French Open 2008 Betting Preview

Scott Ferguson

With the shock retirement of Justine Henin just 10 days before the French Open, the title is anyone's for the taking. To have another star female player burnt out and retiring in her mid-20s is a warning for tennis authorities, they've got to slow the players down, particularly on hardcourts or their bodies will all be broken before they hit 30.

1. Sharapova - on her own admission plays clay like a 'cow on ice'. Had a viral illness in early May, and then withdrew from the semi in Rome with a left calf strain. Won her first clay title ever at Amelia Island in April, but defeated no-one inside the top 20. This is now the only Slam she hasn't won, and reached the semis here for the first time last year. Perhaps she has learnt to slide and play on the surface? If fit, then Safina in R4 is probably her biggest test before the final. 7

2. Ivanovic - fast approaching number one but has a runner-up effort here last year to defend. Reached the final in Melbourne and won Indian Wells earlier in the year. Excellent clay form last year (16-3), but only 3-2 this year. Beaten by in-form Pironkova in Rome, prepared to forgive that as a blip as she made too many errors yet created many more break points. Her clay preparation has been hampered by a fever and a never-ending schedule of modelling assignments. If at her best, she should be favourite, but I doubt that's the case. 7.5

3. Jankovic - still playing an enormous amount of matches, but claimed the Tier I title in Rome last week. Great chance to win but has quite a tricky section to get out of - Cibulkova R3 followed by Radwanska/Cornet R4, all of whom are in great form. After them it's Venus followed by Serena or Ivanovic just to reach the final. I think she's up to it, but her price will be unders. 7

4. Kuznetsova - take out the hardcourt spree in March (12-3), and her record for 2008 is a modest 9-5. Has lost eight of her last nine finals. Just 2-2 in clay tournaments, losing to A.Bondarenko and Cornet. That's not Slam winning form. Any sign of her best and she'd reach the semis at least, but I think that's no better than evens to occur. 20

5. Serena W - in brilliant form, 26-2 plus a walkover since Jan 1. A back injury in Rome hampered her lead-up but she practised at Roland Garros this week without problems. Won here back in 2002 when at her absolute peak. She's probably not that far off that form now. Deserved favourite, easy draw until Ivanovic in the quarters. 4.5

6. Chakvetadze - quarter-finalist last year, but is struggling this year. Seven of her last eight matches have gone to three sets, her mental fragility is no secret so watch any match she's playing and be prepared to lay her when a set up. Not up to winning at this level. 40

7. Dementieva - has worked hard to get back from 15 in October to seven here. 24-7 is her best form for years and her worst result in her past six events has been a quarter-final. Beat Ivanovic and Jankovic on the way to the final in Berlin when beaten by the rampaging Safina. Her serve is holding up and she was a finalist here back in 2004. Might need a bit of luck to get by Sharapova or Safina, but right in this if she can. 15

8. Venus W. - good form this year but all form on hardcourt. Hasn't won here before and can't see her changing that but will should reach week two. 40

9. Bartoli - wrist injury this week in Strasbourg and unlikely to play. You can't strap a wrist, it's a tennis player's worst nightmare.

10. Schnyder - R4 exit in five of past six exits and that looks her level again. Has won just two titles in nearly six years. Lacked the killer instinct to beat Sharapova here last year in controversial match, that's always been her problem. Would still find a way to lose if all the seeds above her fell down. 200

11. Zvonareva - in her best form for years, 33-9 with four finals yet only one title in Prague. Has victories over Jankovic, Dementieva, Safina and Azarenka in that run of form. Has Dementieva and Sharapova in her quarter, not beyond the realms of possibility she could beat both. 40

12. Szavay - great run of form to end last year but apart from one final appearance at the Paris Indoor, hasn't done any better than a quarter-final. When her serve is off, it's woeful. Serving at just 34% saw her creamed by Errani in Rome. Has quite a soft draw but I can't be tempted into backing her again. 60

13. Safina - a live outsider after her breakthrough win in Berlin, defeating Henin (last player ever, remember that for trivia quizzes), Azarenka, Serena and Dementieva. That form would send her very deep here. Has to get past Sharapova for second week action. 22

14. Radwanska - still improving but yet to start beating the bigger names. Apart from an upset win over Kuznetsova in Melbourne, her biggest scalp is outside the top 40. Not yet. 80

15. Vaidisova - struggling with a wrist injury, has lost her past five matches. 200

16. Azarenka - reached the semis in Berlin, beaten by Safina, but then retired in Rome with a knee injury. If fully fit, she can make an impact from her draw. 40

Others in the draw:

19. Cornet - has really stepped up this season, 19-6 on clay alone. But she is tiny, it's hard to see her out-hitting the bigger girls. Junior champion here last year, if she can get out of that dangerous 1/8 (Radwanska/Cibulkova/Jankovic), she could keep going. 50

28. Cibulkova - has jumped from 51 to 31 since the start of the year, with wins over Chakvetadze, Venus Williams and Azarenka. Tough draw, but watch out for her in the future. 150

Pironkova - talented Bulgarian teen. In great form beating Ivanovic in Rome. Can really hit a ball. 150

The Bets:

This year is wide open. Without a dominant player on clay, it's worth hunting for a bit of value. At the very least, you'll be able to trade players at bigger prices because there is no clear favourite holding 40% of the market. I'm going to take a stab at Dementieva. She's in her best form for years and has the ability to beat anyone in the draw on her day. Azarenka can also make her way through the second quarter at a decent price.

Back Dementieva 1.5pts at 16/1 or higher, trade 1pt back at half the price later on if available.

Back Azarenka 0.5pts at 40 or higher. Trade back for a profit if/when available at half the price.

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