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by Punting Ace » Wed May 21, 2008 6:54 pm
2008 Champions League Final
This Wednesday in Moscow sees English Football's top 2 teams meet to decide the winner of this year's Champions League. Man Utd and Chelsea have fought tooth and nail on the domestic front together for the past 9 months and now one night of football will dictate how their seasons are judged. It is a game that is tough to call and one which the Bookmakers in the main have priced up with almost every possibility covered. We will aim here to seek out the small value that does exist and highlight to inflict pain and misery on the unfortunate Bookie!!
In my opinion this game has a very real danger of being a damp squid! The 2 teams are so closely matched and so familar with each other that I cannot envisage this becoming a high scoring game packed with entertainment. What I do envisage is a tight tactical affair with chances at a premium and goal very tough to find. Extra time is a distinct possibility and even Penalty kicks may be needed to seperate these two sides. It is on this theory of a tight game that we are basing our betting strategy.
Our first bet is funnily enough backing no goalscorer at VC Bet at 7.5 . As I outlined above there is a distinct possibility of a bore draw here. This is just a smidge too big for me and is a half point bet. With both teams so adept at defending I feel its wise for us to keep this scoreline on our side.
Following on in a similar vein we are backing 0-1 goals at 2.50 with Stan James/Bet Direct. Again this to me represents just a smidge of value and protects our 0-0 bet in the case of a winning strike. Its just another half point to be staked here.
For those of you with access to Spread Betting I would also advise you to use this avenue to oppose goals. At Sporting Index or Sports Acumen you can sell the Total Goals in 90 mins at 2.1. In my mind this should be a 2.0 mid point so it represents a tenth of a goal of value. Risk just 1pt here if you can access these prices.
Finally, we are also backing the Half time Draw. Even Money is available at Centrebet and this again represents just a smidge for us. We will again risk a half point and hope that the cagey stand off gets us to half time at 0-0 at least!!
© 2008 Punting Ace.com
PAce
This Wednesday in Moscow sees English Football's top 2 teams meet to decide the winner of this year's Champions League. Man Utd and Chelsea have fought tooth and nail on the domestic front together for the past 9 months and now one night of football will dictate how their seasons are judged. It is a game that is tough to call and one which the Bookmakers in the main have priced up with almost every possibility covered. We will aim here to seek out the small value that does exist and highlight to inflict pain and misery on the unfortunate Bookie!!
In my opinion this game has a very real danger of being a damp squid! The 2 teams are so closely matched and so familar with each other that I cannot envisage this becoming a high scoring game packed with entertainment. What I do envisage is a tight tactical affair with chances at a premium and goal very tough to find. Extra time is a distinct possibility and even Penalty kicks may be needed to seperate these two sides. It is on this theory of a tight game that we are basing our betting strategy.
Our first bet is funnily enough backing no goalscorer at VC Bet at 7.5 . As I outlined above there is a distinct possibility of a bore draw here. This is just a smidge too big for me and is a half point bet. With both teams so adept at defending I feel its wise for us to keep this scoreline on our side.
Following on in a similar vein we are backing 0-1 goals at 2.50 with Stan James/Bet Direct. Again this to me represents just a smidge of value and protects our 0-0 bet in the case of a winning strike. Its just another half point to be staked here.
For those of you with access to Spread Betting I would also advise you to use this avenue to oppose goals. At Sporting Index or Sports Acumen you can sell the Total Goals in 90 mins at 2.1. In my mind this should be a 2.0 mid point so it represents a tenth of a goal of value. Risk just 1pt here if you can access these prices.
Finally, we are also backing the Half time Draw. Even Money is available at Centrebet and this again represents just a smidge for us. We will again risk a half point and hope that the cagey stand off gets us to half time at 0-0 at least!!
© 2008 Punting Ace.com
PAce
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by Punting Ace » Fri May 23, 2008 9:43 am
Euro 2008 Preview Part 1.
