England v West Indies – Super 8 Match

It’s very hard to work out who is going to bat where and what to expect from these sort of matches. There will be tears on both sides as England bid farewell to their grumpy looking coach, Duncan Fletcher, and West Indies see a legend of their game bow out in circumstances unbecoming of such a great player. Questions arise such as where will Lara bat himself in his last match – would he want to go up the order where he would have the best chance of signing off with a ton, or drop himself right down and give some youth a chance to make runs to show the world how much he cares about West Indies cricket. For England, will the jaded Andrew Flintoff play? Will they push Bopara up the order to give the future a better chance? Will Vaughan even play? It makes betting on these games a bit of a lottery so, unless you know something, most of the time it’s best to stay away. My inclination is that the $2.25ish on England at betfair is a smidge of value but there are so many question marks I won’t be having a bet.

One area where I have had an interest is in the Highest Opening Partnership market. Most places have West Indies favourite and we can back England at Even Money. Whilst the England captain is in no form whatsoever, neither is the super-cool Chris Gayle. I think West Indies will give Devon Smith another go at the top of the order but I’m not a fan to be honest. Vaughan’s opening partner, ding-dong Ian Bell is in very good touch and so are Jimmy Anderson and Saj Mahmood with the ball. Daren Powell has been bowling out of his skin for West Indies but his partner has struggled, whoever it is. All in all I would make England slight favourites for this so we’ll have 2 points to win. The risk is that Chanderpaul comes back to open with Gayle but even if this happens I think it should be a pick’em market and we would just be on a 100% bet.
England Highest Opening Partnership, 2 pts at $2.10: IAS

As mentioned before, Chris Gayle hasn’t had much of a tournament. He is the sort of batsman who gets on runs – when he’s hot he’s hard to stop, but when he’s cold he can barely lay a bat on it. His bowling seems to have been affected by his dip in confidence as well. In the past he would be relied upon to get through his full ten overs but he has averaged only 6 overs a game so far, reaping 5 wickets in 8 games played. Bet365 have put his player perf under mark at 53, at 5/6 ($1.83), and I think this is worth a bet. I’d make this level about $1.72 or lower so would suggest 2 and a half points. If you struggle to get on and think instead of selling him on the spreads, don’t. Gayle is the sort of bloke who can suddenly biff a massive ton and take 5 wickets. You just wouldn’t want to be on the wrong side of that unless you’re slightly masochistic.
Chris Gayle player perf, 2 points under 53 at $1.83: Bet365.

Plays of the day

England Highest Opening Partnership, 2 pts at $2.10 IAS.
Chris Gayle player perf, 2 points under 53 at $1.83: Bet365