Wimbledon Men's Draw

By Scott Ferguson

Wimbledon. The grass, the Pimm's, the strawberries and cream, the three-feet gap for spectators between outside courts, the queueing up for hours to get in because the LTA refuse to pre-sell general admission tickets, and of course, rain. It's a great tournament with all its tradition, but by golly it can be frustrating. Thankfully, interactive coverage across several courts means we can avoid the mindless drivel of all the old British 'greats' the BBC wheel out every year because they once got a wildcard because Daddy was a distant cousin of Lord Bottomswipe of Dorchester and made the second round in the days of black and white TV. Not to mention the drubbing some qualifier is getting at the hands of the defending champion - we'd rather watch a contest that both players have a chance of winning thanks!

No surprises who is top of the market this year, the five-time defending champion Roger Federer. But he has to be vulnerable this year. Sure he has won 450 (sic) matches in a row on grass but this year has been his most disappointing in ages. He was absolutely flogged in the Paris final and there wasn't a great deal between Federer and Nadal at Wimbledon last year. The guy is one of the all-time best but the chasing pack are now very close. Or two of them at least. Just two tournament wins all year for the Swiss maestro in lower echelon events is as big a return as Michael Llodra. His no.1 ranking is up for grabs now, any of the top three could leave as number one depending on where they bow out.

Nadal's ability to hit the angles makes up for lack of upbringing on grass. With the slower and lower bounce, that makes it very hard to tie him down, and his amazing speed around the court means anyone he is up against is in for a battering. Let's face it, only the 2m+ guys serve-volley now, technology has killed off the classic style.

Three players are head and shoulders above the rest. Can we make a case for anyone else? Roddick has beaten each of the top three in 2008 and two finals here. But he just lacks that edge to bring it home on the big stage. How about a serving machine like Ivanisevic? The obvious choices are Karlovic, Ancic, Isner and Querrey but the quality isn't there to back up the huge arms. A shame that Tsonga has a long-term knee injury as he would be a chance here on his Melbourne form.

Working down the draw:

1. Federer - Tiger couldn't be brought down with a knee Injury that would threaten careers in most sports, but Roger has been down a bit on his best all year after a 'minor bout of mononucleosis'. Fact or fantasy? In recent years he has been long odds-on to win at SW19, this time around he's odds-against. Soderling in R2 will make him sweat, as will Monfils/Guccione/Nishikori in R3. But realistically it's the semi against Djokovic where he'll need to be primed. He has both Djokovic and Nadal to beat to win his sixth crown. The Betfair Contrarian is also lining up to take him on, hopefully that's not a jinx. I've got to take him on this year.... 2.5

30. Monfils - could he have turned the corner with his semi appearance in Paris? That was a massive step forward for him, if he can stay fit for a change, then perhaps he can start realising all that potential we have been seeing for years. Tricky match first-up vs Guccione. 500

20. Hewitt - unlikely to ever win anything big with his degenerative hip condition. Evens to make week two. 250

16. Gonzalez - not here. 1000

11. Berdych - elevated in the seedings here because of his record at Halle in previous years. Might make week two, still haven't seen him look like he can threaten the top bunch of players. 250

32. Llodra - lefty with a booming serve who has won two titles this year. Very tough opener v Ancic as a reward for his first Slam seeding, a match worth watching. 1000

5. Ferrer - didn't get far here last year but then finished the year by beating Roddick, Nadal, Djokovic and Gasquet on carpet or hardcourt. Through to the final in Hertogenbosch as well, so his ability is far wider than just clay. Should make the second week where he'll face Federer in the quarters. 300

3. Djokovic - started fav v Nadal in the Queen's final and succumbed to the pressure after going a break up early. I think he gets a bit of stagefright against Federer or Nadal in finals, but is fine earlier in the tournament. Shouldn't have too much trouble reaching the semi against Federer. He'll need to be at his absolute peak to win that though. 6.5