Saturday June 7 heralds the start of the European Championships co-hosted by Switzerland and Austria. As ever there is great depth in terms of quality at the tournament and there are certain to be at least a few shocks between now and the Final. The usual suspects head the betting with Germany, France, Italy and Spain all well fancied and packed with superstars from the UEFA Champions League. As well as these household names, the competition is again packed with teams who will not just be organised and well drilled but also technically superb and tactically astute.
This is Part 1 of what is set to be a 2 Part Preview. Part 2 will be available in the next 7-10 days once Bookmakers reveal more of their exotic and special type markets. These markets will offer value on things such as team top scorer, most clean sheets, goal scorer match bets and total yellow cards!! For now we will mainly concentrate on Tournament and Group Winner prices with a few extra's thrown in for good measure.
The European Championships have in recent times thrown up a number of suprises. Think back to Denmark in 1992, Czech Republic Runners Up in 1996 and Greece in 2004. In this year's event I believe there may be another team to emerge from the shadows and trouble the traditional superpowers of Europe. As Australians you will all be aware of Guus Hiddink's unique managerial talent. As Coach of Russia I expect him to again have big tournament success. Zenit St Petersburg showed in their well deserved UEFA Cup triumph that Russian football is flourishing right now. Technically they have some of the most gifted ball players in the championship with Andrei Arshavin likely to be one of the new found stars once he returns from an early suspension. In their favour is a wide open group from which to qualify. Greece, Sweden and Spain although tough work are far from insurmountable. Another factor to aid the Russians is that their players are only just into their domestic season and therefore are not affected by the weariness of the central european nations. At 34.0 with Sportsbet, Will Hill, Totem & Bet Fred I suggest a half point bet.
Next on the Winners list is Portugal at 9.0 with Centrebet. For me they currently possess the world's best player in Cristiano Ronaldo. They are also placed in a group from which they will struggle not to qualify and have a more than fair route to the final. As well as Ronaldo they also have a wealth of attacking flair and defensive strength. In Bosingwa and Carvalho they have 2 of the best defenders on the continent. Combine that with the creativity of Deco, Simao and Quaresma and they make a strong case. The price of 9.0 is just too big for me not to take an interest. I would not argue that they are on paper the best team in the tournament but they are by no means 8/1 shots, and especially so given their route to the final. Stake 1 pt each way on the Portugeezers !!
Next up we have a couple of bets focussing on Group qualification. First of all we are backing the Co Hosts Switzerland to progress to the Knockout stages. Stan James are 2.38 about the Swiss doing so and for me thats more than a touch generous. With Portugal in their group it does make a top 2 place a challenging ask. However they also face an ageing and below par Czech Republic as well as an unpredictable Turkish team that could either flourish or fail. With home advantage being worth so much in these events, think South Korea World Cup 2002, we have to side with the Swiss. I make this a 2.10 shot and expect the Swiss to easily confound their critics. With this taken into account I would suggest a 3.5 pt stake.
Our other to qualify bet is Russia! Obviously this is no suprise given the above selection! At 2.50 with Blue Sq & Bet 365 I make this a smidge too big. We are just staking a half point here. Group D is a closely matched foursome where anything can happen. For me I just feel Hiddink can edge his team over that line and into the Knockout rounds.
Next up we head to Sportsbet and aim to get stuck into their specials on the tournament head to heads. This market is simply two teams progress versus each other. If both teams are eliminated at the same stage the bet is refunded. First of all we are backing Italy at 2.50 to out do the Germans. Obviously Italy have the tougher group and this is the main basis for the difference in price between the 2 sides. For me however the Germans are being a touch overrated and the form of Podolski, Klose and Schweinsteiger would be a big worry. I expect them to probably make the Semi's and then be eliminated by Portugal! Italy do have a fairly tough group but in fact they have more than enough ability to qualify from here. In Luca Toni they have one of the world's leading strikers and as ever they are resilient in defence and strong in the midfield. At these prices I think you have to take the Italians, stake 1.5 pts on this one.
Next up on the same market we are siding with Russia to outdo Sweden. Even Money is available and that to me is big. I have Russia as superior in my ratings to Sweden. Henrik Larsson is over the hill whilst Zlatan Ibrahimovic to me always fails on the biggest stage in the Yellow of his homeland. With Hiddink acting as tactical mastermind and the freshness of the Russian domestic players, we have to again place our faith with the Moscovites. At Even Money risk 1pt.
