Australian Open 2009 Womens Draw

Is it just me or have we rewound six years to when the Williams sisters headed every market? At least this time they are only just favourites, not a mile clear. You can get better than evens about either of them winning. There are a lot of good young players poised right behind them to make an impact. Could we see a new face holding the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup?

Seeds: Women

1. Jelena Jankovic (SRB) - world no.1 but hard to genuinely think it while she's yet to win a Slam. Missed Sydney with a virus, but gets cushy draw here. Should be able to cruise along until the business end. Recommend watching her early rounds first if you want to back her, price can't move much against that opposition. Should go close. 9

2. Serena Williams (USA) - typical ungracious self when she lost to Dementieva in Sydney, but to be honest, I wasn't expecting her to win that one anyway. It's Slams or nothing for her and she's reported to be very keen to get to number one again. Week two looks tricky for her with possible matches against Azarenka and Radwanska before a semi against Venus or Dementieva, but she's up to that task. Recent record is she wins here in the odd years (03,05,07) and guess what, it's an odd year again. 4.25

3. Dinara Safina (RUS) - horrible record here (never past R3 and lost R1 last year) but expect that to change. No pts to defend means she can climb even higher in ranking with a good run here. Avoids the Williams sisters half of the draw so every chance of reaching the final. Main obstacle will be Ivanovic or Wozniacki in the quarters. Great chance. 9

4. Elena Dementieva (RUS) - won title in Sydney beating Serena and Safina along the way but don't read too much into that. Also won Auckland the week before, she loves cleaning up on the bread and butter events. Is she capable of winning a Slam though? Reached two Slam semis last year and has reached R4 four times here, but never further. Her serving woes look to be behind her with a revised action able to back up her solid ground game. Not the easiest of draws, potentially has a couple of dangerous floaters early (Lisicki R3, Cibulkova R4) before being faced with the Williams sisters. Definite chance to win but would prefer to wait until later in the event to back her on that draw. 10

5. Ana Ivanovic (SRB) - hampered by a virus in Brisbane which a few players seemed to catch, although not boyfriend Verdasco by the look of it. Played well when she was fit (thrashed Kvitova who won in Hobart). Beaten finalist here last year (by Sharapova) then won French Open but bombed in latter two Slams. Will drop further in ranking (was no.1 briefly last year) if she doesn't go deep here. Faces Wozniacki in R4 then Safina in the quarters before Jankovic and either of the Williams sisters. That's a shocking draw for a player not in the best of form and bound to be harassed constantly by the media. 16

6. Venus Williams (USA) - comes in on limited campaign as per usual, but in top form, 32-5 since the start of Wimbledon last year and no known ailments. Still hasn't won here though, with a final in 03 and semi in 01 her best returns. Probably has the best draw of all the big names considering form as well. As per usual, her only concern, at least in her head, will be having to face Serena in the semi. Ripe to make a big run, but her price well and truly covers that. 4.5

7. Vera Zvonareva (RUS) - missed Sydney with a virus. Ended 08 with a bang, reaching the final of the WTA Tour Champs, defeating Jankovic, Ivanovic and Dementieva. Reached fourth round in 04 and 07. Very soft quarter of the draw apart from maybe Errani in R3 and Jankovic in the quarters. If she arrives in the form she ended last year in, she is capable of making the final. 25

8. Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS) - abdominal strain in Sydney, not in good shape at all particularly when you look at her recent form - lost four of past six matches and struggled against players she should beat clearly in Sydney. Really soft early draw, drawn to meet ninth seed in R4 who will eat her for breakfast if not fit. Too many head problems to win a Slam (1-10 in finals in past two yrs) even if she was fit. 80

9. Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) - Quarter-finalist last year as 29th seed. Beaten by Dementieva in a tight one in Sydney. Poised to make a charge at a Slam this year. Nice draw, may face Kuznetsova in R4, otherwise Serena in the quarters looks her first tough task. 40

10. Nadia Petrova (RUS) - spent much of December in hospital with viral meningitis and lost R1 in Sydney. Must way miles behind in condition to win a Slam in searing heat. Easy draw to go a few rounds though. 250

11. Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) - the 'boom horse' of 2009. Was 36-11 on hardcourt last year, made R4 of both hardcourt Slams. Had three matchpoints against Serena in Sydney but couldn't seal the deal. Yet to beat a big name, but to be honest, has hardly played any of them. Not the easiest of draws, starting with former top 20 player Peer in R1 then Ivanovic R4. Up to the task. 25

12. Flavia Pennetta (ITA) - 37 to 13 since this time last year, really improving her record on hardcourt along the way. Poor record here but did reach the US Open quarters last year. Can go a few rounds with the right draw. Venus R4 looks her exit point. 250

13. Victoria Azarenka (BLR) - dominant in winning Brisbane title (first tournament win in her fifth final). Hard off-season training at the Bollettieri Academy has made her much more confident in her fitness and ability. Pulled out of Sydney with a cold, nothing to worry about. Made at least R3 of all Slams last year, this year should see her going a bit further. Tricky R1 facing Hobart winner Kvitova followed by star teen Pavlyuchenkova R2, Serena R4. Maybe next year then. 40

