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French Open 2007 - Men's Draw

The women's draw doesn't stand out as a classic year - no Kim Clijsters, Martina Hingis or Tatiana Golovin and a swag of injury concerns in the bottom half in particular, but that potentially makes things easier for punters.

The seeds

1. Justine Henin - missed the Aus Open with relationship issues but has clocked up an impressive 22-3 record since. Losses only to Safarova (in first event back), Serena Williams and Kuznetsova. Has won three of the past four titles here and no obvious danger to her. Draw says Serena in
the quarters, Jankovic or Vaidisova in the semi with Kuznetsova the most likely opponent on the final Saturday. Clear favourite. 2.5

2. Maria Sharapova - best result here of quarter finals twice. Has only played one other clay event outside of Roland Garros in two years. She hates the surface and won't be winning here. A recent shoulder injury adds to the concerns. Lay her 'til the cows come home! 50

3. Svetlana Kuznetsova - gets her chance here. Has drawn the soft half, so her path to the final isn't that tough. Her main problem is her record in finals - 0-4 this year, and 3-7 since May 05. Beat Henin in Berlin but then lost the final to Ivanovic. Can see her reaching the final, but the mental demons may prevent her going any further. 12

4. Jelena Jankovic - the biggest danger to Henin, but is drawn to play her in the semis. Has played an amazing 54 matches so far this season, does she ever get tired? Withdrew from a semi-final in Strasbourg on Friday with gastroenteritis, can assume with a few days off she'll be right as rain. Her draw looks pretty simple for the first two rounds, and I can't her struggling too much against Venus in R3. Dementieva R4, then Petrova or Vaidisova in the quarters. 6.5

5. Amelie Mauresmo - complete and utter choker who capitulates anytime she looks like getting to the business end of this event. Ten events here, never past the quarters and has had everything in her favour so many times. Safarova in R3 and Chakvetadze in R4 await. Lay her 'til the cows come home! 50

6. Nicole Vaidisova - hasn't played for a month due to a right wrist injury, not a good sign. Reached the semis here last year and would be a strong chance to do it again if she's fit. Would be much shorter if we knew she was fit. 40

7. Ana Ivanovic - won the Tier I event in Berlin last weekend, defeating Kuznetsova in a third set breaker. 24-9 for the year, should face Medina Garrigues or Hantuchova in R4 then Kuznetsova in the quarters if she clears that hurdle. Needs to win one of these to get over the 'rising talent' tag. 34

8. Serena Williams - has played just eight matches on clay in almostthree years but her last four trips here have resulted in two quarter-finals, a semi and a title. Few gave her a chance in Melbourne, so don't write her off on lack of clay practice. Early draw looks comfortable enough, Safina in R4 will be her first test. Would need to overcome a 1-3 h2h record on clay v Henin to get down to the business end. 8

9. Anna Chakvetadze - has climbed into the top 10 on the back of impressive hardcourt form. Her clay figures of 24-19 lifetime mean she'll need luck to go a long way here although her draw isn't particularly hard. 100

10. Dinara Safina - in good form with a record of 24-10 for the year, but struggles to beat anyone ranked above her. Should pick off the little fish easily enough, but will have a task to beat Serena in R4. 200

11. Nadia Petrova - twice a semi-finalist here, but ignore last year's R1 exit when she played injured. Has the most to gain from Vaidisova being injured, a quarter-final clash against Jankovic lies ahead.

12. Daniela Hantuchova - has climbed backed into the top 15 with a 22-12 record this season. Prefers the faster surfaces. Medina Garrigues and Ivanovic block her road to the quarters. 150

13. Elena Dementieva - 10-3 on clay this year, winning the Istanbul event this week. Sounds impressive, but she hasn't beaten anyone ranked above her. Reached the final here in 2004. Bartoli or Jankovic will send her home early. 125

14. Patty Schnyder - same old story, always thereabouts, never going to win anything of note. Doubt it will bother her too much considering she's won over US$5.5m in her career. Has reached R4 four times in past five years. Right quad strain in Istanbul ruins her chance of reaching the semis here. 65 if fit.

15. Shahar Peer - clay record this year of 3-3 in stark contrast to 15-3 in 2006. Far better than that, reached R4 here last year and can do so again without much trouble. 100

16. Na Li - not a threat on clay. 500

24. Anabel Medina Garrigues - beat Mauresmo in the Strasbourg final on Saturday, and is one of the few clay-court specialists in the women's game. Hantuchova in R3 and Ivanovic R4 block her run to the quarters. 150

25. Lucie Safarova - handy chance to make the semis from the bottom half. Mauresmo R3 (took her scalp in Melbourne), Chakvetadze R4 (beat her in Berlin recently), then you have the injured Schnyder and Sharapova for the quarters. A definite trade. 60

The Bets

You've got to say Henin will be mighty tough to beat. Revels in the conditions here and sits well clear of the field in the betting. Jankovic is her main danger, and looks likely to face her in the semi. The h2h record is 5-0 in favour of the Belgian, but every clash has gone to three sets (first set to the Serb on four occasions). The bottom half is full of chokers and injury doubts.

Back Henin for the title at 2.5 and above. If she plays Jankovic in the semi, lay whomever wins the first set (match betting) as a long, tight clash is almost assured.

The trade is Lucie Safarova - I expect the draw around her to open right up in the first week. She has beaten her main dangers in the first week so we're not asking for miracles. Anything over 100 will do, she's a bit higher than that at Betfair at the time of writing.

If you fancy laying, I'd take on both Mauresmo and Sharapova for the reasons above. While they are both in the 15-25 price bracket, laying the pair of them will make your effective bet < 10. You could even wait a couple of rounds to lessen the price and the risk.

 

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