Next up we have two goalscorer bets. Firstly we are going for Luca Toni at 17.0 for the Golden Boot. Back 1.5 pts each way at Corals or Blue Sq on the big Italian Hitman. Toni has been terrorising Bundesliga defences all year long and I expect him to carry this form into the Euro's. Italy rely almost completely on their main man to get them the goals they need. In fact Toni would be in for 40% of their goals pre tournament which once all other contenders are accounted for has him in for more goals than any other player. If Italy make the last 4 I fully expect us to collect here, with place terms the minimum. The attraction with Toni is that unlike Henry, Torres, Villa and some other contenders he is a guaranteed starter in every match. In my eyes he is the second favourite behind Ronaldo and even then a very close 2nd fav indeed.
Our other goalscorer bet is a bigger price effort on the top France scorer market. Frank Ribery is available here at 11.0 with Bet365. Ribery is the penalty taker for France and also one of their definite starters in attack. With Henry and Benzema unlikely to play together and thus taking game time off each other, Ribery is left with a clearer run at glory! The winger has been in good scoring form for Munich this season and if this price lasts its well worth a 1pt investment.
The final selection for part 1 of the Euro 2008 preview is based on my opinion that Holland are set for a crashing fall this summer. For me this is a poor Dutch side. They are still priced up as a big hitter on the basis of their former achievements rather than current ability. They are also in the toughest group and I simply cannot see them progressing. Interestingly they were also beaten into 2nd place in tournament qualifying by apparent group whipping boys Romania! Romania are certainly no mugs. In fact it would not suprise me at all if they sneaked through this stage at the expense of two of the bigger names. SkyBet and Blue Sq are offering 5.0 on Holland to finish bottom of the group and thats a price I like. We will risk 1.5 pts here and hope the boys in Orange go home with Red faces.
© 2008 Punting Ace.com
PAce
Saturday June 7 heralds the start of the European Championships co-hosted by Switzerland and Austria. As ever there is great depth in terms of quality at the tournament and there are certain to be at least a few shocks between now and the Final. The usual suspects head the betting with Germany, France, Italy and Spain all well fancied and packed with superstars from the UEFA Champions League. As well as these household names, the competition is again packed with teams who will not just be organised and well drilled but also technically superb and tactically astute.
This is Part 1 of what is set to be a 2 Part Preview. Part 2 will be available in the next 7-10 days once Bookmakers reveal more of their exotic and special type markets. These markets will offer value on things such as team top scorer, most clean sheets, goal scorer match bets and total yellow cards!! For now we will mainly concentrate on Tournament and Group Winner prices with a few extra's thrown in for good measure.
The European Championships have in recent times thrown up a number of suprises. Think back to Denmark in 1992, Czech Republic Runners Up in 1996 and Greece in 2004. In this year's event I believe there may be another team to emerge from the shadows and trouble the traditional superpowers of Europe. As Australians you will all be aware of Guus Hiddink's unique managerial talent. As Coach of Russia I expect him to again have big tournament success. Zenit St Petersburg showed in their well deserved UEFA Cup triumph that Russian football is flourishing right now. Technically they have some of the most gifted ball players in the championship with Andrei Arshavin likely to be one of the new found stars once he returns from an early suspension. In their favour is a wide open group from which to qualify. Greece, Sweden and Spain although tough work are far from insurmountable. Another factor to aid the Russians is that their players are only just into their domestic season and therefore are not affected by the weariness of the central european nations. At 34.0 with Sportsbet, Will Hill, Totem & Bet Fred I suggest a half point bet.
