England v India – 7th ODI

It would be nice to have an Even money shot at 4/1 to sign off with today but, unfortunately, it rarely works like that. Those sort of bets come along few and far between so we all have to concentrate on continually backing small value bets and trust that statistics will do the rest for us. I’ve really enjoyed doing these write-ups for Punting Ace and I hope that some of you will have got some benefit from them. If I were to leave you with any advice it would be to always maintain your discipline when betting and not let bad runs, or good runs for that matter, cloud your judgement and get in the way of your staking plan. Consistency and discipline are the key to continually winning money, for me, along with a clearly thought out staking plan and, of course, some ability to spot value when you see it. If you have all these tools at your disposal, and you use them, then you will win money year on year – as long as the bookies don’t shut you down!

The two teams, weary and injury-laden, head to Lord’s today for the finale of this 7 match series and it’s quite hard to pick a winner. Flintoff is set to return to the team, so long as he passes a fitness test, which strengthens England’s bowling unit somewhat. Spare a thought for Dimitri Mascarenhas who he will replace, getting dropped after smashing 36 off 15 balls, including 5 sixes on the trot to finish the match, and more than respectable bowling figures of 10 overs, 2 for 55, is a little harsh but England just love Flintoff and are a different side without him. ‘Momentum’ is a word often used in sport and, if it does exist, then there’s no doubting it’s with India after winning the last two matches. I don’t know about momentum but I’m sure their confidence will be high and they will give themselves a chance of chasing any English total. I just don’t think I can pick a favourite tonight so I suggest a wager in the Indians to make it three from three and take the series at the $2.18-2.20 at betfair. It will more than likely be the last time that Dravid, Ganguly and Tendulkar play at Lord’s so lets hope they make it a good farewell both for them and me tonight and provide us with a win.
India to beat England, 1.5 pts at $2.18: Betfair.

England will be pleased to see Flintoff return tonight, they looked a little helpless to repel the Indian onslaught the other day, but India won’t be able to take the sort of liberties with Flintoff that they were with Anderson, Broad and co. He is a man for the big occasion and though it’s well documented that his batting is going through a rut, his bowling is aggressive, bouncy, economical and could easily do serious damage to the Indian batting line-up, especially if he gets some bounce in the pitch. The 16/1 for Fred to be man of the match at BlueSq is a small bet, I think he should be about 12 or 14s max, as he could win it just for his bowling performance alone. Don’t forget that he has been one of England’s most destructive batsmen in the past and has the biggest, safest pair of hands in the team. If he gets time and finds a bit of form with his woodworm then the 16s could look ridiculous all of a sudden.
Andrew Flintoff to be man of the match, ½ pt at $17.00: BlueSq.

Plays of the day
India to beat England, 1.5 pts at $2.18: Betfair.
Andrew Flintoff to be man of the match, ½ pt at $17.00: BlueSq.