IPL Betting Guide
LIKE the funky new age of the World Series revolution of the late 1970s, cricket will change forever when Bangalore takes on Kolkata in the first game of the Indian Premier League on April 18.
Actually, the IPL has already changed the game forever with cricketers traded like stocks with million-dollar pricetags on their heads in two auctions for the lucrative 20-over competition. Once more, the dollar is king in the world of cricket. And the future is now with little likelihood that cricket will ever be the same again.
For the uninitiated, the IPL was created as a reaction to the rebel Indian Cricket League (ICL) with administrators from India and Australia leading the charge. The powers-that-be feared losing not only the best players in the world to the rebel league but also expressed concerns about losing control of the shortened format of the game. The only solution was an officially-sanctioned tournament that would provide a flowing revenue stream as well as ensuring the best players remained eligible for international duty. Hence, the formation of the IPL.
The officially-sanctioned tournament will feature many of the world's top players turning out for privately-owned franchises in the bash-and-crash 20-over format. Though the teams are all based in Indian cities, the tournament has a distinctly international feel with stars from across the world taking part. In Australia, Network Ten splurged over $10 million to show the games which will be screened late at night Australian time.
Betting Strategies
One of the key planks to making money is to keep an eagle eye on which players will be available at various stages of the tournament. Two Test series (Australia v West Indies and England v New Zealand) clash with the IPL, so players from those countries most likely will not be available at various stages of the IPL while others will be present and accounted for throughout the entire program of matches.
Australian players such as Andrew Symonds, Ricky Ponting and Brett Lee will be available to play for their franchises for the first two weeks of the competition but won't be on deck when Australia is touring the West Indies. This will do Hyderabad no favours as they are unlikely to have the livewire all-rounder for the competition finals. Meanwhile, the West Indies Cricket Board may have no choice but to allow their elite players such as Chris Gayle to play in the IPL as leading Windies players have already flagged they will choose IPL cash over country.
Determining the availability of players is paramount to making any money in IPL futures markets. Apart from keeping a close watch on availability, the other key betting advice is to bank on teams with several strong batsmen/allrounders and at least one, or preferably two, quality spinners.
The Twenty20 form guide has shown that the format is an allrounder's paradise and teams need several strong batsmen, rather than just one superstar, to bankroll their batting. You want to be able to back a team that has three or four batsmen who can potentially smash a rapid-fire 60 or 80. Good spinners are also vital in the 20-over format because they can force frustration, especially as the IPL will be played in India with pitches custom-made for spin. Time has proven that when batsmen are forced to make the pace in the 20-over version, they tend to struggle a lot more than when the ball is coming onto the bat. Pacemen are generally next to useless unless they have a superb change of pace or an ability to swing the ball in the air.
It is also important to remember that this is 20-over cricket, which compresses the talent gap between teams and means that the superior side on paper has a greater chance of being beaten by an inferior side than in a longer format. A top side can have a bad 10 overs in 50-over cricket and can recover without too much trouble. A bad 5 overs in 20-over cricket spells trouble with a capital T. So always look for value, and remember that betting fluctuations in this form of cricket will be so huge that both teams will almost certainly be favourite on several occasions during play.
How We Assess The Teams
* Market rated to 100%
BANGALORE (Rated 8.0)
On paper they look to have a few fading stars with Rahul Dravid, Jacques Kallis and Shiv Chanderpaul all in the Bangalore lineup. Their batting looks a little light on but they could be one of the surprise packets of the competition with some classy spin that makes them a most dangerous proposition. We love the fact they have seasoned spinner Anil Kumble - in the form of his life - on board and Aussie Cameron White will be available for all of the competition and is a world-class allrounder. Toss in outstanding keeper-batsman Mark Boucher and Australian top class allrounder Ashley Noffke who replaces the injured Nathan Bracken - and they could get under the guard of many of their higher fancied rivals. Unheralded South African Dale Steyn took more Test wickets than any other paceman in 2007 and will be a trump. If their ageing batting stars can produce their best, they will be hard to toss.
CHENNAI (Rated 8.0)
The Kepler Wessels coached franchise has six left-handed batsmen in their team including big names Matthew Hayden, Mike Hussey and Stephen Fleming. We think Kiwi Jacob Oram is a made-to-order Twenty20 player but his availability for the entire tournament remains to be seen. They paid $1.5 million for MS Dhoni but probably more valuable is Muttiah Muralidaran, who will be a huge weapon in this format of the game. They are one of the favourites for the competition but Hayden and Hussey almost certainly won't be there at the business end. They are a risk at the current price.
