England v South Africa - Third Test

Mr Cricket was tickled pink with the South African win in the second Test because it not only gave us an immediate collect but also put us in the box seat for our series bet. We always thought the Proteas would be too strong for the Poms and they are now proving it despite a slow start in the first Test.

With the third Test at Edgbaston starting tonight, England find themselves 1-0 down in the four-test series and really needing to pull a rabbit out of the hat to avoid a home series loss. England enter the Test completely destabilised by their shambolic selection processes. Victorian bowler Darren Pattinson could be a one-Test player after receiving the chop while the baby-faced Stuart Broad has also got the bullet. England was heavily criticised for bringing Steve Harmison into its third Test squad - but he won't be playing with Ryan Sidebottom returning from injury and allrounder Paul Collingwood getting his spot back. If England have to rely on magic from Collingwood - so out of form it's incredible - and Sidebottom (who could struggle to take wickets in Australian club cricket) then they are kidding themselves.

South Africa has had its own major blow to contend with as Dale Steyn (our tip for leading series wicket-taker) is out injured, replaced with volatile giant Andre Nel. Even though Nel's bang-em-in style of fast bowling may not suit English conditions, we tip the snarling quick will make an immediate impression. Unleashing Nel after his stint on the sidelines is like firing off a scud missile - you never know quite what you are going to get but you know the result will be explosive. South African skipper Graeme Smith has reported back problems but he is as mentally strong as they come and we would be surprised if he didn't come up for this Test.

While we again favour South Africa in this Test, we will be steering clear of head-to-head betting as there has been torrential rain over the ground in recent days. The groundsman also suggests the pitch will take major seam and movement which could bring England's seamers more into play. So we will cheer for South Africa from a series point of view but look to have a few different bets to pick up some cash along the way.

In our first bet, we have banked on the theory that an experienced international player will do better than a relative Test newcome in high-pressure contests where the ball is likely to be swinging. For that reason, have a one unit bet with bet365 on South African opener Neil MacKenzie at $1.90 to outscore his teammate Hashim Amla ($1.80).
MacKenzie is mentally as tough as teak and knows how to handle tough conditions while Amla, although full of talent, is relatively new on the scene.

For our second bet, we will completely contradict our first bet and take on the vastly experienced Jaques Kallis. Kallis was one of the best batsmen in the world on his day but we are pretty sure his day has passed. The allrounder hasn't been able to fire a shot with the bat in this series and has only been able to muster 24 runs from three innings. It won't be any easier here and we want to have a one unit bet on Kallis at $2 to score 0-30 runs in the first innings with BlueSquare.

So that will do us for this match - there's plenty to cheer for - two bets involving this match and of course we'll be riding South Africa home for our series bet.

In other news, it is fantastic to see our favourite spinner Ajantha Mendis cleaning up in Sri Lanka's series against India. You might remember that Mendis gave us a great collect in the final of the Asia Cup and he continues to impress, taking eight wickets in his Test debut. We are absolutely convinced that this bloke - who bowls offspin and legspin with the same action but with a different click of his fingers - will be a rolled gold superstar. Watch this space.

© 2008 Punting Ace.com

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