Sri Lanka v New Zealand – Super 8 Match

There are two important pieces of team news for tonight’s mouth-watering clash: the Sri Lankan spearhead, Lasith Malinga, has injured his ankle and will definitely not play. Also, the Kiwi young-gun Ross Taylor is expected to return in place of Hamish Marshall. I had the Sri Lankans favourites before Malinga was out and he will obviously be sorely missed, but I think the market has reacted a little too much. I agree that the Kiwis should be slight jollies but I reckon $1.90-$2.10 split is more realistic. Sri Lanka still have a formidable batting line-up, which will only be strengthened by Farveez Maharoof coming in for Malinga, and a couple of class performers with the ball. New Zealand have performed brilliantly to date but I still think they are too reliant on Shane Bond and Daniel Vettori. The Lankans won’t enjoy facing Bond but they fare well against Vettori, he has a bowling average of 44 against them as opposed to a career average of 33. Unless Bond rips through them I don’t think there’s too much to choose between the two teams.
2 pts Sri Lanka $2.18 v New Zealand: Betfair.

The absence of ‘the Slinger’ draws me towards three markets in particular: Highest Opening Partnership, Highest 1st 10 Overs and Total Wides. Most places have got Sri Lanka favourites in the Highest Opening Partnership but with no Malinga to face up to I think this is wrong. I would have this as a pick’em or maybe even New Zealand slight jollies. Bond has been exceptional with the new ball all tournament and Upul Tharanga especially does not like it slanting across him – the way Bond will bowl to him. As mentioned in previous articles, Super-Sanath gets himself out early on numerous occasions as well. Whilst two-metre Peter is not a complete opener yet, he did top score for the Black Caps (or Grey in Craig McMillan’s case) in the last match and will be more confident for that run. Fleming is their class act with the bat and, crucially, they won’t have to face any sheer pace. Vaas is obviously classy but his new ball partner of Fernando or Maharoof are not in the same league. The 11/10 ($2.10) at Ladbrokes and Stan James appeals.
New Zealand Highest Opening Partnership, 2.5pts at $2.10: Ladbrokes; Stan James.

If you’re a very lucky person indeed you might be able to get some semblance of a bet on with Bet365. They don’t like it if you win at 365, or even if you put a good bet on that loses, and if you put a wager on that’s best market price they will be livid. Don’t let this put you off though, go and back New Zealand to score the most runs in the First 10 Overs at 6/5 ($2.20) there. The reasons are very similar to the opening partnership bet, no Malinga means an easier time against the new ball, but I like to concentrate here more on the Kiwi new ball attack. Shane Bond has a ridiculous economy rate of 2.44 in the tournament so far, nearly a whole run better than anyone else who has bowled 30 overs or more, and has proven difficult to face on any strip. I believe the Kiwis will opt for caution against the ex-policeman knowing that he could win the match for them in the first ten overs. Jayasuriya has been less explosive than normal early on so far and I don’t see any reason why he won’t be the same tonight. We should expect Bond to bowl half of the first ten, and his partner, Mark Gillespie or James Franklin, can be economical as well. I think the Sri Lankans should be very marginal favourites. 3 points to win.
New Zealand Highest 1st 10 Overs total, 3 pts at $2.20: Bet365.

These two teams have been exceptionally miserly with their extras in the tournament to date, but in particular with the wides they have sent down. Sri Lanka have bowled 27 in 6 matches – 4.5 a match – and New Zealand just 21 in 6 (this includes a 5 wides that Brendon McCullum uncharacteristically muffed in the last game) – 3.5 a match. On top of this the Lankan most likely to bowl wides in Malinga, he sent down 6 wides in their last match but one, isn’t going to play. Sporting Index have gone 13.5-15 but I’d have it wrapped around the 12 mark. Even though there was nearly 650 runs scored in the last match at Grenada there were only 9 wides bowled, so can assume the pitch is true and shouldn’t swing too much. Sell 0.75 of the wides at 13.5.
Sell 0.75 Total Wides at 13.5: Sporting Index.

Plays of the day

2 pts Sri Lanka $2.18 v New Zealand: Betfair.
New Zealand Highest Opening Partnership, 2.5pts at $2.10: Ladbrokes; Stan James.
New Zealand Highest 1st 10 Overs total, 3 pts at $2.20: Bet365.
Sell 0.75 Total Wides at 13.5: Sporting Index.