LET'S get straight to the point here. After several bleary late nights watching the Lords Test, Mr Cricket is even more convinced that South Africa will win this series. If the Poms couldn't win a Test after scoring 593 in the first innings - and then forcing South Africa to follow on 346 runs behind - then how the hell are they going to win any of the remaining three Tests?!

Heading into the second Test, the Poms' now have plenty of psychological problems because they must have counted the first Test as one in the bag before South Africa's batsmen held the fort. England also have physical problems because they were kept in the field for the last two days of the Lords Test and their bowlers must be dog-tired. At the same time, South Africa's bowlers (who themselves copped a pounding in the first innings) had their feet up in the dressingroom while Neil McKenzie, Graeme Smith and Hashim Amla kept the Poms at bay.

The great interest in the second Test is the return of ace allrounder Andy Flintoff who returns to play his first Test in 18 months. Flintoff has had a few hits in county cricket but after so long out of Test cricket - and enduring four ankle operations - we think he will take a few Tests to hit his stride. We can definitely see him being short of a gallop and bereft of touch in this Test so we don't think his return is nearly as big a plus for England as some commentators are suggesting. Flintoff is set to bat at No.7 and will replace either struggling allrounder Paul Collingwood or injured seam bowler Ryan Sidebottom. Chris Tremlett has also been called up as a potential cover player for Sidebottom.

The Poms have pulled another surprise with former Victorian fast bowler Darren Pattinson being called up to the squad because of back soreness to James Anderson. Pattinson, a former roof tiler, never made any great inroads on the Australian domestic scene so it is a measure of how much the Poms are struggling that he is in the selection frame here.

South Africa do have an injury concern of their own with opener Neil McKenzie in doubt with a groin strain he sustained in his marathon knock at Lords. If McKenzie is ruled out, JP Duminy will come into the side and probably open.

The other change the South Africans could look at is bringing in paceman Andre Nel, either at the expense of spinner Paul Harris or quick Makhaya Ntini. Ntini recorded the worst figures of his career at Lords and we always thought his ''bang it in'' style would be unsuited to English conditions.

Whetever the changes, England will go into the Test with plenty of fatigue and feeling they missed a golden opportunity at Lords. South Africa will go in buoyed that the series is still 0-0 and their bowlers will be fresh. We can't possibly see South Africa's vaunted bowling attack performing so badly again. The Proteas, under astute captain Graeme Smith and coach Mickey Arthur, will have re-worked their plans and they will be a much more formidable outfit this Test. England will be worse.

So we will keep our bet simple and have a 1.5 unit bet on South Africa at their amazing odds of $2.94 on Betfair. That will do us!

© 2008 Punting Ace.com

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