13. Wawrinka - 2-8 on grass in three seasons, although Karlovic was one of his scalps. Wrong surface for him. 800

10. Baghdatis - hasn't done a lot in recent months with form and injury concerns, virtually bypassing the clay season but got a couple of wins at Halle before a clinical dismissal by Federer. SF and QF appearances in past two years but lack of match practice suggests a repeat is less likely. 150

18. Karlovic - huge serve but three straight R1 dismissals here. That's rubbish for a bloke who should be perfectly suited here. 500

31. F.Lopez - the rare serve-volleying Spaniard. Beat Henman here last year, probably not solid enough to beat Nalbandian in R3. 500

7. Nalbandian - finalist here back in 2002, looked like his career was on a downhill spiral last year until he won two Masters Series titles by beating the top three in the world but some spark is still there. You'd think he had a chance against Djokovic in the quarters unless you saw the drubbing (6-1 6-0) he copped from the Serb at Queen's. 150

6. Roddick - missed most of the clay season so is here nice and fresh. Beaten by Nadal at Queen's where he is a four-time champion and a two-time finalist here. Likely to face Blake in R4 and then Davydenko in the QF to line up a clash with Nadal in the semi. Needs the draw to open up for him to gets his hands on the trophy. 50

9. Blake - best record of third round here, a poor return for an elite player. Might better that with a R4 exit at the hands of Roddick. 800

14. Mathieu - beat three decent players here last year but coming off better lead-up form. First weekend at best. 500

4. Davydenko - reached R4 last year for the first time, apart from that hard to believe he's not been dropped below Roddick in seedings. No lead-up events on grass, he even elected to picked up an easy £50k winning a clay event in Poland (his first return to the country since that highly suspicious match last year) rather than bothering to adapt to grass. Early exit in store for him somewhere. 400

8. Gasquet - for a player who was too exhausted to play Roland Garros, he has made a miraculous recovery to play on his favoured grasscourts. Reached the semi here last year beating Mahut (who was on fire), Tsonga and Roddick before losing honourably to Federer. This is his best surface now, he loves the angles, slices and spins he can conjure up. Tough openers against Fish and Grosjean, with Murray R4 and Nadal in the quarter. The best chance outside the top three. 55

12. Murray - has published an autobiography this week. What a tosser. If ever there's a realisation that I'm not actually going to reach the top so cash in now, this is it. To be fair, he has all the pressure thrown onto him at Wimbledon and it's not the Slam he's best placed to win. How on earth can any British sportsperson excel locally with the ethically devoid Fleet Street press on their case all the time? He doesn't help his case by having the personality of a dung beetle. He's a later maturer than the second and third seeds so he still has a couple of years up his sleeve, but time is running out. Santoro is a nasty opponent in R1. I wonder how many racquets he'll break if he can't handle the French veteran? 150

2. Nadal - loved his work at Queen's. He beat Bjorkman, Nishikori (watch this kid for the future), Karlovic, Roddick and Djokovic to win the title, just a week after Roland Garros. He went a break down early in the final but dug deep to prevail in straight sets. He'll get plenty of early tests with his draw - Isner/Gulbis R2, Kiefer R3, Gasquet/Murray QF with Roddick most likely in the semi. He's gonna go close, darn close. 3.25

Other notables:

Nishikori - if you haven't heard of this Japanese kid, then keep your eye out for him. 18yo, has already won a title this year. Abdominal strain at Nottingham this week, may not be at his best.

Ancic - still most famous for being the last guy to beat Federer on grass. Long struggles with injuries and glandular fever, plus he just graduated from law school. Booming serve, enormous talent but perhaps looking beyond his career already. Tough opener v Llodra.

Isner - massive serve, if he learnt to volley, he could do something here. But he hasn't...

THE BETS:

It's time for the dawning of a new era. It's time for the era of Federer's domination on grass to end. Do we lay Federer or back Nadal straight out? You could go either way, I'm going to play safer and lay Federer just to have more on my side.

6pts lay Federer at <2.4.

Unfortunately the two players I like most to go several rounds (Ferrer and Gasquet) are drawn in the same quarter as the top two seeds. Can't see any other big prices worth trading as the key names should reach the semis without much trouble, so there can't be a lot of volatility.

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