Next on the Winners list is Portugal at 9.0 with Centrebet. For me they currently possess the world's best player in Cristiano Ronaldo. They are also placed in a group from which they will struggle not to qualify and have a more than fair route to the final. As well as Ronaldo they also have a wealth of attacking flair and defensive strength. In Bosingwa and Carvalho they have 2 of the best defenders on the continent. Combine that with the creativity of Deco, Simao and Quaresma and they make a strong case. The price of 9.0 is just too big for me not to take an interest. I would not argue that they are on paper the best team in the tournament but they are by no means 8/1 shots, and especially so given their route to the final. Stake 1 pt each way on the Portugeezers !!
Next up we have a couple of bets focussing on Group qualification. First of all we are backing the Co Hosts Switzerland to progress to the Knockout stages. Stan James are 2.38 about the Swiss doing so and for me thats more than a touch generous. With Portugal in their group it does make a top 2 place a challenging ask. However they also face an ageing and below par Czech Republic as well as an unpredictable Turkish team that could either flourish or fail. With home advantage being worth so much in these events, think South Korea World Cup 2002, we have to side with the Swiss. I make this a 2.10 shot and expect the Swiss to easily confound their critics. With this taken into account I would suggest a 3.5 pt stake.
Our other to qualify bet is Russia! Obviously this is no suprise given the above selection! At 2.50 with Blue Sq & Bet 365 I make this a smidge too big. We are just staking a half point here. Group D is a closely matched foursome where anything can happen. For me I just feel Hiddink can edge his team over that line and into the Knockout rounds.
Next up we head to Sportsbet and aim to get stuck into their specials on the tournament head to heads. This market is simply two teams progress versus each other. If both teams are eliminated at the same stage the bet is refunded. First of all we are backing Italy at 2.50 to out do the Germans. Obviously Italy have the tougher group and this is the main basis for the difference in price between the 2 sides. For me however the Germans are being a touch overrated and the form of Podolski, Klose and Schweinsteiger would be a big worry. I expect them to probably make the Semi's and then be eliminated by Portugal! Italy do have a fairly tough group but in fact they have more than enough ability to qualify from here. In Luca Toni they have one of the world's leading strikers and as ever they are resilient in defence and strong in the midfield. At these prices I think you have to take the Italians, stake 1.5 pts on this one.
Next up on the same market we are siding with Russia to outdo Sweden. Even Money is available and that to me is big. I have Russia as superior in my ratings to Sweden. Henrik Larsson is over the hill whilst Zlatan Ibrahimovic to me always fails on the biggest stage in the Yellow of his homeland. With Hiddink acting as tactical mastermind and the freshness of the Russian domestic players, we have to again place our faith with the Moscovites. At Even Money risk 1pt.
Next up we have two goalscorer bets. Firstly we are going for Luca Toni at 17.0 for the Golden Boot. Back 1.5 pts each way at Corals or Blue Sq on the big Italian Hitman. Toni has been terrorising Bundesliga defences all year long and I expect him to carry this form into the Euro's. Italy rely almost completely on their main man to get them the goals they need. In fact Toni would be in for 40% of their goals pre tournament which once all other contenders are accounted for has him in for more goals than any other player. If Italy make the last 4 I fully expect us to collect here, with place terms the minimum. The attraction with Toni is that unlike Henry, Torres, Villa and some other contenders he is a guaranteed starter in every match. In my eyes he is the second favourite behind Ronaldo and even then a very close 2nd fav indeed.
Our other goalscorer bet is a bigger price effort on the top France scorer market. Frank Ribery is available here at 11.0 with Bet365. Ribery is the penalty taker for France and also one of their definite starters in attack. With Henry and Benzema unlikely to play together and thus taking game time off each other, Ribery is left with a clearer run at glory! The winger has been in good scoring form for Munich this season and if this price lasts its well worth a 1pt investment.
The final selection for part 1 of the Euro 2008 preview is based on my opinion that Holland are set for a crashing fall this summer. For me this is a poor Dutch side. They are still priced up as a big hitter on the basis of their former achievements rather than current ability. They are also in the toughest group and I simply cannot see them progressing. Interestingly they were also beaten into 2nd place in tournament qualifying by apparent group whipping boys Romania! Romania are certainly no mugs. In fact it would not suprise me at all if they sneaked through this stage at the expense of two of the bigger names. SkyBet and Blue Sq are offering 5.0 on Holland to finish bottom of the group and thats a price I like. We will risk 1.5 pts here and hope the boys in Orange go home with Red faces.
