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IPL
- Bangalore Royal Challengers v Deccan Chargers (Hyderabad)
WHAT are these teams doing in the Indian Premier League?
Not much it seems, with both anchored to the bottom to
the table with just one win from five starts. While Bangalore
(full of Test players unsuited to Twenty20) were tipped
by many to struggle from day one, Hyderabad have been the
huge disappointment of the IPL. The big-name team was as
short as $3.75 to take the IPL title in pre-tournament
markets but they have now blown out the gate and you can
get big odds. How can a team that at various stages has
included Adam Gilchrist, Andrew Symonds, Herschelle Gibbs,
Shahid Afridi, VVS Laxman and Rohit Sharma fail to fire?
Simple - they have not played as a team. Their task is
not any easier now Andrew Symonds has departed.
Bangalore
has been the real dour struggler of the IPL. Their struggles
can be summed up in two words. Rahul and Dravid! Their
captain, who is totally unsuited to 20-over cricket, has
batted just about everywhere in the order without firing
a single bullet. The owner of the Bangalore franchise,
liquor baron Vijay Mallya, is now probably more interested
in using the franchise to cross-promote his grog.
If you
assess this game purely on paper, Hyderabad should absolutely
smash Bangalore. The Hyderabad top-order has Gilchrist,
Laxman, Sharma, Gibbs and Afridi while Bangalore have
Praveen Kumar, Wasim Jaffer, Misbah ul haq, Jacques Kallis
(who simply doesn't fire in 20-over cricket) and the
under-pressure Dravid. It's game over.. or is it? On the
face of it the shortish quote for Hyderabad (around
the $1.55 - $1.65 mark) looks about right. But we will
not be touching Hyderabad with a ten-foot pole until we
see something better from them, and certainly not at a
short quote. We don't want to go near Bangalore either.
This is a game to stay out of match betting because its
busted team against busted team and we want to see something
better from both of these mobs before we go putting our
hard earned on. So let's flick the match betting and look
at a few exotic bets we don't mind.
BOUCHER FOR BANGALORE
Bangalore has the most tipsy top-order in the tournament
and in this 20-over format we simply don't rate Wasim Jaffer
(not good enough), Jacques Kallis (too slow for this form)
and Rahul Dravid (where do we start?!). Mark Boucher, the
South African wicketkeeper, comes in at No.6 and could
even come in higher if the Bangalore run-rate needs pushing.
Which it probably will!
We love Boucher in this form of
cricket because he is a big hitter but also has a good
head on his shoulders. He has scored 85 runs in the tournament
and that doesn't sound much. But, despite not getting much time
in the middle, his 85 runs mean he is Bangalore's
third highest runscorer. And the top scorer Ross Taylor
(149) has left. That leaves only Kallis (112 runs)
ahead of Boucher. Bangalore do have a problem with their
overseas quote and one international player will have to
miss this game but it won't be Boucher because he is the
wicketkeeper. We love the quote of $8.50 for Boucher
to be Bangalore's top scorer against Hyderabad with Paddypower,
have 0.25 units. He is a good chance at No.6 and let's
hope Bangalore show some initiative and push him up the
order.
GET ON SHARMA
We have been ulta-impressed by 21-year-old Indian batsmen
Rohit Sharma since we saw him in Australia last summer.
Sharma is so good he is already being compared to a young
Sachin Tendulkar. While many bigger batting guns have
misfired in the IPL, Sharma is the tournament's fifth
top runscorer
with 178 runs at an average of 59 and a strike rate of
160. Sharma will probably come in at No.4 for Hyderabad
and we think he is going much better than Bangalore No.4
Jacques Kallis.
We don't like Kallis in this format at
all - there is a reason he was dropped from South Africa's
T20 side. Kallis's 112 IPL runs are at an average of
22 and a strike rate of 117. We like Sharma
at $1.75 to score
more runs than Kallis in Lasseters' market and we'll
have 1 unit. Sharma may well have to face better bowlers
than
Kallis will here, but it shouldn't matter. Sharma is
all class and a player on the up while Kallis is on
struggle street.
Kings Punjab XI (Mohali) v Kolkata Knight Riders
THIS is an intriguing clash between two teams whose
recent form could not be any more different. Punjab has
strung together three successive wins while Kolkata (who
started the tournament in impressive fashion) have hit
the skids with three successive losses (one to lowly Mumbai).
Kolkata have been badly wounded by the departures of batting
guns Brendon McCullum and Ricky Ponting.
The great thing
about this game is it pits several rising Australian players
against each other. Shaun Marsh and James Hopes (fitness
permitting) will turn out for Punjab while David Hussey
and Brad Hodge are on the Kolkata side. Shaun Marsh is
the son of former Australian opening batsman Geoff Marsh
and you could not have been more impressed by his blazing
opening to the IPL when he flayed an unbeaten 84 the other
night. Australian selectors have showed what they think
of Marsh by including him in the one-day squad for the
West Indies tour. If Hopes is fit to play, it would be
terrific to see two Australians potentially opening the
batting for Punjab. Kolkata weapon Hodge, another late
IPL starter, could not have had more contrasting fortunes
than Marsh when he was unluckily run out in his first IPL
hit-out.
Punjab look to have a beautifully balanced side
with Marsh, Hopes (possibly), Kumar Sangakkara, Yuvraj
Singh and Mahela Jayawardene topping the batting. They
will still miss Brett Lee with the ball but they do have
international paceman Sreesanth and Gagandeep Singh who
went OK the other night. Even if Punjab's bowling attack
concedes plenty, their batting looks to have the firepower
to chase any target down.
By contrast, too much relies
on Hussey and Hodge for Kolkata. Sourav Ganguly has struggled
for most of the tournament and he might be rattled from
his altercation with Shane Warne. Kolkata batsmen Salman
Butt and Debabrata Das have so far looked out of their
depth and their batting lineup doesn't look half as good
as the Punjab side. We have to admit that Kolkata's bowling
has been impressive at times with unknown paceman Ashok
Dinda playing well and Umar Gul and Ishant Sharma providing sharp
pace. But, as we have always said with 20-over cricket,
a good batting side will beat a good bowling side nine
times out of ten.
We won't be going too hard at this
match because we know Hussey and Hodge have class, and
can pull a rabbit out of a hat, while Kolkata's bowlers
can acquit themselves well. But we just keep turning back
to the strong Punajb batting side and it's hard to envisiage
them not geting a score in the 190-200 range. That
will be simply too big a mountain to climb for
Kolkata so we want to be on Punjab here. We thought they
would be a fair bit shorter than the $1.81 being offered
by RacingOdds. It is certainly worth a 1 unit play.
© 2008 Punting Ace.com
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