14. Patty Schnyder (SUI) - on a four-match losing streak and chucked a wobbly at every official in sight in Hobart, blaming them for everything from foot faults to global warming. Reached QFs or further in 05-07 but on the wane now she has passed 30. 500

15. Alize Cornet (FRA) - risen from 59 to 16 since this time last year. Looks incredibly frail but can really hit it. Best results so far on clay. Nursing a shoulder ailment over the past few weeks, but seems to be managing OK. Only losses this summer to the flying Safina (two), four wins otherwise. Faces Hantuchova in R3 (battle of the stick women) followed by Safina. Not this year. 200

16. Marion Bartoli (FRA) - nasty calf injury in Sydney after reaching Brisbane final, must be a risk even after a week off. Appalling record here, never past R2 in seven attempts. 500

17. Anna Chakvetadze (RUS) - top of tennis.matchstat.com's worst players to bet on list. Seems to have lost the plot a bit since the violent robbery at her family home back in Dec 07. Went 59-20 in 2007, and only 29-20 last year, with regular brain fades in her matches. 3-10 since late August. Tricky R1 vs the Brit in good form Keothavong. 500

18. Dominika Cibulkova (SVK) - unbeaten in the Hopman Cup but then got hammered by the flying Wozniacki in Sydney. Apparently not so popular among the players for her personality on-court (a bit confrontational like Stepanek). Lost R1 here last year but has since moved from 48 to 19 in the rankings. Has beaten Jankovic, Safina, Ivanovic, Venus and Dementieva in that time so can't see her being afraid of too many. Could make a charge with some luck in the draw. Has Dementieva and Venus in her path. 80

19. Daniela Hantuchova (SVK) - semi-finalist last year on limited lead-up campaign as well. Reached R4 or further last three years. Can't win but if last year's form turned up, week two is likely again. 300

20. Amelie Mauresmo (FRA) - retired in the Brisbane semi with a thigh strain. Will she be fit? Found some form again in latter half of 08 on hardcourts, can reach week two on that form, but no longer at the elite level. 220

21. Anabel Medina Garrigues (ESP) - just average on hardcourt, not a threat here. 1000

22. Jie Zheng (CHN) - finished 08 with four losses on the trot, but 2-2 against handy players in the new year. Was ranked 163 this time last year, is a big occasion player and very capable of shocks. Cirstea in R2 will make her sweat as will Radwanka R3. 300

23. Agnes Szavay (HUN) - no.2 on Matchstat's worst players to bet list. Such a huge boom on her this time last year, and the bubble has burst big-time. Has lost 12 of past 15 matches going back to late July, and those wins were all against wild-cards or qualifiers. Awful form, oppose her from the start. 800

24. Sybille Bammer (AUT) - missed Brisbane with an illness, beaten R1 in Sydney. Has lost 5 of her last 6 matches so confidence can't be brimming. Could be gone R1 v Safarova. 1000

25. Kaia Kanepi (EST) - almost beat a wounded Kuznetsova in Sydney. Handy player but doesn't win tournaments. 1000

26. Ai Sugiyama (JPN) - semi-finalist in Sydney but beat nobody to get there and Safina still won despite playing awful tennis. Long past it. 1000

27. Maria Kirilenko (RUS) - over-rated pretty face. Thumped in Sydney by seed 29 below in only warm-up match. Not a good sign. Faces in-form Errani in R1 as well, bye bye. 1000

28. Francesca Schiavone (ITA) - ill in Brisbane (missed a doubles match) then lost in qualies in Hobart after an admin error left her out of the draw. Usually wins a round or two. 1000

29. Alisa Kleybanova (RUS) - loads of talent, loads of weight. Could lose 10-15kg easily. Oppose her if facing a counter-puncher on a warm day. 1000

30 Wozniak, 31 A.Bondarenko, 32 Tanasugarn - all examples of not enough depth in the women's game. 5000

Dangerous Floaters:

Sara Errani - just missed the seedings, made the semis in Brisbane. Capable of winning through her quarter at her best, and possible trade material. 400

Sabine Lisicki - Bollettieri-trained German prospect who made it through qualifying to reach R3 last year, beating Safina and stretching Wozniacki in the process. Capable of knocking out the 30th seed in R1 and going a few rounds. 400

Petra Kvitova - in great form winning her first title in Hobart during the week. Full of confidence but a tough R1 vs Azarenka. 400

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - Russian prospect in the bottom quarter of the draw. Keep watching her this year. 500

The bets:

The more I look at this draw, the more I come back to the Williams sisters, although they're not much value.They are at the top of their game, they've arrived in great form, and they're both fit. It's rare they go home trophyless in that state. So back them both, then you don't have to worry about the soap opera if they face off in the semi-final.

Back Serena and Venus at >4 for 2 units (to win same amount, adjust stake if price slightly different). If you can't get better than 4 for each of them, it will work out better to take the 2.25 at PaddyPower for a Williams sister victory.

Can't see a huge amount to trade because the market will simply put any bolter at huge odds to beat either Williams sister, thus the price won't drop that much even if a few seeds fall away.

If you can still get on, BetFred put up 50/1 on Errani to win the first quarter and I had to have a nibble. That section is the most likely to fall apart and bring up a fresh face at a huge price.

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