Sri Lanka v New Zealand – 1st Semi-Final

I think everyone would have to agree that the best four teams in the tournament have made it to the semi final stage and we’re set for two potentially cracking matches here. The layers have gone to town with the number of markets they have released, though, unfortunately most of them are blatantly copying from each other here in Australia. I think the Kiwis are likely to find Sri Lanka too strong for them tonight – they just have every department covered whereas the Black Caps still depend on a few key individuals. The $1.75 about them is a little marginal and I think a small play on the handicap market, backing Sri Lanka at the minus is the way forward. Betworks have Sri Lanka -12.5 at $1.90 or you can back them -10.5 at a similar price, before commission at betfair. It’s up to your preference which way you go but personally I prefer to give up an extra two runs for the slightly bigger price in this instance.
Sri Lanka -12.5 Match Handicap, 2 pts at $1.90: Betworks.

There is a possibility that Marvan Attapatu will come in to the side tonight in place of Upul Tharanga, and would go straight in as opener. The thinking is that Marvelous Marvan’s experience would be very useful in such a big game, especially considering Tharanga’s relative failure in the tournament to date - he’s scored just 219 runs at 24. They will probably stick with Tharanga, but if they don’t then the 9/1 about Marvan at sportsbet is a whopper. I cannot see him coming into the side for anyone else, barring injury, so he either opens or you get your money back. I’d make him 5/1 so even if the 9s goes then he is 8s practically everywhere so have a point there instead.
Marvan Atapattu top Sri Lanka run scorer, 1 ½ pts at $10.00: Sportsbet.

Chamara Silva has made a name for himself at the World Cup and he looks a player to keep an eye on. I think he’ll become a fixture in this Sri Lanka side, in both forms of the game, for as long as he wants to be. The 7/1 about him, again generally available thanks to everyone copying each other, is a smidge of value. Shane Bond is in the form of his life and is adept at bowling to left handers, as he’ll see three of them in the top four I could foresee early wickets and our mate Silva coming in and rebuilding. I’d be 6s to 100% so just half a point.
Chamara Silva top Sri Lanka run scorer, ½ pt at $8.00: General.

Both teams have been relatively miserly with the wides they have bowled in the tournament to date and I expect this to continue tonight. Sporting Index have gone 14-15.5 the wides and I reckon this is about two too high. I’d make it 12-13.5 if I was pricing it up so I’d recommend a sell at 14 for 0.8 units. If you can’t get on at Sporting then sell them at Sports Acumen instead for 0.6 units.
Total Wides, Sell 0.8 pts at 14: Sporting Index.

Ladbrokes have put out a few different markets for the semis, good work ladies, and there’s one there that I like. In their “Who will score the most points market” they have Sangakkara as a 5/1 shot against Jayasuriya, Styris, Oram, Vaas and Taylor. I’d have their points valued at 48, 57, 50, 40, 34 and 33 respectively and would thus price Sanga up at about 4/1 to win it. It’s a good bet and will give you an interest in the whole match.
Sangakkara most points, 1pt at $6.00: Ladbrokes.

Plays of the day

Sri Lanka -12.5 Match Handicap, 2 pts at $1.90: Betworks.
Marvan Atapattu top Sri Lanka run scorer, 1 ½ pts at $10.00: Sportsbet.
Chamara Silva top Sri Lanka run scorer, ½ pt at $8.00: General.
Total Wides, Sell 0.8 pts at 14: Sporting Index.
Sangakkara most points, 1pt at $6.00: Ladbrokes.