England v West Indies – 3rd Test

The weather did it’s best to have the last say in the 2nd Test but ultimately the West Indies were just too bad. To be fair they had a bit of bad luck with the toss and losing their skipper for the whole match, but they were soundly beaten and I expect the same thing to happen at Old Trafford. The weather forecast is much better than it was a few days ago though, unfortunately, the punters have got their before us and the price on England has taken a nosedive. The $1.60 about England was good, but I think it’s not quite a back at around $1.50 – especially when we are on them to win the next two matches at about that price anyway. Leave the match prices alone for this match.

Steve Harmison has it all to prove, he needs wickets, his place in the team is in threat, he hasn’t performed in the series to date…these are all things that were said about the lacklustre quick in the build up to last years Old Trafford Test Match against Pakistan. Harmison was Man of the Match in that game, bowling like the wind and returning match figures of 11 for 76. I think the 14’s about him repeating that performance is a decent bet and would say he should be as short as 8 or 9/1. The simple reason for this is the pitch – it has historically been fast, hard and bouncy and reports coming out of Manchester are that it is likely to be so again. Harmison is a totally different bowler on these types of surfaces and, though it takes a brave man to back him to do well after his performances in the previous two Tests, he will love bowling on this surface and it should bring the best out in him.
We’ll have half a point on him to be honoured as the best performer in this match but there is also value elsewhere concerning GBH. William Hills have chalked him at 9/2 ($5.50) to take the most wickets in the match and this is probably a slightly better bet. I think 7/2 is a more realistic price here. The West Indian bowlers are not much of a threat to this market, they would only be in for about 12 wickets between them, and the pitch is unlikely to really suit Plunkett or Sidebottom if the ball doesn’t swing. Panesar is a danger and will relish the extra bounce but the biggest threat to the seemingly heartless West Indian is without doubt Harmison. Take a point for him to bag the most match wickets.
Steve Harmison to be Man of the Match, ½ pt at $15.00 – Bluesquare; Bet365, Boylesports.
Steve Harmison most Match Wickets, 1 pt at $5.50 – William Hills.

Kevin Pietersen may have had more stupid haircuts than David Beckham but he is on fire at the moment and the West Indies pop-gun attack just doesn’t look like getting him out at the moment. Every batsman is vulnerable early on, and Pietersen is no different, but if he hangs around for 6 or 7 overs then there is seemingly only one person on the pitch who can get him out – Kevin Pietersen. There are some players who just make the game look incredibly easy and KP is one of those, he can be a joy to watch. He’s even more of a joy to watch when you have money on him and he’s creaming it to all parts and hopefully that will be the case here. The 3/1 for him to score a century in the first innings at Paddy Power is generous. He has hit 6 first innings centuries in 25 attempts and none of the bowling attacks were as weak as this one. I would this almost as short as 2/1 so we’ll have 1 ½ points no him to rack up another Test century at the first attempt here.
He got a double century in his last go and, though it is probably unlikely, we’ll have a small go on him to do the same again here. Skybet have gone 14/1 that he repeats the feat and, though it doesn’t happen very often, West Indies are that bad that I do think it is just a smidge of value. We’ll have ¼ of a point only and get ready to go nuts if he does it. (KP, go nuts – get it?).
Kevin Pietersen 1st innings century, 1 pt at $4.00 – Paddy Power.
Kevin Pietersen to score a double century, ¼ pt at $15.00 – Skybet.

Plays of the day
Steve Harmison to be Man of the Match, ½ pt at $15.00 – Bluesquare; Bet365, Boylesports.
Steve Harmison most Match Wickets, 1 pt at $5.50 – William Hills.
Kevin Pietersen 1st innings century, 1 pt at $4.00 – Paddy Power.
Kevin Pietersen to score a double century, ¼ pt at $15.00 – Skybet.