England v India – 1st Test

This opening fixture of the series is a very difficult one to price up – there are just so many unusual variables to chuck into the pot. To start with there is a pretty bad weather report, in particular pointing to rain early on in the Test Match. Even the weather isn’t all that clear though – it seems that it could go either way…losing ½ a day or even less to maybe 2 full days or more. Obviously depending on which scenario happens the draw is very strong. But therein lies the conundrum – I am not a weatherman and I know not how much play we are going to lose.

To make matters even less clear we have two very strong batting attacks matching up against two very inexperienced bowling attacks, on a pretty flat Lords deck. It looks like England are set to lose Matthew Hoggard to a back spasm so their attack will be Sidebottom, Anderson, Broad and Panesar: if they don’t find something in the track, or in the air, then messrs Dravid, Tendulkar, Ganguly et al could all make hay if and when the sun shines. The Indians likely attack of Sreesanth, Zaheer, Kumble and one of Powar or RP Singh wouldn’t exactly frighten a county line-up, let alone a strong Test team. You can see why the draw is so short.

My inclination is that the draw has gone a little too far at the mid $1.50s so if you fancy an interest then go ahead and lay it. There are just too many imponderables to ponder, however, to be able to tip it as definite value so I’ll leave it off my selections for today. If you wanted an even smaller risk interest then you could go worse that backing England at $5.10 at betfair. It’s no secret that India aren’t exactly the best travellers and, as with most tours these days, they haven’t had that long to acclimatise. The English attack isn’t that experienced but in helpful conditions they could still easily do a job on that strong Indian line-up.

Mahendra Singh Dhoni has been getting many of the headlines in England at the moment but for all the wrong reasons. Word is that his ‘keeping hasn’t been up to scratch and the possibility of Dinesh Karthik opening the batting and ‘keeping was mooted. I don’t think that scenario is all that likely, especially in this 1st Test, and Dhoni should take his place at number 7 in the Indian team. Ladbrokes have matched him up against Matt Prior, the English gloveman in a match runs matchbet and have gone 6/5 the flaxen haired Indian pin-up. I don’t really see how they have made Prior that strong a favourite, there’s nothing not to like about him, but Dhoni too is a more than capable batsman. The spread companies have them both in for about the same amount of runs (most have Dhoni in for slightly more) and I agree that this should be a choice market. I’d maybe have Prior slight favourite due to Dhoni’s propensity for lower scores punctuated by the odd big’un, but I’d have MSD no bigger than $2.05. Have 2 points on Dhoni to beat Prior and hope he gets in, even if you haven’t got money riding on him he can be amazing entertainment when he gets in…like Adam Gilchrist on speed.
Dhoni to score more match runs than Prior, 2pts at $2.20: Ladbrokes.

The Indians seem to think a lot of Dinesh Karthik, and why not. Not only does it look like he can fill that opening slot they have been desperate to cement down ever since Sunny Gavaskar retired, but he is an excellent gloveman as well. On top of this he even bowled in the Indians recent warm up against the England Lions! The lengths some people will go to to get a game of cricket. Some of the layers seem to have viewed Karthik as a wicketkeeper who can bat a bit, in pricing him up at 8 or 9/1 to top score for India but I can tell you that he is better than that. He deserves his place in the team as a batsman alone, keeping the classy Gautum Ghambir out of the side, and I’d chalk him up at about 7/1 or 15/2. Have a point to win on this talented all rounder and hope he doesn’t have to open, ‘keep and bowl his 25 overs an innings! If you can’t get on at the three bookies mentioned below then have half a point on the 8/1 at corals, or elsewhere if you can find it, if it’s still available.
Dinesh Karthik top Indian runscorer (1st Test), 1pt at $10.00: BetDirect, BetandGame, Betterbet.

Plays of the Day
Dhoni to score more match runs than Prior, 2pts at $2.20: Ladbrokes.
Dinesh Karthik top Indian runscorer (1st Test), 1pt at $10.00: BetDirect, BetandGame, Betterbet.

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