Australia v South Africa – 2nd Semi-Final

Australia have played the best all round cricket of the tournament so far and I think they deserve to win the whole thing. I definitely think they are rightfully strong favourites for tonight’s match but I think the current prices have gone a bit far. South Africa are still a good side and, though still haunted by the ‘choker’ tag, they are very competitive. South Africa have beaten Australia four times in the last ten games between the two sides and I don’t think it’s beyond them to do it again. I think the price should be more like $1.45-$1.50 so would suggest a lay of the Aussies at the $1.42 on betfair for three points.
Lay Australia, 3 pts at $1.42: Betfair. 

Firms sometimes get a little carried away with the relative strength of the batsmen in games such as this. But this is a big semi final and the bowlers on show aren’t too shabby either. One thing with both these teams is that they will field like tigers and give 100% throughout the match so individual hundreds won’t just be handed to you on a plate. Ladbrokes have put out a market on how many tons there will be in the match and gone 11/10 ($2.10) on there not being any. I would say this should be a shade of odds on, even with Matt the bat and Ricky Ponting seemingly unable to stop scoring runs at the moment. Pressure can do funny things to batsmen - if this match were played a hundred times I think the ton count would draw a blank at least half the time. I’d suggest two points at the 11/10.
No ton in match, 2 pts at $2.10: Ladbrokes.

Andrew Symonds just about seems to be back to full fitness now and will definitely be raring to go. He is the sort of player who can rack up big points, in player performance terms, so I think he is a touch over-priced in Ladbrokes “Who will score the most points” market. He’s obviously up against some class performers, I would have their points in for: Symonds 48, Kallis 55, Gilchrist 53, Hall 38, Smith 48 and Watson 40. On that basis I would price him up at no bigger than 9/2 ($5.50) in this market so would suggest ½ a point to win.
Andrew Symonds to score most points, ½ pt at $5.50: Ladbrokes.

Plays of the day

Lay Australia, 3 pts at $1.42: Betfair. 
No ton in match, 2 pts at $2.10: Ladbrokes.
Andrew Symonds to score most points, ½ pt at $5.50: Ladbrokes.