The Australian Open Womens Draw Betting Preview

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By Scott Ferguson

The 2008 season opens with the traditional Australian Open in Melbourne. But it's a little different than recent years. The TAB betting tent has been booted out of Melbourne Park because the ATP and ITF have finally recognised there is more than a 'perceived' problem of match-fixing in the game. After years of players getting to stuck to Rebound Ace on stinking hot days, the surface has been changed to Plexicushion and despite all the press statements, nobody has really worked out yet

whether it's faster or slower, or helps the grinder or the power player.

The women's draw is a funny one - either Henin is a certainty after a record of 63-4 last season, or the January form of the Williams sisters, Davenport, Sharapova and Kuznetsova mean it is wide open!

Working down the draw:

1. Henin - her record last season was better than Federer, yet she is nearly double the price. Went 63-4 in 2007, has won 29 matches in a row, and has reached the final in six of her last seven Slams. Won here in 2004, lost in the final of 2006 (retired v Mauresmo with a gastro illness), missed 2005 and 2007. Golovin in R4, Davenport or Sharapova in the quarters, and Jankovic or Serena in the semi. If she wasn't perceived as frail because of her physique, she'd be well into the red. 1.9

13. Golovin - strode into the top 15 last year with two tournament wins and another final. Surprisingly her Slam run was poor, R3 Aus, missed the French, R2 Wimbledon, R1 US Open. Better performances this year will see her into the top 10. She should get through to R4 fairly easily, where she'll face Henin. 150

11. Dementieva - dropped out of the top 10 for the first time in years in 07. A couple of injuries gave her time to work on her awful serve, now she has something that won't get laughed at constantly. If it stands up under pressure, she might be able to return to the form which saw her reach two Grand Slam finals back in 2004. 150

Davenport - Big Lindsay is back. Since returning in September after the birth of her first child, she is 18-1, with three titles including Auckland just over a week ago. Hasn't won a Grand Slam singles title since 2000 (here) but reached two finals in 2005. Her match against Sharapova in R2 will be a cracker, although the slate stands at 1-4, each of the losses went to three sets. Can't see her winning, but she'll give any of the names a run for their money. Welcome back. 40

5. Sharapova - a year with a persistent shoulder ailment saw her ranking drop back to number five with her best result reaching the final here. Now she has a nightmare draw with Davenport R2, Dementieva R4 followed by Henin in the quarters. Healthy shoulder or not, I can't see her surviving that. 20

3. Jankovic - is she fit? She hobbled through the Hopman Cup with a strained left thigh and then played two three-set matches in Sydney. Tricky match first up against young Austrian Tamira Paszek. R3 v Razzano, R4 v Mauresmo or Schnyder, QF v Vaidisova or Serena. But if she survives that, she still has to overcome the Henin hoodoo, currently 0-9 with little sign of turning. 34

18. Mauresmo - battling to be fit with a groin injury. Falling down the rankings after injury troubles last year but more injuries might stop her before she even starts this year. 67

15. Schnyder - her best Slam results have been here, with two QFs and a semi in the past four years. Can't see her getting past Jankovic in R4 this year. 400

12. Vaidisova - semi-finalist in Sydney, losing to Kuznetsova by making too many errors under pressure. Reached the semis here last year, losing to Serena, followed by QFs at Roland Garros and Wimbledon. Opening week should be a breeze, the tough stuff begins when she faces Serena (h2h 0-3) in R4 followed by Jankovic (h2h 6-3). 34

23. Zvonareva - must be a doubt to start after pulling out of the Hobart final with a sprained ankle. Out of her depth at this level anyway. 1000

26. Azarenka - injured in Hobart with a thigh injury. Very promising if fit, lost in final at Gold Coast before that. 300

7. Serena Williams - looking to join Court, Cawley, Graf and Seles as four-time winners of the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup in the professional era. Faces new Australian Gajdosova in R1. Vaidisova R4 and Jankovic QF look her main rivals before Henin in the semi. The h2h now stands at 6-6 but Henin has won five of the past seven with four of those wins in Grand Slams. Reports suggest she is keen to chase the number one ranking again and arrived in Perth for the Hopman Cup in far better shape than she was in this time last year....when she won. Don't write her off. 7

