Australia v Sri Lanka – World Cup Final

After approximately 27 years of warm ups, group games, prelim games, not so super 8’s and a couple of semi finals finally we have reached the final. It could well be a cracker but it could also be a cakewalk for the Aussies. They have a habit of turning it on for the big games and I would imagine it will be a happy farewell for Pigeon tonight. I can’t pick a hole in the match prices but there are a few excellent specials out there to have a bet on. At first glance it seems like the Aussie layers have gone to town, but then you realise that it’s just the same old markets (probably priced up by the compilers at Centrebet and TAB) churned out by different companies – they should be asking for commission in my opinion!

The first bet is for Australia to score the most runs in the first 10 overs at $1.75 – Bracken and McGrath are as tight as they come and Upul Tharanga may well get bogged down in the biggest match of his career. If they lose an early wicket then Sanga and the skipper will try and rebuild, the only real danger man is Jayasuriya going mental but even he might want to look at a few so he can enjoy his swansong. For the Aussies Gilly will come out and play his natural game and Hayden and Ponting are just on fire at the moment. I would say this should be more like $1.65 and recommend 3 units.
Australia highest 1st 10 overs, 3 pts at $1.75: IAS, Canbet, Sportingbet.

Ladbrokes have given us a couple of decent ones to get our teeth into as well. Firstly – a player perf match bet between the two ‘keepers Gilchrist and Sangakkara. There isn’t much to choose between them though I do have Gilly a couple of points ahead of Sangakkara – which would mean I’d have Sanga as an 11/10 poke. Laddies have put out a whopping 6/4 ($2.50) on the Sri Lankan so we simply have to back him – sorry folks!
I’d recommend 5 points here and hope that Gilly doesn’t get too many with the bat.
Sangakkara to beat Gilchrist player perf match bet, 5 pts at $2.50: Ladbrokes.

Matthew Hayden has simply been on fire throughout the tournament and there is no reason to expect this not to continue. He’s already hit three tons in the World Cup so far, 5 in his last 20, and will be keen to cap it all off with a match winning hundred. On top of that the pitch should be a cracker – 300+ totals have been chased twice there in the last 5 matches. The 10/1 for him to score a ton is nice, I’d be 6’s, and I’m recommending 1 ½ points here.
Matthew Hayden to score a ton, 1 ½ pts at $11.00: Ladbrokes.

Muttiah Muralitharan is the big danger to the Aussies with the ball, and both teams know it. Because of this I expect the Aussies to treat him with respect and be happy to play out his ten for 35 runs or so and lose as few wickets as possible to him. His player performance mark at Expekt is simply too high at the 45.5 mark – I’d have it about ten points lower. At 45.5 I’d be about $1.67-$1.72 so would suggest 4 points under the 45.5 at $1.90.
Muralitharan player performance, 4 pts under 45.5 at $1.90: Expekt.

Plays of the day

Australia highest 1st 10 overs, 3 pts at $1.75: IAS, Canbet, Sportingbet.
Sangakkara to beat Gilchrist player perf match bet, 5 pts at $2.50: Ladbrokes.
Matthew Hayden to score a ton, 1 ½ pts at $11.00: Ladbrokes.
Muralitharan player performance, 4 pts under 45.5 at $1.90: Expekt.