Wimbledon 2008 Women's Draw Betting Preview

By Scott Ferguson

This year's women's draw is as open as I can remember. You couldn't have scripted it more evenly. No clear number one in the world means this is tricky which can mean a deep search for value can be rewarded! Venus Williams returns as defending champion in search for her fifth title. I've tipped her in her last two victories but at single-figure odds, I won't be getting excited by the price this time around.

It's been four years now since Sharapova stormed onto the scene and won. She has always played the Birmingham event as a lead-in to Wimbledon but this year elected to rest her chronic shoulder niggles and practice in Florida. It hasn't stopped the Willams sisters in the past so why not Maria? Serena hasn't reached the final since her run here in 2002-4, but last year was cut short by injury in that dramatic match against Hantuchova.

Of the other previous winners, Davenport and Mauresmo are well past it and have suffered illness and injury problems this season. In fact it wouldn't surprise if both of them were paying their last visit to SW19.

The top four in the betting are conveniently split up into quarters of the draw, but it's not that common that everything follows the script. The draw can open right up if there's a surprise result in the mix.

Running through the seeds in draw order:

1. Ivanovic - broke her Slam duck in Paris, dropping just one set en route to the title, which propelled her to world no.1. No warmup event on grass but that means little in the women's game. Semi-finalist here last year, defeated by the eventual winner. Likely to meet Vaidisova (tight three-setter in QF last year) or Chavetadze in the quarters, and Serena or Kuznetsova in the semi. Now that she has cracked that first Slam title, I think she'll be very focused on grabbing hold on the number one mantle and not letting go. Should be favourite. 4.75

30. Cibulkova - keen on this girl in the future but having a troublesome run with injuries this season. 1000

20. Schiavone - never better than R3 in seven main draws. 1000

15. Szavay - huge run of wins last year to catapult her into the top 20 but finding it tough now that she's 'on the radar'. 300

12. Schnyder - R4 last year was her best return in 11 visits. Don't be surprised if the Aussie gal Dell'Acqua sends her home in R1. 1000

18. Vaidisova - ran Ivanovic close in the QF last year, but in a horrible run of form. Has lost eight of her last 10 matches, with most of those losses at the hands of players outside the top 50. The curse of being engaged to Radek Stepanek is on. A likely scalp for Stosur if she can get out of R1. 500

27. Razzano - in a word, no. 1000

8. Chakvetadze - to describe her as mentally fragile is an understatement. Plays an extraordinary amount of three-set matches, always lay off if you ever back this girl in a match and she's a set in front. Struggling to link more than two wins together but with easy early rounds, she might be able to get some confidence back here. 250

4. Kuznetsova - three-time quarter-finalist who has slipped back from no.2 at the start of the year. Beaten by Venus here last year, and had a horror day at windy Eastbourne this week, serving eight doubles when getting pasted by Wozniacki. Seems to be focusing more on the big events rather than money-chasing every week. Tricky draw having to face the Bondarenko sisters in R2 and 3, followed by A.Radwanska before a meeting with Serena in the quarters. Not out of it, but draw does her no favours. 34

28. A.Bondarenko - battler who won't see week two (unless it rains in biblical proportions). 1000

17. Cornet - big mover in the rankings, dropping 40 places in five months. Not much grass experience but lost to Mauresmo at Eastbourne 7-5 in the third this week. Has a nasty draw, facing boom junior Pavlyuchenkova in R1, followed by Li Na (former top 20 player) and Radwanska in R3. If she can fight her way out of that, she's the real deal. 250

14. A.Radwanska - excellent record this year, only losing twice in R1 in 13 events, dropping her ranking from 29 to 14 in the process. Had a good tune-up at Eastbourne, defeating several handy players along the way to winning the final. She'll go close to winning one of these in the not too distant future. Capable of beating the big names on her day. 34

11. Bartoli - all her Christmases came at once last year when Henin was a set and a break up in the semi-final and capitulated. This season has been a struggle, a poor record of 10-15 and hasn't beaten a player in the top 25 all year. At the French Open she was complaining of fatigue (strange really, when you're losing nearly every match, you get a week to recover!). Back on the grass, she suddenly feels refreshed again. Won't make a lot of difference. Lisicki in R1 won't be easy. 500

