The big game of the English weekend is Chelsea v Manchester United, with the Blues currently leading their rivals by two points and scoring goals for fun. The bedrock of the United side over the last year has been the central defensive partnership of Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic, but both have looked shaky of late and the former is now out of action due to injury. We expect a Chelsea victory but odds of 2.1 are just not quite big enough to warrant a wager, look to back them should they drift however.

Blackurn host Portsmouth in the EPL and we anticipate a defensive affair. Blackburn are setting their team out with just one striker and despite their games producing above average goals, 11 of these have been scored against them in games against Chelsea and Arsenal. Expect them to revert to the form of last season whch produced 58% of home games falling under 2.5 goals.

Portsmouth, after their poor start, have improved immensely in defence keeping four clean sheets in their last five games and will look to keep up their record. With 63% of games having under three goals on their travels last season (four out of five this term), we can justify a bet at 1.93 with Bet365 or 1.91 with IASBet on under 2.5 goals for 2 points.

In Spain, Real Madrid travel to the Vicente Calderon to take on their city rivals Atletico Madrid. Most will expect goals to flow, but we will swim against the tide by chancing that they won't flow as much as the bookies think. Atletico have become known as a free scoring team that also is liable to concede goals for fun, mainly due to a lack of defensive work by their wingers Maxi and Simao leaving the defense exposed. Results have been poor and Abel Resino was sacked from the post a fortnight ago to be replaced by an excellent appointment of Quique Sanchez Flores. Flores presided over the great Valencia team from 2005 to 2008 that was both disciplined and talented in equal measure and has already set about installing a more defensive approach from his players.

Real Madrid are sorely missing the injured Ronaldo's goals and their last three games have not gone over two goals as teams face a less potent attack. History is also on our side, you have to go back 12 games - to 2003 to find the last game that had over three goals in league meetings between the teams. Take 0.75 points on under 2.5 goals at 2.43 with Centrebet and BetChoice or 2.41 with Pinnacle and 1.25 points on under 3.0 goals with Ladbrokes at 1.96 (stakes are returned if exactly 3 goals are scored) for a total stake of 2 points.

Also in La Liga, Villarreal are continuing to be priced up on their unlucky start to the season. Having rewarded us the last two weeks, and confidence surely building among their players, they should relish a chance to continue their revival when visting Sevilla. Bookies have the hosts as very strong favourites but VC Bet have gone too far in offering 4.33 on Villarreal in the Draw No Bet market (stakes returned if the match is drawn). Sevilla are a team we like very much this season, but on this occasion the odds reflect their quality perhaps too much and are worth taking on for 1 point.

Finally in Spain, we have a couple of players to back to open the scoring for strong home favourites. Valencia hotshot David Villa has now scored 94 goals for Valencia in 142 games and has every chance to continue scoring against Zaragoza, who were hit for six goals by Barcelona two weeks ago. Take 1 point Each way (1/3 the odds for the first 5 goals) at 4.33 with Paddy Power (or Bet Fred who only pay 4 places). Valladolid take on whipping boys Xerez and Diego Costa can add to his three goals in seven games this term. Playing as a lone striker supported by the experienced Cannobio, Marquitos and the talented Nauzet Aleman he should get a chance to shine and odds of 6.5 look too big to refuse at Blue Square. Take 0.5 points each way at 1/3 the odds for 5 places.

Bets:

EPL: Blackburn vs Portsmouth under 2.5 goals, 2 points @1.93 (Bet365) or 1.91 (IASBet)
La Liga: Atletico v Real Madrid under 2.5 goals, 0.75 points @2.43 (Centrebet, BetChoice) or 2.41 Pinnacle
La Liga: Atletico v Real Madrid under 3 goals, 1.25 points @1.96 (Ladbrokes) or 1.94 IASBet, 1.93 Pinnacle
La Liga: Villarreal, Draw No Bet (@ Sevilla), 1 point @4.33 (VC Bet) or 4.25 (Sportsbet)
La Liga: Valencia v Zaragoza – David Villa First Goalscorer, 1 point Each Way @4.33 (Paddy Power or Betfred)
La Liga: Valladolid v Xerez – Diego Costa First Goalscorer, 0.5 points Each Way@6.5 (Blue Square)

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