© 2008 Punting Ace.com
PAce
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by Plastered » Fri May 23, 2008 3:24 pm
Dial A Bet looks to be the only bookie in the universe still offering 9.0 for Portugal
Anybody able to find any other books offering the H2H bets which Sportsbet have turned down?
And what about alternative books offering odds for top goalscorer from each country?
Anybody able to find any other books offering the H2H bets which Sportsbet have turned down?
And what about alternative books offering odds for top goalscorer from each country?
It's not the strike rate, nor the % POT.
The prize is for the fattest bottom line.
The prize is for the fattest bottom line.
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Plastered - Seasoned Professional
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by Plastered » Fri May 23, 2008 4:17 pm
Plastered wrote:Dial A Bet looks to be the only bookie in the universe still offering 9.0 for Portugal
I was wrong .... The Greek has 9.0 also
It's not the strike rate, nor the % POT.
The prize is for the fattest bottom line.
The prize is for the fattest bottom line.
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Plastered - Seasoned Professional
- Posts: 6929
- Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2005 4:28 pm
- Location: Melbourne
by Punting Ace » Thu Jun 05, 2008 9:53 am
Euro 2008 Preview Part 2.
As the Championships near their start so we must take our next step into building our portfolio of bets for the month ahead. A number of "special" markets are now available although quite how long certain prices will last is anyone's question. Hopefully the layers will allow everyone a chance to have a cheer during this Austrian-Swiss summer.
The first of these special bets to take advantage of is a goalscorer matchbet with Centrebet. They have Thierry Henry at even money against Spain's David Villa. The key here is that Henry is a guaranteed starter for France whilst Villa is an unlikely first pick. Spain coach Aragones favours a 4-1-4-1 system with Fernando Torres as his main striker. Obviously Villa will still play a central role to their success but I calculate him to have a goals expectation of 1.1 for the tournament. Henry on the other hand is a certain first pick for a French team who will expect to make the knockout stage. In my mind Henry is in for 1.5 goals in the Championships and is thus a bet at 2.0. I suggest a 1pt stake here.
Centrebet have another of these matchbets which again draws my attention. Fabregas vs Van Der Vaart is our next port of call and we are backing the Spaniard to come out on top. Fabregas will be a fundamental part of a succesful Spanish campaign. Van Der Vaart himself may well have a big impact on Euro 2008 but his chances are made much harder by the group in which the Netherlands find themselves. Fabregas has group games against Russia, Sweden and Greece to find the net plus expected later stage games too. The dutch are outsiders to qualify from their group including Italy and France. For me Fabregas should be favourite here, stake 1pt again at 2.0.
We have one final speculative punt to have with Centrebet before finally leaving their traders alone! They have a market priced up for top scoring defender. As we already mentioned Spain have a particularly straightforward group draw. This will aid their attacking full back Sergio Ramos to hit the net. Ramos has been a consistent for Real Madrid over the last 2 years and his buccaneering style will be in evidence again in this tournament. At 9.0 just stake a 0.2pt and cheer him on.
A slightly more obscure bet is on the top Polish scorer market with Ladbrokes. Smolarek at 3.5 is the bet here for a 1.5pt stake. Smolarek has forged himself a good reputation in La Liga with Racing Santander and his form in the qualifying matches was superb. In such a tough group its likely that the top Polish scorer may only find the net once. If that is the case then its more than likely that Smolarek will be the man so place your trust in Racing's golden boy.
For those of you with acess to Spread Betting I would also suggest selling Holland on the outright index at 23 with Sporting Index. For me the Dutch have big problems. There are no doubts surrounding the ability of their forwards. The worry lies with their defence which apart from Van Der Saar is distinctly second class. In an opening group with Italy and France also present, a sound defence is essential. I simply cant see them overcoming these obstacles and also expect Romania to cause them a big amount of trouble. At 23 they are a sell for a 1pt risk.