Bottom Half

8. Venus Williams - has probably been dealt the best draw of all the big names. Looked in great form in the HK Invitational event and is probably able to put more time into training now that she has her studies out of the way. Add a recent engagement to golfer Hank Kuehne, and she's in a good frame of mind at the moment. Looking forward, both Bartoli R4 and Ivanovic QF have yet to beat Venus and Kuznetsova in the semi trails 3-4 in the h2h. Her record is ordinary, just one final back in 2003, beaten in a tight match by her sister and token efforts since. However I think a revived focus on tennis and inspiration from Serena's success last year will mean she has a serious crack at the title this time. Certainly the draw couldn't do her many more favours. 9

10. Bartoli - new arrival in the top 10 last year after reaching the Wimbledon final. But her record here is woeful - never past the second round in six attempts. She's always looked a bit frumpy, perhaps Ms Bartoli likes Xmas cake a bit too much? Poor form in Sydney and has a tricky one first up v Arvidsson, a former top 30 player, who leads the h2h 3-2. 500

16. Safina - got a lot of matches in at the Gold Coast with three singles matches going the distance and then winning the doubles event with Szavay. Lost a tight one to Hantuchova R1 in Sydney, perhaps a little tired. Handy player but not much chop in the Slams - just two QFs and three R4s from 21 main draws. R3 v Bondarenko or R4 v Ivanovic likely to send her home. 500

4. Ivanovic - steadily moving up the rankings and now putting the heat on the top three. Copping the glamour girl attention from the media but seemingly coping with it well, and most importantly, still winning tournaments. Only two R3 exits to show for three visits here, but made the final in Paris and the semis at Wimbledon, 2007 was a big year for her. Lost to Henin in the Sydney semi when the Belgian was completely off her game so I can't see her turning around the 0-4 record too soon. If she can get past Venus, she's a chance of being there on the final weekend. 17

6. Chakvetadze - creamed by Sharapova in Hong Kong and lost R1 to Srebotnik in Sydney. Solid Slam results last year - semi US Open, QF Aus Open and Paris, but had plenty of luck in the draws. Did have victories over Jankovic, Serena (w/d after losing first set) and Venus during 2007, but still not perceived as a threat in big events. Should reach the quarters here and do battle with Kuznetsova (h2h 0-3). 66

22. Safarova - reached the quarters here last year after being tipped in this column to make a run. Retired with a gluteal strain in Sydney, if fit her test will be Hantuchova in R3. 400

9. Hantuchova - 28 straight Grand Slam singles berths for a best result of quarter-finalist (three times) and last back here in 2003. Sure this is her best ranking for some time but that stat dictates the rating of 'no threat'. 1000

14. Petrova - was seeded five here last year. Lost R1 in both leadup events, Gold Coast and Sydney. Gives dinosaur Nicole Pratt a great chance of one last win at this event in R1. No chance. 1000

20. Szavay - the big mover of 2007, from around 200 in January into the top 20 with a barnstorming run of 39-7 from Roland Garros through to the end of the year. This girl is going places and the progress hasn't stopped yet. Lost R1 of the Gold Coast after a well-earned break, but hung around and won the doubles with Safina. Can't see much trouble for her before Kuznetsova in R4. She had two shots at her last year with no success, but she's still on the improve and should have learned from that. If she beats her, she is capable of mixing it with the Williams sisters and Henin. Great draw. 50

29. A.Radwanska - lost in R2 to Ivanovic in three sets last year and has improved 30 ranking places since then. Kuznetsova in R3 looms as her first tough task and despite losing to her three times last year, got closer each time, with both hardcourt matches going the distance. Talented but doubt she's mature enough yet to contend in the second week. 400

2. Kuznetsova - nicely parked away from all the main threats, so assuming she can deal with Radwanska, Szavay and Chakvetadze, should reach the semis. But her record at the business end is poor. No better than a QF appearance here back in 2005, a 2-16 record v Henin and has lost six of her past seven finals. This is a good a 'leg up' into a final as she could ask for so might be worth a trade. But still needs a miracle to win the title. 25

THE BETS

Henin is begging to be backed at 2.25 or higher. She is that much better than the rest of the tour at the moment. The dangers are on her side of the draw but most will knock each other out. Her worst path would be Sharapova, Serena, Venus and she would be clear favourite in each of those matches. The all-up might pay better but if her path was Dementieva, Jankovic, Kuznetsova the odds wouldn't be a sgood.

I backed Szavay a few weeks ago and intend to line up again. This girl can really play and a not-so-impossible win over Kuznetsova would crush her price instantly.

5pts Henin outright 2.25 or greater
1pt Szavay to trade
0.5pts Dementieva to trade

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