French Open 2007 - Men's Draw

Yet again a Sunday start in Paris to cash in on more weekend visitors and stretching it out even longer for bookies and punters.

What looked like being a rather predictable Slam just a fortnight ago has changed markedly after the Masters Series event final in Hamburg just a week ago. Rafael Nadal looked set to add to his remarkable tally of 81 straight wins on clay after taking the first set comfortably against arch-rival Roger Federer. But then the world changed dramatically - hell froze over, water fountains turned into beer kegs and geeky Eric scored the hottest chick in school - it must have all happened at once because Nadal won just two games in the final two sets as Federer tore him apart on his favoured dirt.

Perhaps I'm overstating it just a little as you could find a few things in favour of the world number one - Nadal had been on a long, tiring run and was severely stretched by Hewitt the day before; he'd had a virus the previous week in Rome which he played through; and Federer's record in German tournaments now stands at nine trophies from nine.

However you look at it, it now means we've got a decent betting contest - roll on French Open 2007!

The seeds

1. Roger Federer - inconsistent clay season by his lofty standards - finalist in Monte Carlo, flogged by Volandri R3 in Rome (sacking his coach soon afterwards) and then winning Hamburg despite dropping a set in four of his five matches. His confidence on the dirt will have jumped up majorly after beating Nadal - perhaps he can complete the lifetime Slam this season. Cushy draw, might get to meet Volandri again in the quarters. 3.25

2. Rafael Nadal - simply awesome on clay until last weekend. So now what do we think? Give him the benefit of the doubt for being tired on the back end of a virus but you have to be concerned about his weakness against Federer's tactic of high topspin into his backhand. That will have been noted by any player he'll face in the immediate future. Faces exciting young Argentinian del Potro in R1 and probably Hewitt in the quarters. I'd want to see him fresh and firing before thinking about taking the odds-on to win the title. 2.0

3. Andy Roddick - meets the Russian Andreev in R1, will probably be going home. Capable of winning a few rounds, but never going to threaten winning here. 750

4. Nikolay Davydenko - hard-worker, semi-finalist here in 2005, but recent form is nothing special - losses to Monaco, Hewitt and Patience in the past month as well as a tight three-set defeat by Nadal. R3 vs Almagro looks to be his test - if he clears that hurdle, then a quarter-final clash vs Canas, Gasquet on Gonzalez awaits. 200

5. Fernando Gonzalez - finalist in Melbourne, then a finalist in Rome. He's now the real deal. In a tricky quarter, should face the winner of Canas v Gasquet in the third round. Strong chance to make the semis but we won't get anywhere near the price we did in January. 80

6. Novak Djokovic - clearly the best chance outside the top pair. In phenomenal form this year, currently 35-8 with his worst-ranked loss being to the no.13 seed here. Three titles already this year and has only just turned 20. This kid can play! Clear third favourite and will one day step up and match it with the big two. 25

7. Ivan Ljubicic - 23-10 this year and his ranking has dropped from 3 to 7 since November. Made the semis here last year when blessed with a run void of any player ranked under 75, but his Grand Slam record is pitiful apart from that blip. 3-4 since the tour hit clay this season, who sends him home? My tip is Volandri in R3. 600

8. James Blake - if Roland Garros seeded according to surface like Wimbledon, this guy would be seeded 25 at best. Won't see a claycourter until round three, so he might last until Friday. 1000

9. Tommy Robredo - claycourter who never seems to be a threat, always one of the 'thereabouts'. Faces Sergio Roitman in R1, 'famous' for being the only player to be matched at 1.01 in-running on Betfair and lose twice in 2007. Just seems to be too much of a pretty boy to ever win something big. 250

10. Tomas Berdych - gains a top 10 ranking by virtue of Haas and Murray being injured. Tricky opener v Garcia-Lopez, then lined up to meet Moya in R3 who beat him in Hamburg recently. Ready to take that next step and be a contender at the big events. 200

11. Richard Gasquet - enormous talent but yet to pull it out on the big stage. He has reached the round of 16 at all other Slams, just not here. Yet to step up or another Mauresmo in the making? Canas in R3 will start his troubles - Gonzalez and Federer lie in waiting further ahead. 100

12. David Ferrer - solid through the clay events, and able to beat most but the very best on the surface. Draw looks easy enough until a QF berth against Djokovic, whom he has managed to beat both times they've met on clay. Could go deep with a bit of luck. 80

13. Mikhail Youzhny - started the year on fire but losses to Lee, Kohlschreiber and Mayer on clay don't inspire greatness. Yet to get past R3 in seven visits, Ferrero in R3 looms as the big danger. 400

