odds with Betfair, Boylesports or Unibet.

Finally in the Premiership, Both Tottenham and Liverpool have easy matchups against Burnley and Hull respectively - arguably the two poorest teams in the division. This has given us an oppurtunity to get with a couple of sharp-shooters in first goalscorer markets that look overpriced.

Jermain Defoe has started the season, for both Spurs and England, on fantastic form scoring 11 in his last 11 games despite not starting four of those. A proven goalscorer, and the focal point of Spurs attack should be nearer the 4.3 mark rather than the 5.5 offered.

Likewise, Stevie Gerrard has been a constant goal-getter for Liverpool with 29 goals in his last 68 games for the reds. As penalty and free-kick taker, Gerrard should score around a quarter of Liverpools goals when starting and should be backed to open the scoring against a leaky Hull defence.

Both players are 5.5 with Coral and should be backed each way at 1/3 the odds with the place part counting for the first 10 scorers (unlikely to get more scorers than this so effectively an 'anytime' bet). Take 0.5 points each way on both player for a total stake of 2 points with Coral.

Bets:

Atletico Madrid over Valencia, 1 point at 4.2 (Stan James) and 1 point 'Draw no bet' at 3.0 (IASBet/Centrebet/Stan James)
Blackburn v Aston Villa under 2.5 goals, 1.5 points at 1.84 (Pinnacle, 1.8 TAB)
Sunderland over Wolves, 2 points at 1.8 (Betfair, Boylesports or Unibet)
Jermain Defoe First goalscorer (Spurs v Burnley) 0.5 points each way at 5.5 (Coral)
Steven Gerrard First Goalscorer (Liverpool v Hull) 0.5 points each way at 5.5 (Coral)

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