19. Kirilenko - no interest in grass, went to Barcelona to play on clay instead. Fair enough considering she's only won one match here in four years. 1000

29. Mauresmo - thigh strain at Eastbourne last week, rib injury before that and mentally frail. More likely to retire this year than win another event. 400

6. Serena Williams - imposing record of 30-4 on grass, winning here in 2002-3. This year has been her best for a while, 28-4, and three of those were on clay. Faces the younger Radwanska in R2, then Kuznetsova/Cornet/A.Radwanska in the QF. I think she'll come back fresh on the grass and really give this a shake. 5

5. Dementieva - best record in years and back in the top five. Had match points against Safina in Paris and should have gone further. R4 looms as a chance to exorcise those demons. Could go deep in the event but probably needs luck in the draw to be there late. 65

25. Davenport - hasn't played for two months with illness and 'personal problems'. Last visit here was 2005 when beaten in a classic final by Venus. Lack of match practice will hurt, I doubt she'll have used the time off for an Agassi-like revival. 70

24. Peer - on a losing streak of five and seven of her past nine. She'd want to start winning matches again soon or her ranking will plummet. The British wildcard O'Brien has a chance of an upset in R1. 1000

9. Safina - hasn't done much on grass before, but reached the Hertogenbosch final this week, carrying on her solid clay form from Berlin and Paris. Will face a harder task beating Sharapova on grass rather than clay but she is on a roll. 20

16. Azarenka - her hard-hitting style would give her a chance in this but a knee injury at Eastbourne last week makes her a doubt to start. The talented Pironkova in R1 will test her fitness. 200

21. Petrova - has reached R4 here four of her last five visits. A lot of injury niggles in recent years and had expressed a desire for a break earlier in the year during a run of poor form. Now back in form, she has worked on her serve to become quite a weapon. She beat some handy players to reach the Eastbourne final. Tricky R1 v Govortsova who narrowly missed a seeding. Should go a few rounds. 200

26. Bammer - not up to this. 1000

3. Sharapova - loves grass, has always gone past R4 here, with a win in 2004 and two semis in her folio. Will be very happy to get back onto her favourite surface and is a big chance here. Now has three Slam trophies on her mantlepiece but they've been well strung out. Does she switch off after a big result? Beat Henin, Jankovic and Ivanovic to win the Aus Open in January, will need that form again to win. Her price is rather short around the traps today, can't see why she should be any shorter than Ivanovic or Serena. 5

7. V.Williams - four wins and two finals (beaten by Serena) in 11 visits. Dream draw, facing Brits in the first two rounds, the constantly injured Mirza R3, Hantuchova if fit R4, followed by Zvonareva/Wozniacki/Jankovic in the quarters. Form was reasonable through the clay season but this is where she turns it on. 6

32. Mirza - nope. 1000

22. Pennetta - nope, might be sent home by the talented Wickmayer in R2. 1000

10. Hantuchova - hasn't played for two months with a right heel stress fracture. Not the best event to resume in. 500

13. Zvonareva - missed last year, and lost in R1 before that. Not that bad on the surface (has won the Birmingham event) but faces Tanasugarn in R2 who is back in form, winning at Hertogenbosch. 500

23. Srebotnik - left ankle injury last week, must be doubtful. Tough R2 if she makes it, vs Erakovic or Krajicek who are both in form. 1000

31. Wozniacki - a dark horse in the field. Firstly, don't get confused with Wozniak the Canadian girl. The Danish 17yo won the junior title here in 2006. Beat Kuznetsova at Eastbourne then lost a tight one to Stosur in windy conditions. Worth following at triple-figure odds. 80

2. Jankovic - troubled by a forearm injury in Paris and withdrew from Birmingham to rest it. Hasn't got past the fourth round here in four attempts, her worst record at a Slam. Worth taking her on, I think she'll struggle to get past both Wozniacki and Venus. 22

THE BETS:

This is a tough event. Often the Betfair prices for certain players get better once the event has begun, so don't despair.

The headline pick: This really is a market in four. Sharapova is too short (as low as 2/1 with Ladbrokes), If you can locate any 5 or higher for Serena, then it's worth two points.

The roughie: Agnieszka Radwanska - 1pt at 33 and above.

To trade: Wozniacki - 1pt at 100 or greater, think about trading back if she reaches the second week.