England v West Indies – 4th Test

As you may imagine when looking at a draw price of $1.50 before a ball has even been bowled, the weather forecast for this encounter in the North of England is miserable. If you could guarantee even 3 and a half days play then the $1.50 (at time of writing) on Betfair would be a cracking lay. In these conditions the West Indians have proven more than capable of falling in a heap, but even they may struggle to get a result out of this game if the weather is as bad as the odds suggest. I do think it is a little low at $1.50, even now, so if you want to oppose the draw then feel free to lay a touch…or back England at slightly better odds, but I would suggest we stick with our long term bet for the time being and don’t get ourselves in any deeper, due to the huge question marks being offered up by the forecast.

Unfortunately, because of the rain, all the Aussie books have declined to even offer a match price at this stage, let alone any specials so there’s not much to get our teeth into in this hemisphere. The bookies always run a little scared when something out of the ordinary happens and this is a prime example. New Zealand have shown the Aussie books how it’s done, however, in the form of the NZ TAB and have provided us with a bet as well. Alistair Cook is in prime form at the moment and it seems he is finding it hard not to score runs. The NZ TAB have matched him up with the West Indies stand-in skipper Darren Ganga. He will have been proud of the way his charges fought back earlier in the week but he will still be feeling the pressure. With 99 runs in the series so far at less than 20 his confidence will be at an understandable low. The Kiwi TAB have Cook as a $1.77 shot against Ganga but I believe it should be $1.70 or less. Matthew Hoggard will be back to bolster the new ball attack and I predict more pain, and a lack of runs, for the skipper. Have 2 points on Cook at the $1.77.
Alistair Cook to beat Darren Ganga, Runs Match Bet, 2 pts at $1.77: NZ TAB.

Overcast conditions in England normally means one thing – swing, and England have one of the best swing bowlers in the world returning, in Hoggard, and one who has proven his mettle in these conditions already in the series in Ryan Sidebottom. Even Steve Harmison is looking like he can bowl a bit again and normally performs when surrounded by his beloved home comforts. This leads me to suggest backing the West Indies to score less than 150 in their first innings at 15/2 ($8.50) at Paddy Power. In Leeds, where rainy and overcast conditions prevailed throughout, the WIndies never looked like they wanted to be out there and were skittled for less than 150 in both innings. Should they bat in similar conditions I could easily see this happen again as they just do not look comfortable against the swinging ball. It’s hard to say exactly where this should be, again due to the irregularities of the weather forecasts, but I would say it should be around 13/2 ($7.50) and so would suggest half a point.
West Indies 1st Innings Runs less than 150, ½ pt at $8.50: Paddy Power.

Aside from Shivnarine Chanderpaul, Dwayne Bravo has been about the only West Indian who has stood up and been counted in the series so far. He’s shown fight, spirit and no little ability as well in scoring 204 runs at 40, with two fifties, in the three Test matches so far. He batted six in the last Test and looked the part to me. He may well be shifted down the order if Sammy misses out due to injury and Samuels comes in, but I still think the 9/1 about him at our Irish friends Paddy Power is a touch big. He should be about 15/2 ($8.50), or a touch shorter if batting at six again, so have half a point on him to show the others how it’s done again.
Dwayne Bravo top West Indian Runscorer, ½ pt at $10.00, Paddy Power.

Plays of the Day

Alistair Cook to beat Darren Ganga, Runs Match Bet, 2 pts at $1.77: NZ TAB.
West Indies 1st Innings Runs less than 150, ½ pt at $8.50: Paddy Power.
Dwayne Bravo top West Indian Runscorer, ½ pt at $10.00, Paddy Power.