Australia v Sri Lanka – Super 8 Match

This has to be the most mouth-watering fixture of the tournament so far, albeit a match that has no bearing on whether the two teams will qualify for the semis or not. What it could have a bearing on is who will play who in the semi-finals. There has been a fair bit of talk about long term tactics in the build up to this match – Sri Lanka won’t play the still-injured Lasith Malinga, who the Aussies have never faced, so they won’t get to have a look at him before the final, if both teams were to make it. They haven’t played each other since Australia beat Sri Lanka 2-1 in last years Tri-Series and there is even talk of Murali not showing his “full box of tricks”. What that quite means I’m not sure, everybody knows that he bowls a ripping off-break and a doosra that turns almost as much. Maybe he’s just intending to bowl a load of rubbish to keep them guessing. One thing is for sure, Australia will play their best and try to win the match. The $1.50 about them is tempting but, given that the pitch will not suit them at all - it’s expected to be low and slow - and that winning the toss in the last match here was akin to winning the match, I think it’s best swerving it.

In that last match between South Africa and New Zealand the strip was an absolute minefield first up and the Saffers did well to get close to 200. If it plays anything like that again I wouldn’t want to be an opener that’s for sure. The likes of McGrath and Bracken are just about the best in the world at extracting movement from the pitch, and this is why I’m interested in the 7/1 about Chamara Silva to be top Sri Lanka bat. Batting at five on this is just about low enough to avoid the demons likely to be in the pitch first up, but not too low to make it hard to get enough time to win it. Silva looks a class act and seems to have the sort of temperament required to rescue his side from a bad position. Given the difficulty against the new ball last time, I would be 6/1 Silva so we’ll have ½ a point to win.
Chamara Silva top Sri Lanka run scorer, ½ pt at $8.00: Sportsbet; Centrebet; Bill Hurley.

I also think it’s worth backing Sangakkara against Jayasuriya at $1.95 in a runs match bet at Uncle Bill Hurley’s. Sanath likes the pitch flat and true so he can hit through the line and bring his bottom hand into play - what he hates the most is sideways movement and Glenn McGrath in particular has a good record against him for this very reason. Sanga is a bit more equipped, technically, to deal with the seam and swing and, as has been mentioned in previous posts, is more likely to get a score on the board more often, as opposed to Jayasuriya who will hit a lot of low scores punctuated by the odd whopper.
Sanga should be $1.85-$1.90  – 1 ½ points to win.
Sangakkara v Jayasuriya runs match bet, 1 ½ pts at $1.95: Bill Hurley.

The pitch tonight is expected to be low and slow, after the initial burst with the new ball, and this means playing the spinners will be difficult. No one has really played Brad Hogg that well of late and very few read his wrong’un. Ladbrokes have gone 6/1 about him to be the top Australia wicket taker tonight but I think, given the circumstances, he should be more like 9/2 or 5/1 max. He has bowled very well in the tournament to date and already has 10 wickets. He is very likely to bowl his quota and should be in for about 1.5 wickets in the match. McGrath and Tait would be in for slightly more with Bracken about the same as Georgie boy. If someone doesn’t make hay with the new ball then Hogger has a real chance. 1 pt to win at the 6/1.
George Bradley Hogg most Australia wickets, 1 pt at $7.00: Ladbrokes.

Plays of the day

Chamara Silva top Sri Lanka run scorer, ½ pt at $8.00: Sportsbet; Centrebet; Bill Hurley.
Sangakkara v Jayasuriya runs match bet, 1½ pts at $1.95: Bill Hurley.
George Bradley Hogg most Australia wickets, 1 pt at $7.00: Ladbrokes.