England v Bangladesh – Super 8 Match

A must win match for England tonight if they are to keep alive their hopes of making the Semi-Finals. As we’ve seen thus far Bangladesh are no pushovers and England will have to play well to see them off in Barbados tonight. I can’t find a bet in the head to head, if anything England are a lay at $1.23 but I’m not getting involved.

If Bangladesh are to win they will look to their three-pronged spin attack to do most of the damage, and Ladbrokes have come up with an interesting little bet that enables us to get with the ‘Deshi spinners against their seaming counterparts. They have put out a market asking whether the Bangladesh spinners or seamers will take more wickets and have gone $1.80 the spinners. In Razzak and Rafique they have two class performers and the back up, in Saqibul Hasan is tight and tidy. Mortaza is a classy opening bowler, his new-ball partner Rasel is steady, but the weather should be fair tonight and hence less assistance for the new ball. Other than the five mentioned, other bowlers have only contributed 4.2 overs in the whole competition for Bangladesh, and no wickets. I expect the spinners to bowl the lion’s share of the overs, up to 30, and this gives them an advantage over the seamers. There have been 21 spin wickets for them in the tournament to date, as opposed to 11 by Mortaza and Rasel. If you’d backed this in all of their matches to date it would be a winner four times, a loser once and one tie. The $1.80 is too big for me: the spinners should bowl more overs; there won’t be as much new-ball assistance; England try not to take too many risks up front; and two of the three ‘Deshi class performers are spinners. I’d make this more like $1.60 so we’ll have 5 points to win.
Bangladesh Spinners v Seamers, 5 pts at $1.80: Ladbrokes.

The next bet is slightly contradictory to the previous one but it still represents value so we’ll still back it. William Hills have quoted Abdur Razzak, the left arm twirler, to take less than 2 wickets in the match at 5/4 ($2.25). Admittedly he has taken an excellent 10 wickets in 6 matches in the tournament to date but the Kensington Oval is historically batsman-friendly and I don’t expect the pitch to aid any of the bowlers as much as the pitches previously encountered. Even bearing in mind this stat, though, Razzak has only taken more than 1 wicket in three of the six occasions, and one of these was against Bermuda. He has taken 2 or more 21 times in his 44-match career (48%) and I think this is simply a 50/50 shot. We’ll have 4 points here and hope Rafique takes a bundle.
Abdur Razzak match wickets, 4 pts under 1.5 at $2.25: William Hills.

Kevin Pietersen recently became ranked the number one ODI batsman in the world and Ladbrokes have celebrated by matching him against both England openers in a runs match bet. They’ve gone 4/6 ($1.67) the openers but I reckon this should be more like $1.50-$1.55. Michael Vaughan has not impressed to date, but he will be extremely keen to get through the first ten overs with his wicket intact and go on and make a big score. Ian Bell opened the other day against the Aussies and made an excellent 50, he looks in prime form. If England bat first then the openers would be in for about 70 runs between them and KP for about 45, you’d maybe be $1.60 or so in this case. But if England bat second then Pietersen’s runs expectancy comes right down to less than 35. In this instance even $1.50 would be a good bet. As we know Bangladesh are more than capable, but they are also more than capable of some classic calypso collapso cricket and if they go for less than 150 it would be very hard for Pietersen to beat the openers combined score. Just to make you feel a little more confident, in the last 10 matches here the openers have top scored for their team 9 times out of 20 innings, this highlights that it must be a decent batting track – one of the openers mightn’t even need any help from the other.
England openers v Kevin Pietersen runs match bet, 5 pts at $1.67: Ladbrokes.  

We’ll chuck all our eggs into one big basket now with our final selection. The England skipper Michael Vaughan to top score for the English at 5/1. As mentioned earlier, I don’t expect the new ball to be as difficult as Vaughan has encountered elsewhere and he will be extremely keen to rack up a big score if he gets in. There are all sorts of questions being asked about his place in the team but he is a class act and will be looking to answer a few of those questions tonight. He could be as short as 3/1 if they bat second and chase a small target and I could just about back him at $5.50 if they went in first. We’ll have one point at the $6.00 but if you can’t get this, take half a point at the $5.50 generally available.
Michael Vaughan top England run scorer, 1 pt at $6.00: Totesport.

Plays of the day

Bangladesh Spinners v Seamers, 5 pts at $1.80: Ladbrokes.
Abdur Razzak match wickets, 4 pts under 1.5 at $2.25: William Hills.
England openers v Kevin Pietersen runs match bet, 5 pts at $1.67: Ladbrokes.  
Michael Vaughan top England run scorer, 1 pt at $6.00: Totesport.