Speed & Pace Analysis

By Heath Cram -
Jockey agent representing Chris Munce

Chris Munce is one of the most professional jockeys going around and would be the first to agree that jockeys find no more important tool then an accurate speed map and prediction of pace in a race. If a jockey or form student can get this area of the form absolutely spot, then I have no doubt that you have gone a long way towards winning.

Along with predicting the likely leader and where the speed in the race will come from, another important area that must be addressed is the tempo that the lead horses are going to run along at - known as the anticipated race speed, is it Fast, Even/True, Moderate or Slow?

Maps are also very useful in the case of track bias, knowing where your mount is going to be, relative to the other runners, the going and bias on the day.

Key Notes…

It is the barrier position and early speed of not just the horse that interests you, but all of those around it, which will determine the settling positions of horses. Early Speed & Barriers.

Heavy tracks lessen the reliability of maps. Further incentive not to bet when dealing with bog tracks. If the track is disgraceful on the inside, you can end up with horses from barriers 3, 4 and 5 getting 3, 4 and 5 deep, and happy to be there!

Horses racing alone or un-pressured in the lead are likely to perform in the upper reaches of their capabilities and be very hard to beat if they were already one of the better hopes in the race.

And the obvious… the further a horse is drawn out, the more speed it needs to possess, and harder it has to work, to cross a field.

Speed Maps are pictorial representations of how a race will be run and the likely "Settling" Positions
The punter who can produce "accurate" race maps, does not need too much else to win at the races!

Below is an example map (Positions on Settling), that I produced for the 2005 Shannon Stakes, won by Lotteria.

(1500m) ANTIPATED PACE: SLOW

*** The Bottom Line of this Table Indicates the "Inside Rail"

In this above example, Jymcarew (barrier 8) pulled himself to outside the lead (throwing his head everywhere) from his wide alley. Events like this are impossible to predict. All we can do is "map what we expect". More often than not, you will be close to the mark based on past performances. Another thing that can affect a map is the stewards notifying punters of a change in riding tactics. Pay very close attention to this information and edit your map accordingly.

Get into the habit of drawing a quick speed map, even if it is only rough, when studying form. If nothing else, it will make you think about where "you" (your selection) are going to be in the run, and whether the race looks as though it will be run to suit. Drawing and reviewing your maps can effectively change your overall views of a race. High pressure for positions on-speed leads to a solid tempo, a solid tempo then starts to favour those getting the cushy runs behind the speed with cover. In contrast, no pressure to the predicted leader leads to soft tempo (slowly run race), and if the leader can gallop a bit, he/she will prove extra hard to get past.

4 Simple Steps To Building Your Map:

1) Sort the race field into "barrier" order.

2) Allocate in-running position to each runner (e.g. Lead, Midfield, Handy, Rear etc.) relative to the race distance.

3) Configure the race field based on barrier position and early speed. Then re-analyse and re-configure (if needed).

4) Predict the overall race tempo based on what the map shows, and make your final judgement (race assessment).

© Heath Cram 2005

To visit the website of Chris Munce, click here