We finish our round up here with 2 group straight forecast bets. The first is Group A where we are backing Portugal to finish top with Switzerland. The 6.5 at Sportingbet and generally available with UK firms is a half point stake to me. This market is listed as 'Group Exactas' at Sportingbet . As I outlined in Part 1 of our summary I feel home support will carry the Swiss through at the expense of an average Czech side. And finally in Group D we are punting on a Spain 1 - Russia 2 combo. This is a standout at 5.75 with Centrebet and even 5.50 at Sportingbet so stake a 1/3pt here.
© 2008 Punting Ace.com
PAce
As the Championships near their start so we must take our next step into building our portfolio of bets for the month ahead. A number of "special" markets are now available although quite how long certain prices will last is anyone's question. Hopefully the layers will allow everyone a chance to have a cheer during this Austrian-Swiss summer.
The first of these special bets to take advantage of is a goalscorer matchbet with Centrebet. They have Thierry Henry at even money against Spain's David Villa. The key here is that Henry is a guaranteed starter for France whilst Villa is an unlikely first pick. Spain coach Aragones favours a 4-1-4-1 system with Fernando Torres as his main striker. Obviously Villa will still play a central role to their success but I calculate him to have a goals expectation of 1.1 for the tournament. Henry on the other hand is a certain first pick for a French team who will expect to make the knockout stage. In my mind Henry is in for 1.5 goals in the Championships and is thus a bet at 2.0. I suggest a 1pt stake here.
Centrebet have another of these matchbets which again draws my attention. Fabregas vs Van Der Vaart is our next port of call and we are backing the Spaniard to come out on top. Fabregas will be a fundamental part of a succesful Spanish campaign. Van Der Vaart himself may well have a big impact on Euro 2008 but his chances are made much harder by the group in which the Netherlands find themselves. Fabregas has group games against Russia, Sweden and Greece to find the net plus expected later stage games too. The dutch are outsiders to qualify from their group including Italy and France. For me Fabregas should be favourite here, stake 1pt again at 2.0.
We have one final speculative punt to have with Centrebet before finally leaving their traders alone! They have a market priced up for top scoring defender. As we already mentioned Spain have a particularly straightforward group draw. This will aid their attacking full back Sergio Ramos to hit the net. Ramos has been a consistent for Real Madrid over the last 2 years and his buccaneering style will be in evidence again in this tournament. At 9.0 just stake a 0.2pt and cheer him on.
A slightly more obscure bet is on the top Polish scorer market with Ladbrokes. Smolarek at 3.5 is the bet here for a 1.5pt stake. Smolarek has forged himself a good reputation in La Liga with Racing Santander and his form in the qualifying matches was superb. In such a tough group its likely that the top Polish scorer may only find the net once. If that is the case then its more than likely that Smolarek will be the man so place your trust in Racing's golden boy.
For those of you with acess to Spread Betting I would also suggest selling Holland on the outright index at 23 with Sporting Index. For me the Dutch have big problems. There are no doubts surrounding the ability of their forwards. The worry lies with their defence which apart from Van Der Saar is distinctly second class. In an opening group with Italy and France also present, a sound defence is essential. I simply cant see them overcoming these obstacles and also expect Romania to cause them a big amount of trouble. At 23 they are a sell for a 1pt risk.
We finish our round up here with 2 group straight forecast bets. The first is Group A where we are backing Portugal to finish top with Switzerland. The 6.5 at Sportingbet and generally available with UK firms is a half point stake to me. This market is listed as 'Group Exactas' at Sportingbet . As I outlined in Part 1 of our summary I feel home support will carry the Swiss through at the expense of an average Czech side. And finally in Group D we are punting on a Spain 1 - Russia 2 combo. This is a standout at 5.75 with Centrebet and even 5.50 at Sportingbet so stake a 1/3pt here.
© 2008 Punting Ace.com
PAce
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Punting Ace - Administrator
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by Punting Ace » Fri Jun 06, 2008 2:54 pm
Euro 2008 - Day 1
The European Championship's 2008 begin with hosts Switzerland facing the Czech Republic. It is a fixture which is likely to prove pivotal to the outcome of the group and is likely to be a tight tense affair with a modicum of good football. My betting strategy for this game is to favour the home side and to oppose goals.
