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RG 2006
By Scott Ferguson
Not content with making tens of millions of euro each year, the French Tennis Federation have decided to start the French Open a day early, so they can make more money out of the public.
For the first time in years, we have two really good betting events. The men's title effectively comes down to Federer and Nadal, who have started a rivalry with the potential to be bigger than any previous duo on the men's circuit. The women's title is wide open with a mixture of fit-again regulars, rising talents and players who have turned the corner such as Nadia Petrova.
Men:
1. Federer - simply a machine and really aching to win this title. It's the only he has left to complete the set, and he's got that tenacious Spanish kid diluting his impeccable record in finals. The classic five-set final in Rome recently means he's only a couple of points away from stopping his run of four straight losses to Nadal. 15/8
2. Nadal - A run of over 50 consecutive wins on clay leave little doubt this kid is the real deal. Defending champion and having a 5-1 record over the 'invincible' Federer, he is the one to beat on this surface. Accordingly, you'll find him odds-on in the betting just about everywhere. 1/1
3. Nalbandian - last player to beat Federer in a genuine tournament before Nadal's run. Despite being South American, he doesn't play a lot of clay events and his record in Paris is actually the worst of all the Slams - a record he will be keen to improve. Lost in a final-set breaker to Federer in Rome SF. The obvious next pick. 33/1
4. Ljubicic - workhorse who should be suited here, but claycourt record is nothing flash (career 58-52) and Slam record is rubbish - Aus Open QF was the first time he'd been past the third round in 26 attempts. Not the same player on clay and entitled to be big odds. 200/1
5. Roddick - ankle injury and hopeless on clay anyway. 500/1
6. Davydenko - semi-finalist last year on the back of a win in Austria. He's in that final today. Tricky section of the draw with Moya, Ferrero, Gaudio in his 1/8th before Nalbandian in the QF. Can't see him beating either of the big names if he got that far though. 66/1
7. Robredo - may have turned the corner, winning the Hamburg Masters Series lately, but that event was severely weakened by the withdrawals of Federer and Nadal. Has reached at least R4 for the past three years, Acasuso looms as a test in R3, otherwise a clash with Federer in the QF looks likely. 66/1
8. Blake - not a clay player. Faces Almagro in R2 who will give him a kicking. 500/1
9. Gonzalez - faces Safin in R1 - a tricky way to start a Grand Slam. Good start to the European clay season, with later round losses to Federer and Nadal in Monte Carlo and Rome. Mental stamina often a problem in Slams for him, but a gritty 10-8 fifth set Davis Cup win over Blake earlier in 2006 shows improvement. Safin, Djokovic, Haas, Almagro is his path to a QF with Nadal. 150/1
10. Gaudio - winner here in 2004. Will come into this quite fresh - since taking a set off Nadal in the semis in Monte Carlo, he's bombed out early to Malisse and Simon. In a very competitive quarter, but good enough to get through if he's on his game. 125/1
11. Stepanek - a poor record in Slams but who knows where he might have got had the 7-5 in the fifth loss to Baghdatis in Melbourne been reversed. Makes his bread and butter in the lower tier events, the highest ranked player he has beaten in 15 months is Davydenko. In the softest part of the draw though, Baghdatis R3 followed by Roddick/O.Rochus could send him through to the quarters and beyond. 200/1
12. Ancic - made the semis in Hamburg defeating Davydenko along the way, but not a real threat on this surface. Moderate draw, could easily make R4. 400/1
13. Kiefer - reached R4 last year before having to give a walkover due to injury. Not in the same form as last year though, losing to Martin and Mirnyi in his last two tournaments before victories over Volandri and Gaudio in the World Team Cup. 500/1
14. Hewitt - ankle injury concerns and just gets spanked on this surface by a genuine dirtballer. Soft early rounds, providing he lifts to beat last week's slayer, Marcos Daniel of Brazil, a pasting by Nadal in R4 will probably be his reward for lasting the first week. 500/1
15. Ferrer - very cosy draw which could ultimately see him in the semi-finals, one step further than last year. Recent clay form nothing brilliant but he really has got all the favours here. 66/1
19. Baghdatis - troubled by ankle, back and groin injuries since his amazing run in Melbourne. No form to speak of on clay, but a soft draw if he's fit enough to hang around. 250/1
24. Ferrero - not the threat he once was, has lost twice to Almagro and Ferrer since April. In the really tough Q2, the old JCF would do it in a canter, but those days are long gone. 300/1
25. Monfils - faces Murray first-up who beat him a fortnight ago in Hamburg. Prefers a faster surface to suit his power game. 500/1
26. Acasuso - big-hitting talent who will face his acid test in R3 vs Robredo. Has some good wins under his belt this season - Volandri, Ferrer, Ljubicic, Grosjean and Verdasco can all handle the dirt quite well. A QF clash with Federer would probably be his curtain call. 200/1
Floaters:
Gasquet - plagued by an elbow injury and may not even start. If fit, he'd be yet another chance in the tricky second quarter of the draw.