DELHI (Rated 17.0)
Delhi are too short on batting quality to threaten with only Virender Sehwag and local hero Gautam Gambhir causing any consternation for opposition bowlers. Simply, they will struggle to get enough runs with enough regularity to be a force despite having a quality bowling lineup that includes Glenn McGrath, Mohammad Asif and quality spinner Daniel Vettori. A further concern is that all of their specialist bowlers are foreign players and each team is only allowed four overseas players in their starting XI. The bottom line with Delhi is they don't have enough batting depth and their class players are either too unpredictable - like Sehwag and Asif - or well past their best, like the retired McGrath.
HYDERABAD (Rated 3.9)
Hyderabad are the early favourites and it is tough to disagree when the team is packed with exhilarating six-hitters like Adam Gilchrist, Andrew Symonds, Shahid Afridi and Herschelle Gibbs. The only big name player they are likely to lose for the important end of the tournament is Symonds. While he will be a big loss, there are other quality players like India's Rohit Sharma - hailed as the next Sachin Tendulkar - and VVS Laxman who can step up to the mark. Their only downside is they have no real topline spinners. Simply, the variety in their bowling looks a bit limited. However, it's a batsmen's game and Hyderabad has this department covered in spades. It is hard to see them being tossed - except for the fact that it's 20-over cricket and anything can happen and almost always does.
JAIPUR (Rated 21.0)
SHANE Warne is their big name - so they certainly aren't lacking a quality spinner - but they don't have enough depth to be competitive. They will be relying on batsmen like Justin Langer - who isn't suited to 20-over cricket - and Shane Watson, who is ever only a few minutes away from injury. We also can't see the combination of Warne and South African skipper Graeme Smith being all that cosy. These two blokes just don't like each other. As a result, team chemistry will suffer and Jaipur are likely to play as a team of individuals. With too many young Indians rounding out their list, it appears as if Jaipur are rounding out the numbers.
EDIT: Graeme Smith has now withdrawn after sustaining an injury in the in the drawn test series against India, and to cover his loss Shane Warne has managed to lure former team mate Darren Lehmann to make a shock comeback from retirement. The 38 year old Lehmann batsmen who bowls handy spin will replace Smith for at least the first four matches. He has not rulled out staying on with Jaipur if required as cover for the club, already fined for not spending enough money at Februarys IPL auction.
KOLKATA (Rated 9.0)
They boast plenty of big names like Shoaib Akhtar, Ricky Ponting, Chris Gayle and Ishant Sharma but we aren't sure how the feisty Sourav Ganguly will be able to mould this team. Furthermore, Ponting almost certainly won't be available at the pointy end of the tournament. Chris Gayle, however, should be a big hit and David Hussey is one of the form players in the world in this form of the game. We think they will be a around the mark but would be waiting to see how they gel before plonking any hard earned on them. It helps that the experienced John Buchanan is in charge.
MOHALI (Rated 5.5)
We really like the look of this franchise with Yuvraj Singh - the Indian destroyer who hit six sixes off an over last year - as the marquee player. Yuvraj may not have the head for Test cricket but he doesn't have to think about this - just whack and crack. Kumar Sangakarra, arguably the world's best limited overs batsman, the impressive Mahela Jayawardene and improving Australian allrounder James Hopes are also headline acts. They could do with a quality spinner but Brett Lee will be there in the early days and he is one paceman who is probably suited to Twenty20 with his high-speed and new-found accuracy. Local bowling hero Sreesanth is also one to watch while rising Aussie Luke Pomersbach is another batting weapon. They have the talent to triumph over their more fancied rivals.
MUMBAI (Rated 10.0)
Any team that boasts Sachin Tendulkar and Harbhajan Singh in their local conditions is obviously going to be hard to beat. On the basis of those two players alone, they deserve to be one of the favourites. However, outside of Tendulkar and ageing star Sanath Jayasuriya, there are question marks over whether Mumbai have the batting firepower to go all the way. A lot will depend on how Tendulkar fires - if he scores big at the top of the innings they will win - but they probably won't if he doesn't. Shaun Pollock can be a good weapon with the ball but he can also go for plenty if the veteran South African has lost another yard of place. Prefer to wait and see with this mob.
Suggested Bets
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Bet 1 unit on Mohali @ 6.0 or better (7.0 Lasseters)
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Bet 0.5 of a unit on Bangalore at 9.0 or better (9.0 Lasseters)
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© 2008 Punting Ace.com
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