South Africa v New Zealand – Super 8 Match

Only a couple of bets for this evenings mouth-watering clash between South Africa and New Zealand at Grenada. The Kiwis have done really well so far, but it has to be said that the fixture list has really helped them. The Sri Lankan game was their first real test to date, apart from beating a poorly drilled England team in the group stage, and they failed at that hurdle. It’s a really important fixture for both sides, a loss brings elimination at the Super 8 stage a little closer. If New Zealand win they are in the semis, but if they lose the prospect of net run rate deciding their fate looms, depending on how England fare in their final two fixtures. For South Africa lose here and they are in the do-or-die situation of having to beat England, unless England were then totally thrashed against the WIndies.

It’s a tight game but I think the South Africans are slightly over-priced. They were complacent against Bangladesh and never really got out of first gear, but I don’t think they will make that mistake again. South Africa have match winners in every department, any one of Smith, de Villiers, Kallis, Gibbs, Boucher, Pollock, Hall or Ntini can be match winners on their day. The Kiwis do still tend to rely on a couple of performers. If they don’t get a big performance from two of Fleming, Styris, Oram, Bond or Vettori then I think they will struggle to overcome this strong Saffers unit. The $1.75 generally available about the South Africans is worth an interest, I’d be $1.65-$1.70. 2 pts win.
South Africa to beat New Zealand, 2pts at $1.75: Sportsbet, Betchoice, Racing Odds.

Big Jacob Oram hasn’t really hit his straps in the World Cup so far but he’s only one massive hit away from finding the middle of his bat again. Batting six for the Kiwis doesn’t mean you are out of contention for top bat, they are still prone to the odd collapse, and though I don’t mind Fleming, Taylor and Styris, the top order has a slightly brittle look to it. If there is any assistance in the pitch early on then Pollock and Ntini will find it. The 12s about Oram is over-priced, I’d be about 9 or 10/1. ½ a point to win.
Jacob Oram top New Zealand run scorer, ½ pt at $13.00: Stan James, Lasseters.

Plays of the day

South Africa to beat New Zealand, 2pts at $1.75: Sportsbet, Betchoice, Racing Odds.
Jacob Oram top New Zealand run scorer, ½ pt at $13.00: Stan James, Lasseters.