Mr Cricket: Chennai v Punjab

We want to declare one thing from the start here ... we absolutely love the way Punjab play their cricket and they are the Indian Premier League franchise we now fancy to win the competition. Of course, it is easy to say that in a way, because they will be shooting for their sixth successive win when they take on Chennai tonight. But - even if they didn't have such an imposing recent record - we still reckon they are the team that is most balanced, with some of the best big guns and they play their cricket in an exhilarating way. If Punjab lose, they go down swinging.

It's impossible not to be besotted by their batting top-order - swashbuckling Australians Shaun Marsh and James Hopes at the top followed by cunning West Indian Ramnaresh Sarwan, huge-hitting Indian Yuvraj Singh, canny Sri Lankan Mahela Jayawardene and lusty Indian allrounder Irfan Pathan. You get the feeling that even if Punjab's batting falls into trouble with the loss of a few quick wickets at some stage there is still enough batting bluebloods to get them a big score. They don't have the IPL's most threatening bowling attack but Indian quick Sreesanth, energetic medium pacer VRV Singh, legspinning allrounder Piyush Chawla and Hopes seem to have admirably covered the hole left by the departure of Brett Lee last week.

On the other side of the equation, you never seem to know what you are going to get from Chennai. They struggled desperately when they lost their big guns Matthew Hayden, Jacob Oram and Mike Hussey, losing three games in a row, but they gained enormous confidence when they got back on the winners list by chasing down 188 and hitting the winning run on the final delivery against Delhi the other night. They changed their batting order (moving MS Dhoni up to No.3) but the most positive sign for Chennai was that opener Stephen Fleming finally hit his straps. Fleming, a latecomer to the IPL, had been terrible at the top of the order but his 44 against Glenn McGrath and Mohammad Asif was a real good sign.

As we said off the top we are fans of Punjab but we think Chennai is a terrific chance here now they have got their mojo back. They have confidence back and should be a dangerous proposition playing on their home turf. We know a lot relies on Fleming and Dhoni with Chennai's batting but the side was good enough to chase down a big total against Delhi - one of the competition's real heavyweights - and we like that formline. They also have Muttiah Muralidaran who keeps things tight and is well overdue for a big wicket haul. As we have seen in the IPL, it is very tough to keep winning in 20-over cricket and Punjab have won five on the trot. Chennai, in front of their home crowd, confidence regained and keen to reignite their winning ways, will be the most desperate side here.

We are tipping a big game from Dhoni, in his new position up the order, and also Muralidaran who will not allow Punjab to score at their customary high rate. As much as it pains us to say it, because we are unabashed fans of the Punjab side, we think Chennai could be a great value bet here. Don't forget it is Twenty20 cricket so the value normally lies with the roughie and there's plenty of reasons to think resurgent Chennai can spring an upset at decent odds here. We like them for a 1 unit bet at $2.25 with Sportsbet or $2.23 with Centrebet. We would have launched into a bigger bet on Chennai but we do have a real soft spot for Punjab - who regardless of the result of tonight's game look well poised to have a crack at taking out the tournament. But Punjab can't win every night and Chennai are tasty odds for a side that has plenty of talent and a few things going for it in this game.