The first bet we will be having is to back Switzerland on the Draw No Bet market at Evens with Boyles Sports. I have the Swiss as narrow favourites on their own turf, especially with Czech star Thomas Rosicky out injured. The Czech side have been a constant menace on the european stage in recent years but they are now an ageing side and are bereft of some of their former top performers. With fervent home support behind them I cant see the Swiss suffering an opening day reverse. Home advantage is such a big part of these championships that it cant easily be written off. At Even money we will stake 1.5pts.
Our next bet is backing 0-1 Goals at 2.75 with Ladbrokes. Goals in the opening games have averaged prohibitively low over history and this game appears no exception. I make this price just a tiny bit too big, its by no means a rick. It is however value though so I would suggest a half point bet.
If Switzerland are to score in this game then its a short price that frontman Alex Frei will be the name on the scoresheet. Frei is a prolific marksman in the Bundesliga whilst his record in a Switzerland shirt is nothing short of awesome. I calculate him as being in for 40% of their team goals and that is quite some amount. By chalking the Swiss up as marginal favourites and rating the goals at 2.1, this all adds up to make Frei a 6.0 1st Goalscorer shot. Ladbrokes are offering him at 8.0 Each way (1/2 odds first 3 goals) so at those odds we will risk 1pt each way.
Our final bet in the opening game is another that predicts against goals. The early stages in this match will be particularly tight in my opinion. Neither team will want to concede early and be chasing their tournament future from the first few minutes. With the added significance that this game holds in terms of the group I just cant see this being a wide open goal fest of a first half. With all this considered we cast our eye over the half time correct score market. With Blue Sq and Boyles you can back the 0-0 draw at 2.5. To me this is definitely value and I would subsequently suggest a 2pt trade.
The second match on day 1 is between our antepost cheer Portugal and the unpredictable Turkey. Just how this game will pan out I am slightly unsure. The Turkish side is full of creative and technically gifted players but it is also full of temperamental players who arent defensively the best. The one thing we can be sure of is that Cristiano Ronaldo will have a big say in proceedings. The Man Utd forward is as important to his national team as he is for his club side. Thankfully for us Centrebet and Sportsbet have slightly underestimated his value here and have offered him at generous odds to score first. The 6.0 available is concrete value, I suggest a 1.5 pt stake based on the Madeiran being in for 35% of Portugal's total goals.
The next bet I am suggesting is to back the Half Time Draw at 2.2 at Betfair. As I said above I dont expect to see the early stages of these matches to be wide open contests. Portugal are tight defensively and on the other hand I dont envisage the Turks being easy to crack early on. The price is just a touch bigger than I would want to be so its just a 0.25 pt bet here.
Our final effort is on the Correct Score market. With the emphasis on tight defences in the early games I dont expect Portugal to have this is all their own way. At the same time I'm sure Scolari will have his rearguard well drilled and extremely difficult to breach. With all this taken into consideration I feel that the 7.0 quoted on a 1-0 Portugal win is definitely value. Bet 1128 are offering this price currently and I would stake 1pt if it remains. If 6.5 at BlueSq or Centrebet is the best you can find then reduce your stake to 0.75 pts.
© 2008 Punting Ace.com
PAce
The European Championship's 2008 begin with hosts Switzerland facing the Czech Republic. It is a fixture which is likely to prove pivotal to the outcome of the group and is likely to be a tight tense affair with a modicum of good football. My betting strategy for this game is to favour the home side and to oppose goals.
The first bet we will be having is to back Switzerland on the Draw No Bet market at Evens with Boyles Sports. I have the Swiss as narrow favourites on their own turf, especially with Czech star Thomas Rosicky out injured. The Czech side have been a constant menace on the european stage in recent years but they are now an ageing side and are bereft of some of their former top performers. With fervent home support behind them I cant see the Swiss suffering an opening day reverse. Home advantage is such a big part of these championships that it cant easily be written off. At Even money we will stake 1.5pts.
