Mr Cricket: West Indies v Australia, First Test

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West Indies v Australia, First Test, Sabina Park (1am AEST)

IT seems an age since Australia last played a Test and when India departed our shores after the most controversial and incident-rich summer of cricket ever. The Indian Premier League has come - but not quite gone - and Australia's players are on the verge of playing their first Test in the West Indies since 2003. It is interesting to note that the venue for the first Test - Sabina Park in Jamaica - wasn't used in the last battle for the Frank Worrell Trophy and Australia have not played a Test in Jamaica since it lost there in 1999.

The West Indies have showed some signs of improvement but it is impossible to see them beating Australia in the three-Test series, even though they might prove nuisance value at times. Apart from being outclassed, the late arrivals from the IPL of three of the Windies best players (Ramnaresh Sarwan, Shiv Chanderpaul and Dwayne Bravo) can't have done any good for the side.

If the West Indies are to draw or win a Test, it is unlikely to be at Sabina Park because they will be without their best player and captain Chris Gayle. Gayle is the key to the West Indies because of his aggressive batting and also because the players have responded to his leadership style.

Another major problem for the West Indies is that their three frontline quicks (Fidel Edwards, Daren Powell and Jermome Taylor) all average over 35 with the ball. Edwards and Powell average over 40.

So while it is possible that a West Indian batting lineup with Chanderpaul, Bravo, Sarwan and co could hoist a decent total, it is hard to see their bowlers backing them up.
It is likely the West Indies will play one or two unheralded spin bowlers, and we will be in a better position to assess their spin options after the first Test.

Not that it is all plain sailing for Australia either. The Aussies had already lost Michael Clarke (personal reasons) before Matthew Hayden was ruled out with an ankle tendon problem on match eve. This means Brad Hodge will come into the side and bat at No.5 while Simon Katich will be shifted to opener. There are also some other question marks over Australia with Brad Haddin likely to be suffering from nerves in his debut Test, Mitchell Johnson playing his first overseas Test and Stuart MacGill returning from injuries.
Of course it is hard to see Australia losing although it doesn't take Einstein to tip that when they’re paying $1.40.

The good news though is that we are sure we have found a terrific value bet in series betting. Stuart MacGill returned in fine form in the tour match against Jamaica - taking 7 wickets - and is a lot slimmer and fitter figure than the one who struggled through the Australian summer. After having surgery on his hand, and resting his dodgy knee, he is as fit as he has been for ages. His trademark big spinning legbreak is back and got several wickets in the tour match.

It is hot as hades in the West Indies and the quicks will only be used in short bursts while MacGill will get plenty of overs from the other end. We think MacGill will bowl more overs than any of the quicks and the West Indies have never been great players of spin. The pitches in the West Indies have been turning in recent years and MacGill has a good record in the Caribbean where he has a Test average of 32.

Brett Lee is the clear favourite in most series wickets markets - around the $2.50 mark - but we think MacGill will trump him. The biggest hurdle to getting this bet up will be MacGill staying fit but we have liked what we have seen from him on this tour so far. Get on MacGill for a two unit bet to be the leading series wicket taker, at $4.50 with TAB Sportsbet, Paddypower. It may be fair enough that Lee is favourite but some bookies have got this market horribly wrong by having Stuart Clark and even, in some cases, Mitchell Johnson, at shorter odds to take more series wickets than MacGill. If Clark or Johnson get more wickets in the Caribbean than MacGill then Mr Cricket will eat his hat. Let's just hope he stays fit because we really like this bet at good odds.