US OPEN 2007 - Men's Draw

Love it or hate it, the US Open is bigger and louder than all the other Grand Slams. A centre court so big no-one can hit a ball out of the stadium, spectators in the cheap seats need binoculars just to see the ball and heaven help the poor kid who faces an American in there in front of a night-time crowd and dares question a line call.

Hardcourts generally give every player some chance. The DecoTurf surface is faster and less spongy than Melbourne's Rebound Ace (which is changing next year anyway) so it does assist the more aggressive player - hence the recent success of local giants Sam Querrey and John Isner in leadup events.

Just two men however have claimed the last ten Grand Slam titles, and no prizes for guessing that Roger Federer has won all of them bar the exploits of Rafa Nadal at the French. But on the other hand, in the past ten years here, four players have broken through to win their first major - Rafter, Safin, Hewitt and Roddick. Is the pack closing in on Federer or is he so far in front that the rest are just playing for the runner-up cheque?

MEN, in draw order

1. Roger Federer - the Swiss maestro has looked a little rusty of late. Although winning the Masters Series title in Cincinnati, Hewitt took him to a third-set breaker (after being up a break) in the semi along the way, and Djokovic defeated him in the Montreal final the previous week. But let's face it, when you're that good, you've got to wonder where the motivation comes from outside of the big four events. Cosy draw with qualifiers in his first two rounds, and American TV networks will salivate at the replay of last year's final (v Roddick) expected to take place in the quarter-final. In theory an easier draw as his side only contains seeds four, five and six but it makes little difference to this bloke. 1.6 (price represents what I'd consider backing him at)

13. Richard Gasquet - has gone missing after reaching the semis at Wimbledon, losing his only two matches on hardcourt - to Verdasco in Montreal and then retiring against Hewitt in Cincinnati with blisters. Has reached the fourth round here on both previous visits, and he's odds-on to go home at the same stage again this time. 200

9. Tomas Berdych - another who was impressive at Wimbledon then has gone AWOL. Losses to Lopez, Haase and Davydenko (has a poor 0-6 record v the Russian) blur a 33-17 record for the year. Extremely talented but with Benneteau, Mathieu and Roddick in his path before Federer, he'd better be firing to get through the first week. 150

5. Andy Roddick - with the King of Flushing Meadow, Jimmy Connors, in his corner, you shouldn't write off Roddick but my personal opinion is he's too much of a one-trick pony. He has an odd record here, finishing either in R1, the quarters or the final. Gimelstob in R1 is a virtual cripple so he could beat him left-handed so you can forget that one, but meeting one R.Federer again in the quarters, it doesn't look like he'll be there on the final Sunday again in 07. 100

4. Nikolay Davydenko - in decent form once you dismiss the Sopot debacle. As the highest seed in the second quarter of the draw, you'd assume he would progress through, but he has some negative h2h scores to overturn - Canas 2-3 but he has won the last two clashes and an abysmal 0-6 v James Blake, winning just two sets. Semi-finalist here last year. 125

19. Andy Murray - will win this one day if his career keeps progressing but has no chance here while his wrist is still not 100%. 500

14. Guillermo Canas - played a lot of matches early in the year on a mission to get his ranking back, defeating Federer two weeks in a row in the spring Masters Series events, but has floundered since the French Open, going just 6-6 since the start of June, a blemish on early figures of 31-9. Will need to beat Davydenko in R4 to get into the business end of the tournament. 250

10. Tommy Haas - had to pull out of Wimbledon at the fourth round stage with a stomach muscle tear but has put that to bed with good recent form in North America. Best suited by this surface, he is in the right quarter of the draw to make an impression if playing at his peak. 200

18. Marcos Baghdatis - beaten in a marathon QF at Wimbledon by Djokovic, the Cypriot has won a few matches in the lead-up events and looks in good form. His record here though is quite poor, winning just two matches in three visits. Surely that's just a temporary blip in his career but it does baffle me that he is the shortest price of any in this quarter. 150

6. James Blake - in fantastic form back on home soil, reaching the final in consecutive events at Cincinnati and New Haven on a run of 16-3 on the hardcourt swing. This is his time of year and there is no better entertainer than Blake when he is making his shots. A quarter-finalist here for the past two years, he can go one round further this year if he navigates past Baghdatis/Haas and Davydenko or Canas. Even with the New York crowd behind, he's not going to turn around a 0-7 record v Federer if he reaches the semi. 66

8. Tommy Robredo - easy draw for the first week but never going to challenge here. 500

17. Carlos Moya - reached the semis here way back in 1998 but hasn't been past the fourth round since. Beat Nalbandian and a tired Djokovic in Cincinnati recently. Meets Youzhny in R3 before Robredo then Hewitt or Djokovic. Can never rule him out but I just feel the drive to succeed in the big events has left him. 350