Almagro - another top Spanish kid coming through the ranks. If he plays Monfils or Murray in R3, be sure to watch it as chances are they will play many times in the next decade. 50/1
Safin - fitness, physical and mental, is always a concern for him. I can see him saving his best for the North American hardcourts later in the year. 500/1
Women:
1. Mauresmo - the French choker fell over the line in Melbourne to win her first Slam, neither the semi nor final went the full distance with her opponents having to retire on both occasions. Is that what has to happen for her to win a Slam, or is she now over the hurdle and it will be the first of many? 7/1
2. Clijsters - brilliant enough to win again, but fragile enough to break down at any moment. Copped the tougher side, drawn to play either Dementieva or Hingis in the QF, then Henin-Hardenne or Petrova in the semi - she'd want to be fully fit. 7/1
3. Petrova - flying this season, winning five events in the past eight months. Has played many more events than those around her, but has finally started winning them. Twice a semi-finalist here, she's on the harder side of the draw, but having beaten Mauresmo, Henin-Hardenne, Schnyder and Safina this year, she is capable of sticking to her form and bulldozing past the lot of them. 6/1
4. Sharapova - hasn't played since the end of March due to a foot injury. Clay form nothing great - will beat most below her but finds it tougher to beat those in the top ten. 25/1
5. Henin-Hardenne - defending champion and the one to beat again, although not as decisively as in previous years. Her previous wins here in 2003 and 2005 came amongst clay seasons with records of 20-1 and 24-0 (win-loss record). This season she is already 9-2 suggesting she's not as bullet-proof this time around. Has Ivanovic or Myskina lined up in the round of 16, followed by Petrova, then Clijsters. She's a lay for me at around 3/1.
6. Dementieva - finalist from 2004 in poor form, at least on paper. Her four losses this season on dirt have been to Henin-Hardenne, Clijsters, Hingis and Safina, no shame there, although only collecting two games against Safina is nothing to be proud of. The worst server in professional tennis will face Hingis in R4, and unless she improves markedly on recent weeks, she'll get caned. 50/1
7. Schnyder - has her seeding due to the number of events she plays rather than extraordinary talent. Clay record this season is only 9-6, her best Slam results are on hardcourts and faces Michaela Krajicek first-up. A definite risk. 100/1
8. Kuznetsova - handy player but I can never get her right. Prefers the high-bouncing hardcourts of North America but has a very handy draw. If the mind is willing, she has all the breaks she needs already. 16/1
9. Schiavone - not a player you'd think of as a winning chance normally, but her losses on clay this season have only been to Petrova (Amelia Island final), Clijsters (Warsaw QF) and Hingis (Rome R3). On the easy side of the draw, and has beaten Kuznetsova before. A good trading proposition. 66/1
10. Myskina - the epitome of a headcase. Anyone backing her needs therapy. Faces Mirza first round who will cause her problems. 150/1
11. V.Williams - would normally say no chance on clay but her limited campaign this year has almost totally been on the dirt. A win and a loss against the Swiss Miss, a win over Schnyder and a loss to Kuznetsova are her highlights. Very soft draw, she's made the quarters at least in every 'even' year since 98. 16/1
12. Hingis - roaring back into serious contention with a run of good form. This is the only Slam she hasn't won, so to complete the set after a three- year layoff would be something of a fairytale. She's comfortably been beating players outside the top 20, but her losses have been to the top tier - Clijsters, Mauresmo, Williams, Sharapova etc. It's a big ask, but it's not beyond her. 12/1
13. Groenefeld - seeded this high by virtue of playing more events than anyone else in the top 25. Won a weak event in Mexico early in the year, big surprise if she won a Slam. 300/1
14. Safina - Marat's little sister who is now getting some big wins under her belt. Defeated Clijsters, Dementieva and Kuznetsova in Rome before losing the final to Hingis. Previous two losses were to Henin-Hardenne anda tight one to Petrova. Decent chance at odds with her draw. 25/1
19. Ivanovic - retired in Berlin recently with a thigh muscle strain, fitness a query. Reached the quarters here last year. 80/1
The Bets:
MEN - Barring injuries, only the top can win it. Every man and his dog seems to think Federer will bounce back here, and I have to agree. Yet I can't get involved in the prices on offer, I’d rather wait and just bet on the final. I'm going to focus on players who I believe will go a few rounds and thus create nice trading opportunities.
Gaudio - mentioned above
Monaco - Argentine who will be a huge price, he's beaten both Chela and Verdasco (R2 opponents) this year.
Serra - under-rated Frenchman who won't get past R3 with Nadal, but should still shorten a few points.
WOMEN - This is tough. My headline bet has to be lay Henin-Hardenne. No value at all with the tougher side of the draw. I think Petrova is a real live chance of winning, but think the value has gone.
Two bigger-priced players with a real chance of popping up at the business end are Safina and Schiavone, and I'll be backing them to trade back in week two.
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