IPL - Chennai v Kolkata

One thing is for sure after watching the IPL so far. As we suggested would happen in our initial preview of the competition, the roughies are often getting the goods. 20-over cricket compresses the talent gap between teams and means that the superior side on paper has a greater chance of being beaten by an inferior side. Also with teams still trying to mesh - getting to know each other through cultural barriers - the roughies are often over the odds. Of the 10 games so far, five roughies have saluted including a couple at tasty odds at the $2.50 mark or over. If you simply had the same stake on every roughie so far, you'd be making a nice profit. Keep that in mind.

The tournament is starting to get to the stage where we really have to keep an eye on the ins and outs of every team as Australian, New Zealand and West Indian players are soon to leave the IPL for international committments. It means that games over the next few days - before star players leave - take on even more importance. Tonight's battle between Chennai and Kolkata promises to be a ripper because both teams are unbeaten and have showed terrific form. Thankfully, this game is in Chennai rather than the nightmare of an Eden Gardens pitch in Kolkata.

Both teams look very evenly matched in batting (Kolkata - Ricky Ponting, Sourav Ganguly, Brendon McCullum and David Hussey) - (Chennai - Matthew Hayden, Mike Hussey, MS Dhoni, Jacob Oram). We have always said 20-over cricket is a game for batsmen but these teams virtually cancel each other out in that department. However they are poles apart in the bowling department and Kolkata has an emormous edge here. Kolkata's bowling strike force - including Indian pace stringbean Ishant Sharma and canny spinner Murali Kartik - figure in the top three spots for the best overall economy-rate, strike-rates and averages in the IPL. 

By contrast Chennai have not had enough help for Muttiah Muralidaran. Chennai have conceded 207 and 202 in their games and Jacob Oram has been a real worry with the new ball - conceding 0-90 at an ecomomy rate of more than 11. Other bowlers like Palani Amarnath have been ineffectual also. You can really see Kolkata's batting stars playing out Murali and launching a batting blitz on the rest of Chennai's attack. 20-over cricket is normally decided by batsmen but we think the bowlers will have the last say and we like Kolkata to continue their unbeaten run - worth a 1 unit bet at $2 with Lasseters. Also we think Ricky Ponting is overdue for runs and would be worth a small 0.25 unit bet at $4.50 with paddypower in Kolkata's high-bat market. Ponting will be desperate for runs as he won't want to leave the IPL without a big score. We are confident of a win here.

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