Our next bet is backing 0-1 Goals at 2.75 with Ladbrokes. Goals in the opening games have averaged prohibitively low over history and this game appears no exception. I make this price just a tiny bit too big, its by no means a rick. It is however value though so I would suggest a half point bet.
If Switzerland are to score in this game then its a short price that frontman Alex Frei will be the name on the scoresheet. Frei is a prolific marksman in the Bundesliga whilst his record in a Switzerland shirt is nothing short of awesome. I calculate him as being in for 40% of their team goals and that is quite some amount. By chalking the Swiss up as marginal favourites and rating the goals at 2.1, this all adds up to make Frei a 6.0 1st Goalscorer shot. Ladbrokes are offering him at 8.0 Each way (1/2 odds first 3 goals) so at those odds we will risk 1pt each way.
Our final bet in the opening game is another that predicts against goals. The early stages in this match will be particularly tight in my opinion. Neither team will want to concede early and be chasing their tournament future from the first few minutes. With the added significance that this game holds in terms of the group I just cant see this being a wide open goal fest of a first half. With all this considered we cast our eye over the half time correct score market. With Blue Sq and Boyles you can back the 0-0 draw at 2.5. To me this is definitely value and I would subsequently suggest a 2pt trade.
The second match on day 1 is between our antepost cheer Portugal and the unpredictable Turkey. Just how this game will pan out I am slightly unsure. The Turkish side is full of creative and technically gifted players but it is also full of temperamental players who arent defensively the best. The one thing we can be sure of is that Cristiano Ronaldo will have a big say in proceedings. The Man Utd forward is as important to his national team as he is for his club side. Thankfully for us Centrebet and Sportsbet have slightly underestimated his value here and have offered him at generous odds to score first. The 6.0 available is concrete value, I suggest a 1.5 pt stake based on the Madeiran being in for 35% of Portugal's total goals.
The next bet I am suggesting is to back the Half Time Draw at 2.2 at Betfair. As I said above I dont expect to see the early stages of these matches to be wide open contests. Portugal are tight defensively and on the other hand I dont envisage the Turks being easy to crack early on. The price is just a touch bigger than I would want to be so its just a 0.25 pt bet here.
Our final effort is on the Correct Score market. With the emphasis on tight defences in the early games I dont expect Portugal to have this is all their own way. At the same time I'm sure Scolari will have his rearguard well drilled and extremely difficult to breach. With all this taken into consideration I feel that the 7.0 quoted on a 1-0 Portugal win is definitely value. Bet 1128 are offering this price currently and I would stake 1pt if it remains. If 6.5 at BlueSq or Centrebet is the best you can find then reduce your stake to 0.75 pts.
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PAce
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Punting Ace - Administrator
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by Plastered » Sat Jun 07, 2008 4:59 pm
zacisawhale wrote:interesting stuff, thanks mr. soccer.
yep but not easy finding several of those prices
It's not the strike rate, nor the % POT.
The prize is for the fattest bottom line.
The prize is for the fattest bottom line.
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Plastered - Seasoned Professional
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by Plastered » Sun Jun 08, 2008 2:06 pm
deeg wrote:Per Mertesacker-1st scorer, still $51 at Bill Hurley & TAB Vic
Deeg
hmmm .. I saw one market without him listed at all .. do they know something?
It's not the strike rate, nor the % POT.
The prize is for the fattest bottom line.
The prize is for the fattest bottom line.
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Plastered - Seasoned Professional
- Posts: 6929
- Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2005 4:28 pm
- Location: Melbourne
by Plastered » Sun Jun 08, 2008 2:55 pm
I don't know what time the Day 2 post went up but it must have been after 10pm and was before 5:30am this morning
Is there a standard time we can expect these in future PAce?
Is there a standard time we can expect these in future PAce?
It's not the strike rate, nor the % POT.
The prize is for the fattest bottom line.
The prize is for the fattest bottom line.
-
Plastered - Seasoned Professional
- Posts: 6929
- Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2005 4:28 pm
- Location: Melbourne
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