11. Mikhail Youzhny - a great season has him sitting on the edge of the top ten for the first time in his career. Made the semis here last year, beating Nadal then losing to Roddick in four sets. A nice draw, he should face Djokovic (2-1 h2h) or Hewitt (0-2 h2h but five yrs ago) in the quarters. No reason why he can't repeat last year's performance. 66

16. Lleyton Hewitt - with Tony Roche now in his camp, you'd expect improvement. Only beaten by Federer in the recent Masters Series events and was up a break in the final set before losing in a tiebreak in Cincinnati, continuing a streak of 11 losses to the world no.1. Loves this venue, having reached at least the quarters for the past seven years. Thumped Djokovic here last year in R3 when the betting was close, will need to get past the Serb again to maintain his Flushing Meadow record. Fifth favourite in the market, and possibly some value too. 40

3. Novak Djokovic - broke through to beat Federer for the first time in the Montreal final. Lost his first match the week after in Cincinnati but look on that as a good thing - he's been able to take a 10 day break and arrives in New York relatively fresh. 65 matches so far this year takes a toll on even a young body. Tricky start to the tournament facing Ancic (former top 10 player returning from glandular fever) and then Stepanek who is back in form now that he's shrugged off the curse of going out with Martina Hingis. Then he has to get past Hewitt and
Youzhny just to reach Nadal in the semi. Can win, he can certainly become the next guy to start his Grand Slam trophy cabinet, but I don't think he's value with this draw. 11

7. Fernando Gonzalez - started the year in fine style but has three straight R1 losses since Wimbledon. That's got to be a worry and Gonzo isn't known for being the most stable character mentally. If Larry Stefanki has his mind in order, then he could rip through this draw like he did in Melbourne. Or he could be the first big seed to fall. Record here isn't great and I can see him bombing out, quite possibly to Ginepri in R2. 350

25. Marat Safin - too much of the party lifestyle and an aching body puts him in the Moya category - if the planets were all in alignment he could surprise everyone, but too much needs to go his way these days. 300

12. Ivan Ljubicic - has won six matches here in eight years, and has only beaten Amer Delic in three events since Wimbledon. Oppose him in matches from day one. 1000

15. David Ferrer - beat Roddick in Cincinnati and his hardcourt record this year is an impressive 21-9 for a Spaniard. Plays the tricky Mayer in R1, and is drawn to meet Nadal in R4 which would be his best result here. Not without a chance. 400

24. David Nalbandian - plagued by chronic knee problems, I think we may have seen the best of him already. Has only reached the quarter-finals once all year which is poor for his ability. This time last year he was ranked four, his ranking is looking to be only going one way. 1000

27. Dmitry Tursunov - quirky customer, won the Indianapolis event before the pair of Master Series, then has lost to Kiefer and Benneteau in R1s in the following weeks. Starts off against his bunny in Henman (5-1 h2h) but then we find out if he's on song or just enjoying himself too much. 500

2. Rafael Nadal - beaten by Djokovic in Montreal then retired with cramp in the bicep in Cincinnati. He also reported hamstring tightness there as well. Reached the quarters here last year (lost to Youzhny) but that was coming off decent lead-up form. Assuming he's fit and ready to go, he's got a pretty cosy draw - Tursunov, Ferrer, Gonzalez etc should all be easy pickings for him but the semi looks his acid test - Youzhny/Hewitt/Djokovic to overcome to secure a date with Federer.
Should avoid any Americans so the crowd might get right behind him. Needs to be at his absolute best to challenge for the title. 8

Floaters

Nicolas Kiefer - has the game to annoy Davydenko in R2 and could open up that section of the draw. 800

Gael Monfils - highly-talented but mentally feeble. Draw could open up nicely for him if he turns up ready for action. 750

Robby Ginepri - wasted talent who spends too much time chasing Hollywood starlets rather than playing tennis. Probably a bit harsh considering his chronic shoulder problems mean he now barely serves faster than my Mum, but he's also one of these American mummy's boys who forgets how to play if he needs his passport to attend. Made the semis here two years ago, if by some miracle he found that form again, he could repeat it. 800

Tim Henman - no chance but farewell. 5000

THE BETS

Hard to go past Federer, he'll have had time to freshen up and we know he only really cares these days about the Slams. But I'm prepared to take him on as I think we might see a break-through winner, but I suggest waiting until the final as I don't see any threats to him in the top half.

The bottom half of the draw looks rather open. Youzhny, Hewitt, Djokovic, Nadal and possibly even Ferrer have decent cases for support. At the prices, I'm leaning to the Russian. Trading in the outright market is always going to be tricky with Federer taking up 65% of the book, so take a look at To Reach the Final and w/o Federer markets as well.

LAY Federer (but not before the semis) (risk 3pts stake)

BACK Youzhny for a trade in the outright market, and for a bet in the To Reach Final market. (risk 2pts stake)

© Punting Ace.com 2007