Euro 2008 - Day 12

The final 2 group games are at completely polar ends of the competitive spectrum. Spain v Greece is nothing more than a kick about between two nations blessed with sunshine and full of British Holidaymakers. Russia v Sweden by contrast looks set to be one of the games of the tournament with everything to play for between two teams with varied styles.
 
We will start our bets on the dead rubber involving Spain and Greece. As I have mentioned previously, these games are precarious to bet on and thus we will be cautious in our trades and the stakes suggested. One Spaniard who will start and who has shown glimpses of his brilliance so far is Cesc Fabregas. The Arsenal playmaker is pushing hard to play in the Quarter Finals and I expect him to turn in an impressive display here to heap further pressure on Luis Aragones to include him next time. Will Hill are taking a chance by offering Fabregas at 13.0 on the 1st Scorer market. This looks too big to me plus the each way terms are such that the place part is always value. I suggest risking 0.75 pts each way.
 
Our other bet in this match will be to back Spain at 1.81 on Betfair (post-commission). Spain reserves are a better team than Greece reserves by some distance. Both teams have already stated their intentions to rotate their starting eleven's and in my opinion the odds haven't adjusted accordingly. The Spanish players picked are going to be desperate to force their way into the the team for the knockout rounds. They also possess huge amounts of quality and in their own right are top class internationals. Greece simply do not have this depth to their squad and may find themselves caught out here. With it being a dead rubber we will stake carefully however, it's just 1pt this time.
 
Sweden v Russia is an all together different kettle of fish. This is a match with everything at stake. It is a match where because of the necessity for a win that both sides have we can bet with confidence.
 
Our first bet is on the first corner market with Lasseters. They have priced both teams as 1.9 probably on the basis that its a pick 'em match on the result odds. However the corner markets are slightly more complex and need proper statistical analysis. Russia are whole corner favs on the spraed firms corner supremacy markets. This is because of their impressive form so far in winning corners. At 1.9 we will get ourselves involved for a 1.5 pt stake.
 
Next up we are taking Zenit hotshot Arshavin to be the games 1st scorer. 11.0 is being offered by Boyles, Tote and Paddy Power and that is just too big for this wizard of a dribbler. Arshavin is also likely to take Russian penalty kicks and the majority of their free kicks so he is a clear and obvious threat. He is also fresh after missing games 1 and 2 through suspension. I am suggesting a 0.5 pt risk on Arshavin.
 
Finally we are going to take a chance on there being over 2.5 goals in this one. Games of this nature are always priced up with low goal expectations because of the importance of the game and each teams' desire not to go behind. With Sweden and Russia however, I cant see either team keeping a clean sheet! In defence both teams are far from watertight, in fact they are poor. Both teams do possess awesome attacking talent too. Ibrahimovic and Larsson have been a great double act so far this comp for the Swedes. In Arshavin the Russians have a forward of genuine world class ability. Canbet are going 2.42 on the OVERS and at that level I am happy to get involved. I suggest we stake 1.5 pts on this one.

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