The Sporting Day: Tennis Masters Cup

Shanghai is not a town renowned for its love of tennis. When thoughts turn to Shanghai it is vibrancy and commercialism, art and architecture that come to mind. The great port that links East and West hardly attracts thoughts of the gentility of tennis. Yet these days the financial capital of China plays host to one of the greatest tennis tournaments in the world, the Tennis Masters Cup. Generally revered as the unofficial fifth Grand Slam, the Masters Cup is a thrilling week of hardcourt action where the best play the best. The eight top ranked players in the world travel to Shanghai to play each other for a massive purse and a shot at further glory. Divided into two pools, players will get at least three chances to showcase their talents with the top two in each division meeting in the semi-finals. The format adds to the excitement like tomato sauce adds to a hot dog.

At this stage, tennis needs the Masters Cup. The sport has been rocked by ongoing scandal after ongoing scandal in recent times. From claims of match-fixing that has undermined the sport in the latter half of the season to the revelations that Martina Hingis tested positive to cocaine at Wimbledon through to recent assertions that Tommy Haas was poisoned while playing Davis Cup, tennis has been left in a state of turmoil. If ever a game needed a positive diversion, it is tennis.

The Masters Cup, with its quality and star power, provides just that.

The first pool is made up of Roger Federer, Nikolay Davydenko, Fernando Gonzalez and Andy Roddick. This pool will be won by three time tournament winner and undisputed world number one Roger Federer. Federer, who won the Masters undefeated in 2003-04 and 2006 and lost the final in 2005, has an amazing 22-2 record at the Masters and a 34-1 record against pool opponents. He is $1.57 to win the lot and will no doubt advance. The interest is in who will go through with him. Fernando Gonzalez has a terrible record against all three opponents (he has never beaten Federer or Davydenko and is only 3-6 against Roddick). Davydenko looks unlikely as he is feeling the effects of match-fixing allegations, injury and recent fines for lack of effort in two matches. That leaves Roddick. Roddick won’t beat Federer but will prove too good for Gonzalez and he has had Davydenko’s measure for a long time.

The second pool consists of Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, David Ferrer and Richard Gasquet. Richard Gasquet, the last qualifier and rank outsider, looks most unlikely to advance as he has never beaten any of his opponents. That leaves three with, somewhat surprisingly, each having beaten the other at some point. Djokovic and Nadal will most likely advance with Nadal tipped to defeat Djokovic, whom he has a 5-2 career advantage over. Saying that, do not rule Ferrer out as he is a fighter whose main advantage is the end-of-season timing of this where the chance of burnout among his opponents is high.

This would leave Federer to play Djokovic and Nadal to fight it out with Roddick. Federer holds a 5-1 lifetime advantage over Djokovic and should be too much. Djokovic appears to be feeling the pinch and Federer has too much class. The second semi-final should be much tighter. Nadal leads Roddick 2-1 in matches played but Roddick will appreciate the lightning surface and may prove value to make it through to the final. Federer should then dispatch of Roddick and claim his fourth Masters Cup in five years.

Roger Federer appears as if he can be bet at $1.57. A small each-way bet on Andy Roddick at the $17 should be an adequate saver.

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