Mr Cricket: India v Sth Africa

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India v Sth Africa - 3rd Test

INDIA is a place where you always have to expect the unexpected.
Sometimes, something so crazy happens that it defies history and all traditional betting patterns and you just have to sit back and take it in. It happened in 2004 when Australia visited Nagpur for the third Test of the series. The local curator had absolutely no time for the Indian Board of Control or India's then skipper Sourav Ganguly. The curator vindictively prepared a shameless greentop pitch. Ganguly was so furious that he refused to play, withdrawing on match morning with a supposed hip injury. Harbhajan Singh took one look at the pitch and decided he wasn't playing either. Australia giggled all the way to the bank and produced a monster 342-run win.

There were bizarre scenes again last week when India was flogged by South Africa in the second Test on a Ahmedabad pitch which didn't suit the home side. The locals were bowled out for just 76 in the first innings and in only 20 overs - in less time than it takes to complete a game of AFL football.

In the middle of the peculiar scenes, Graeme Smith got more runs than Indian opener Wasim Jaffer so we managed to get our banker bet up. Our bet on Ganguly was a loss but he did top score int he 2nd innings so we weren't far off the mark there.

All attention turns to the third Test in Kanpur, starting Friday, where South Africa is aiming to complete just its second win of all-time in India.

'GET IT INDIA!'

Kanpur is one of India's most heavily polluted cities and the local pitch is renowned for not suiting bounce and pace. We don't like South Africa's chances here because it won't suit their fire and brimstone pace strategy and conditions are likely to play straight into India's hands. Impressive Proteas quicks Dale Steyn and Makhaya Ntini shouldn't be nearly as much of a factor here.

With the series on the line, Kanpur ground officials will come under heavy pressure to produce a raging turner to suit Harbhajan Singh and Anil Kumble who is once again in doubt with a groin injury.
Sachin Tendulkar is out again but there is uncertainty surrounding some of India's lineup with ultra-impressive young quick Ishant Sharma included in the squad and facing a fitness test to play.
India will not field their No.1 side but they showed enough in Australia last summer to suggest they have the stomach for a fight and will not lay down as past Indian teams might have.

We think the $2.85 you can get on India with Sportsbet is well over the odds for a side which will be chastened and desperate to win to level the series. We'll make this a 1 unit play. Don't forget it was only a few months ago that India was probably unlucky not to take down Ricky Ponting's world champions in Australia. The form line shows India are a class act and we think the second Test result was a glitch, brought on by an unfamilar pitch and one terrible batting display.

OPENING ASSAULT

Forget Virender Sehwag's amazing triple century in the first Test for a second. Wipe it from your mind because you know the explosive Sehwag is hit and miss - you never know what you are going to get.
South Africa's openers Graeme Smith and Neil McKenzie are a much more accomplished opening pair than their Indian opposite numbers, Sehwag and the outclassed Wasim Jaffer. Smith has 142 runs at 47 for the series so far while McKenzie, a confidence player who is in arguably of the form of his life, has 291 runs at 145.

We would much prefer to be on the in-form Smith/McKenzie duo in highest opening partnership betting, listed at $1.9 with ColTidy or Sportsbet. Have 2 units here. Take on Sehwag and Jaffer like there is no tomorrow because Sehwag is too unpredictable and Jaffer not good enough.

HARBY BET

IF you think India will finish the series on a winning note, like we do, then it will almost certainly be Harbhajan Singh who spins them to victory. The Turbantor must be worth a small wager of 0.5 units in man of the match betting at $8 with bet365. Harbhajan is already the joint series leading wicket-taker with 12 and will play a massive role if India get the chocolates in Kanpur.