2008/09 Week 29

The first trophy of the domestic season is settled on Sunday, with Manchester United opposing Tottenham in the Carling Cup Final. It is a difficult match to judge with Ferguson promising the younger squad members Wembley experience whilst Spurs will be at full strength. It is an incredible seventeen games without defeat for United in the head-to-head, and although they are deserved 1.75 shots a bet couldn’t be recommended until line-ups are confirmed. The best bet may well be Carlos Tevez in the first goalscorer market at 7.0 as he is guaranteed a start but again the wager is line-up dependant so cannot be advised at this early stage.

Chelsea and Arsenal return to domestic duties after identical 1-0 results at home to Italian opposition, and both will be looking to maintain their Champions League status for next season. In previous seasons Arsenal had an excellent home record against lower rated opposition, but this season they have struggled to score sufficient goals. Two 0-0’s and two 1-0’s in their last four home games illustrate their problem, and Roy Hodgson’s Fulham side has the best defensive record outside the “Top Four”. Their stalemate at Anfield will be the template for this performance and we feel that the correct score prices don’t fully reflect the chance of a very low scoring game. A 0.25pt bet on No Goalscorer is recommended with Corals along with 0.75pt on 1-0 Arsenal at Centrebet.

Similar to the Gunners in respect of having dropped an unusual amount of home points, Chelsea appear to have improved through a new manager utilizing both top-class strikers at his disposal. The performances against Villa and Juventus were a signal that the defensive vulnerabilities under Scolari have gone, whilst Anelka and Drogba as a partnership should see their goals scored increase. Wigan’s scoring drought stretched to three games (one goal scored in six) and similar matches at Old Trafford and the Emirates ended in 1-0 defeats. The prices on the correct score market over-rate the chances of Wigan scoring, and the value lies in the 1-0 and 2-0 prices. Stake 0.5pt each on 1-0 at 7.5 (VC) and 2-0 at 6.5 (Stan James).

In the Championship we will again be opposing Southampton at home, and Cardiff should prove strong enough to gain three points. Worries about Cardiff’s growing injury list plus Southampton’s improvement have led to Skybet offering 2.5 about an away win. Cardiff do have a tendency for away draws (10 in 16) but we still rate Cardiff’s chances as being nearer 2.2 so stake 2pts.

Watford have turned the corner under Brendan Rogers, and should be comfortably safe from relegation by the seasons end. Their opponents Crystal Palace are struggling with a small squad and cannot afford to lose influential Aussie playmaker Nick Carle through suspension. Teams in the Championship have been exceptionally unpredictable this season but we like Watford at 2.45 with Pinnacle to the tune of 1.5pts.

Our final wagers are in the First Goalscorer markets offered by Paddy Power this weekend. As mentioned before value can often be found in players that score an exceptionally high percentage of their teams goals, and in Jason Scotland (Swansea) and Sylvain Ebanks-Blake (Wolves) we have two examples. Both play for strong home favourites and have a far greater chance of scoring than their price indicates. Have 0.75 e/w on Scotland at 6.0 (should be nearer 4.5) and 0.5pt e/w on Ebanks-Blake at 6.0 (nearer 5.0). The each way terms are 1/3 the odds the first five goals scored, and double the bookies pain by having 0.2pt on the double.

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