14. Lleyton Hewitt - almost written off as a contender before he took Nadal to 7-5 in the third in a cracking encounter in Hamburg just a week ago. It wasn't a fluke, he'd already taken out Almagro, Calleri, Chela and Davydenko to get there. Something has obviously changed in his head - could he go one better v Nadal in the quarters? 100

15. David Nalbandian - not seen for a month and has a chronic knee ailment. Chela followed by Almagro or Davydenko lie ahead, not opponents you'd want to hide an injury against. Capable on all surfaces but can't ignore the lack of fitness. 250

16. Marcos Baghdatis - barely above 50/50 on clay, not the record you want to see when you come to Paris in May. Could survive a few rounds if he gets past Grosjean in R1. 1000

17. Juan Carlos Ferrero - playing well but the days of competing against Federer and Nadal are long gone. Loves it here, might get a set off the top seed if he meets him in the quarters. 300

18. Juan Ignacio Chela - always tough to beat on clay but never going to threaten at this level. Could have a fight on his hands against Monfils in R2. 400

19. Guillermo Canas - the big story of the year, beating Federer twice in hardcourt events in the spring, after returning from a ridiculously-flawed drug ban imposed by the ridiculously-flawed ATP. Has had to play as many events as possible to get his ranking back, and you can understand him needing a break. Ignore the two R1 losses in Germany in the past month, the rest will have done him a world of good. In a section of the draw with some quality players but is at least as good as all of them. A big chance to make the semis at a juicy price. 50

20. Jarkko Nieminen - 5-6 on clay in 2007, won't last the first week. 1000

21. Dmitry Tursunov - v. ordinary on clay, can't see him winning more than one match. 1000

22. Marat Safin - enigmatic isn't a strong enough word to describe this bloke. Immensely talented but so inconsistent. A record of 13-12 this year is poor by his standards. Has reached the fourth round or better here in six of eight visits, would need to beat Robredo (leads the h2h 3-2 on clay) to do it this time. 500

23. Carlos Moya - always a dangerous floater on clay. Has Berdych (beat him in 3 sets in Hamburg) to surpass in R3 before a meeting with Nadal. Also beat Djokovic and took a set off Federer in Hamburg, so arrives in top form. Hasn't been past the quarters since his win here in 1998, but if Nadal happened to be off his game, stranger things have happened. 200

24. Dominik Hrbaty - never a threat at this level. 1000

25. Robin Soderling - capable on clay, but prefers faster, indoor courts. Will be tested in R1 v Montanes and probably going home R3 against Nadal. 1000

26. Agustin Calleri - going home R3 v Djokovic. 1000

27. Jurgen Melzer - tough match R1 v Acasuso, followed by Monaco and then Gonzalez. Will need to step up to reach the middle weekend. 1000

28. Philipp Kohlschreiber - has improved 30 places in the rankings in 2007, and won a clay event in Munich. Could be the guy to knock out Blake, but that's as much of the headlines he can grab this time. 1000

29. Filippo Volandri - thrashed Federer in Rome in front of his home crowd, could meet him again in the quarters if in similar form. Couldn't see him doing it again though. 400

30. Julien Benneteau - not up to these. 1000

31. Florian Mayer - honest trier but stretching it to believe he should be seeded. Going home R1 v Mathieu. 1000

32. Nicolas Almagro - 19-7 on clay this year, hardly played on anything else. Since the tour came back to Europe, he has only lost to Berdych, Volandri, Federer and Hewitt, and won the title in Valencia. This kid is good, could surprise Davydenko at a price in R3. 250

Floaters

Not too many to worry about here. Paul-Henri Mathieu has been playing well this year, faces Mayer in R1 and is scheduled to meet Igor Andreev, the other one to watch, who can KO Roddick on opening day as well.

Tips

Federer v Nadal? Roger has an easier draw but on the counter, Nadal will get to wash out any cobwebs in his game in the first week. Can't back either at the prices. Consider laying Nadal during week one if he's not looking as invincible as he used to.

Djokovic looks the clear pick outside of the top two. He's got the softest quarter by a mile and is better than all players bar two this year. If you back him in a without Federer & Nadal market, bear in mind it will probably be a dead-heat result split with whomever wins the second quarter of the draw. So a price of 4.5 isn't quite so attractive. Look for at least 2.75 to make semis, or 5.5 without the big two.

Canas and Moya are my smokeys. Canas is definitely good enough to win through his quarter, but he will face some tricky opponents. He's tradeable from about 85 on Betfair in the outright but I'd prefer to back him in the without the big two markets at around 15. Back Moya in the outright for a trade, he's capable of beating Berdych and Hewitt to force a meeting with Nadal, and would have some chance of winning that too.

© Punting Ace.com 2007