West Indies v Australia - 5th ODI

FINALLY, a bit of cheek from the West Indies! But despite a much improved performance in the fourth one-dayer, the Windies still went down and somehow botched a run-chase they always seemed to have in hand. As we predicted, the boutique St Kitts ground was a batting bonanza and the teams scored 563 runs between them.

The series finishes at the same venue tonight and there is little doubt that big scores will again be the norm on a great batting pitch and a ground with tiny boundaries.
Australian skipper Ricky Ponting didn't play in the last game with a wrist injury and he certainly won't be playing here as he's on a plane home to seek treatment.
Michael Clarke, stung by a fine for Australia's slow over rate in the last one-dayer, will captain the side again and David Hussey is certain to be included again after his fine 50 on debut.

With Australia 4-0 up in the series, there is a chance that Stuart Clark could come into the side to give Brett Lee a rest. However this is far from certain as Australia will be keen for a series whitewash and it also does not play again until a meaningless one-day series against Bangladesh in Darwin at the end of next month.

After a poor tipping series (yes, Mr Cricket will put his hand up here) we are looking to go out on a bang with some real value bets to try and even the punting ledger.

Only twice in his past eight one-day innings has resolute West Indian batsman Shiv Chanderpaul failed to pass 40 runs. Chanderpaul installed a bowling machine in his Orlando backyard before the series and it has paid dividends - the man from Guyana has been in the form of his life. Rarely does he fail. The last time he was out for single figures in a one-day international was back in April 2007 against South Africa. He has since played another 19 ODIs. Whenever his team is in trouble - which it generally is - Chanderpaul is at his best. And no matter what the position of the game he doesn't give up his wicket without a fight. So on a superb batting pitch, we want to back Chanderpaul in Blue Square's run market to get 41 or more runs at $2.75. We will make that a 1 unit bet.

And now for a juicy bet to really get you licking you lips. We love David Hussey as a player and his superb run-a-ball 50 the other night showcased his enormous talents. This ground will suit his devastating hitting to a tee and there is even a chance he could be propelled higher up the batting order in a match that doesn't mean much. A batsman will almost certainly win man of the match on this small ground and David Hussey is great odds at $19 in Bet365's M.O.M market. Worth a 0.25 unit bet.

Also in the same market, Luke Ronchi looks well over the odds at $26 and is worth a small bet, although we will not make this an official play. There are few more explosive batsmen in world cricket and the Australians may also be tempted to push Ronchi up from No.7 to give him more of a go in this match. When you consider blokes like Darren Powell and Fidel Edwards (MOM odds of $23) and Nathan Bracken ($13) are less than the price of Ronchi, it makes it look more attractive. For either of our MOM bets to get up, we probably need the Australians to fall into a spot of early trouble. But at $19 and $26 respectively, you are getting great odds for batsmen who can destroy any side. If Australia finds itself at 2-20, the MOM odds of both David Hussey and Ronchi will suddenly be looking very juicy indeed.

And let's hope stand-in skipper Michael Clarke elevates them up the order a bit to give us more of a chance in a match that after all means very little.
And start cheering little Shiv Chanderpaul to send us out on a winning note!

India v Sri Lanka - Asia Cup Final

YOU might not have heard much of it in this part of the world, but there is a cricket tournament being played that has captivated hundreds of millions of people. The Asia Cup, staged in strife-torn Pakistan, has been a focus for cricket lovers in the subcontinent and reaches its conclusion tonight when India takes on Sri Lanka in the final.

Sri Lanka had been the form team of the tournament, the first team to qualify for the final, until they ran into India in the Super Four stage. India needed to win to make it into the final and they did it in style - successfully chasing down Sri Lanka's 308 on a Karachi pitch which has been a haven for big-run scoring. However the form guide from that game may not stack up because Sri Lanka rested key swing bowler Chaminda Vaas and new spin sensation Ajantha Mendis.

Mendis, the exciting 23 year-old who bowls both legbreaks and offbreaks, forms a formidable spin partnership with the world's best spinner Muttiah Muralidaran. Both teams are in fine batting form and have produced a barrage of big scores in the tournament, particularly on the excellent batting pitch in Karachi. For Sri Lanka, Kumar Sangakarra (341 runs at 68) and evergreen opener Sanath Jayasuriya (253 runs at 63) have been the main batting bankers. India have four batsmen who have scored more than 250 runs in the tournament. They are Suresh Raina (356 runs at 89), Virender Sehwag (288 runs at 72), MS Dhoni (278 runs at 139) and Gautam Gambhir (253 runs at 50).

Both of these teams have been frustrating outfits over the last five years. At times they have promised a lot and showed some surges of form (such as Sri Lanka in last year's World Cup) but have been generally unable to deliver on the biggest stages. We are convinced that Sri Lanka are well over the odds in this game because they have surely been the form team of the tournament and India have been hot and cold. Sure, Sri Lanka lost to India in the Super Four stage but Sri Lanka rested two key players and had little to play for while India were desperate as they needed a win to make the final.

A key factor here is that India's batsmen won't have seen the bamboozling spin of Mendis. The bloke is incredible and has actually outbowled Muralidaran in this tournament. Mendis has 11 wickets at 12 in the Asia Cup while Murali has 10 wickets at 15. On paper, India have the bigger batting guns but we can't imagine a bowling attack that contains Murali, Vaas and Mendis conceding too many here. At $2.35 on Lasseters or about $2.40 on Betfair, the Sri Lankans look superb for a one unit bet.

Not content with that we like a few bets at more lucrative odds here. If we are right, Mendis could be the new Muralidaran and we want to back him before the rest of the world gets on board. We'll have a 0.25 unit bet on him to be man of the match at $19 with bet365. Incredible odds if you study his tournament record. Also for another 0.25 unit bet, get on Suresh Raina at $7 to be India's top runscorer with Paddypower. We are very happy with those odds given Raina is the top runscorer in the Asia Cup and has 68 runs more than the nearest Indian batsman in the tournament.

© 2008 Punting Ace.com

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