England v West Indies
– 2nd Test

The weather came along and put the last match out of its misery, which was probably a good thing for viewers who could go and do something else instead of subjecting themselves to a day watching the Windies bat out a draw. There is rain forecast for the coming match at Headingley as well, hence the draw price being so short, but it isn’t expected to play as much of a part in the match. Headingley has proved to be a result wicket historically. Despite some large first innings scores, with 18 results in the last 20 matches there. Obviously being in Leeds any chance of a result is largely dependant on the weather, and in this case on two fairly toothless bowling attacks. We shouldn’t let that put us off a lay of the draw though – it certainly is true that Headingley can be flat, but on the flip side when it is overcast it can also be a snakepit – even Shane Watson could take Test Wickets there under grey skies. I must admit I’m not a fan particularly of betting on the weather but it’s an unavoidable part of the game and must be embraced. It’s always hard to see exactly where the price should be in these circumstances but my inclination would be to chalk it up at around 6/4 ($2.50). We’ll keep stakes slightly smaller than usual and lay 3 points on betfair at the 2.08 – accept 2.16 but don’t go any higher.
Lay the Draw, 3 pts at $2.08 – Betfair.

Fast bowlers do tend to be enigmatic but there’s none more frustrating than Steve Harmison. On his day he can be the most destructive bowler on the planet, and on another day he can bowl a ball so wide that 2nd slip needs a pair of gloves. With Matthew Hoggard out of the England line up though I think it’s a prudent time to give GBH one more chance to live up to his nickname - Grievous Bodily Harmison. In a four pronged attack that includes the Plunkett, Panesar and Sidebottom Harmison can’t be any bigger than 5/2 to be England’s top first innings wicket taker. If he finds any of his early season form at all then he is in pole position. Panesar shouldn’t really get much of a look in under grey Leeds skies and Harmison must be considered the main threat to the Windies line up. There are questions of Harmy’s attitude and commitment being asked and it really is time for him to answer them, one way or another, or risk being dropped. We’ll have 1 ½ points on him and hope that Harmison turns up with the right attitude this time.
Steve Harmison most England 1st Innings Wickets, 1 ½ pts at $4.00 – Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Expekt.

We backed Fidel Edwards in the last match at 4/1 and we shall plough in again at an even juicier 5/1 for this match. The West Indies bowling line up really didn’t impress at all in the previous outing and there has to be a case made for Fiddy to play. Edwards great attributes are pace and the ability to swing the ball – which could be a lethal combination at Leeds, where it can swing round corners. Add this to a whippy action that is sometimes hard to pick up and it makes the 5/1 about him at Paddy Power look pretty stupid. I don’t expect Windies to change their batting line up so if Edwards were to play he would almost certainly come in for one of the other quicks – the $4.25 I quoted in the last write up would be about right so we’ll have 2.5 points to win.
Fidel Edwards most West Indies 1st Innings Wickets, 2 pts at $6.00: Paddy Power.

Plays of the day
Lay the Draw, 3 pts at $2.08 – Betfair.
Steve Harmison most England 1st Innings Wickets, 1 ½ pts at $4.00 – Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Expekt.
Fidel Edwards most West Indies 1st Innings Wickets, 2.5 pts at $6.00: Paddy Power.