Tennis Australian Open 2007 Preview: Men's Draw

By Scott Ferguson

Just when we thought Federer was looking invincible, a resurgent Roddick claims his scalp in windy conditions in the Kooyong exhibition. The top half of the draw is mighty tough, any one of seven or eight players could make the final from the bottom half.

THE SEEDS in draw order

1 - Federer. Shortest price for a player to win a Grand Slam before R1 I've ever seen. And for damn good reason too. Has been beaten twice in non-clay Grand Slams since he won Wimbledon 2004. Both his conquerors are here (Nalbandian US Open 2004 and Safin SF here 2005), but are way back in the dust these days. At a price of 1.40, that equates to the all-up of him being 1.05 in every round. Has always lost one match in the Kooyong exhibition, and this year lost the final to Roddick.

25 - Youzhny. Talented but will no doubt be on a plane by the weekend unless he's playing doubles. Good lead-up form, lost to Ljubicic in a third set breaker in Doha. 500

24 - Ferrero. Long past being a threat in a Slam. Has lost his last six matches. Shame he's playing a guy just as out-of-touch as Jan Hajek in R1 or a decent bet could have been on the cards. 1000

14 - Djokovic. One of the hot young stars of the ATP Tour. Won Adelaide just a week ago, but didn't even face anyone ranked in the top 50 en route. Faces claycourters all the way through to a date with big Roger. 150

11 - Baghdatis. The story of last year's tournament. Will be in for a significant fall in ranking if he doesn't get to the second week at least. Cypriot support in Melbourne will be huge but his draw isn't the best. Mind you, he did beat seeds two, four and seven on the way to the final last time. The French assault of Monfils in R2 followed by Gasquet in R3 will test him, but the QF vs Federer will almost certainly be the end. 80

18 - Gasquet. Enters the fortnight in good shape, having played seven matches in Australia for five wins, reaching the semi-final in Sydney versus Moya. Called for the trainer in that match so a slight query on fitness. Should battle it out with Baghdatis for a clash with Federer, whom he has beaten once. 125

27 - Acasuso. Hasn't played since losing the deciding rubber in the Davis Cup final to Safin. Faces the American wildcard Querrey in R1, and could easily be straight on a plane. Has won just three matches in Grand Slams away from Roland Garros. 1000

7 - Robredo. Into the final in Auckland but that is a poorer formline than winning the Werribee Cup. Improved markedly on the faster surfaces last year but still miles away from winning one of these. Karlovic R2 could be his slayer. 800

4 - Ljubicic. Impressive run in Doha defeating Murray in the final but lost two of three in the Kooyong exhibition, without facing anyone in the top ten. Grand Slam record used to be pants, now it's moved up the scale to mediocre. The resurgent Fish in R1 could be quite a test. 150

30 - Calleri. Three wins under his belt in Auckland lead him into a R1 date with a qualifier. Needs it because he's won just three matches here in six years. 1000

20 - Stepanek. Returned from a long injury layoff (neck) in good form, beating Gonzalez and Ljubicic, and falling to Federer in a third set breaker. Getting engaged to Hingis in the off-season look to have done well for him! 500

16 - Ferrer. Hardworking Spaniard who can win a few matches at this level. Usually beats the claycourters on this surface, but now picking off a few others as well. Won the Auckland event in the past week. Former winner T.Johansson lies ahead of him in R2. Not without a shot of reaching the quarters. 400

9 - Ancic. Was ranked 21 this time last year, improvement due to consistency, losing just twice in the opening round and claiming two titles. Has reached at least the third round in all previous visits here. Joachim Johansson looms large in the second round. If he passes that test, then he'll face Roddick or Safin in the quarters. Still improving at the age of 22. 150

22 - Hrbaty. Has lost three of four matches already in January, might win a couple of rounds but will trouble nobody in contention. 1000

26 - Safin. The enigmatic master. Has reached the final here in three of his past four attempts and missed 2006 through injury. Roddick in R3 looks the big challenge, and the slate is level at 3-3. If he can win that, he'll be in the form which saw him knock off Federer here back in 2005. 40

6 - Roddick. Has reached at least R4 in last four visits, including two semi-finals. Faces a wildcard in R1 who couldn't even win a match in a challenger in New Caledonia! New coach Jimmy Connors has instilled much more belief and variety into his power game, this could be his watershed year. Defeated Federer for just the second time in fifteen matches at Kooyong. Match versus Safin promises to be one of the best of the fortnight. 25

8 - Nalbandian. Struggling with tendinitis in his left knee and is 0-2 in the new year. Has made the quarters or better here for four years running. Might be able to get away with the pain for the first couple of rounds before he starts meeting seeds. Not a threat while unable to shake this injury. 200

28 - Grosjean. Beaten in a thrilling quarter-final by Kiefer last year but only won as many matches in one event for the rest of 2006 in two indoor events in France. Is 0-2 in 2007. This is his best Slam with three QF appearances and a semi-final. Ollie Rochus or Guccione are good enough to test him to his limits in R2. If Nalbandian isn't fit, then Grosjean has a sneaky chance of winning this quarter of the draw. 330

23 - Soderling. Missed this event in 2006, retired in R1 the year before. Took Ljubicic to a third set breaker in a Doha semi, will be fit and ready for this. Faster, slicker courts will help him so listen for reports on court speed. Should face Haas in R3, record against the German stands at 1-3 but a better player now. 150

12 - Haas. None for three at Kooyong not so impressive, but the match practice will have done the world of good. Took Federer to five sets in R4 last year. Will need to be on his game to beat Soderling. 300

13 - Berdych. Czech giant who has already played six matches this season, going 3-3. Formlines are concerning because apart from a win over Robredo in the Hopman Cup, the other results are underwhelming. Poor record here, with a best result of R2 exits here in three visits. HT Lee in R1 is solid enough on this surface to test him if he's underprepared. 400

21 - Tursunov. Was outside the top 50 last year, so 2006 was a big year from him. Pulled out of Sydney with to a left wrist injury after winning the Hopman Cup, although looking at his results (2-2), I think Petrova carried him a bit. Hasn't been past round two here yet. Assuming he missed last week as a precaution, he has a soft enough draw to make the first weekend at least. 300

29 - Malisse. Started 2007 with a bang winning in Chennai, defeating Nadal in the semi. Has a rotten record here, making the third round only once in seven visits. Faces Clement in R1 and although he holds a 3-1 record over him, their clashes are traditionally tight. 1000

3 - Davydenko. Not Mr Popular with the ATP this week after copping a US$10k fine for saying nobody cared about Sydney when he pulled out with a stubbed toe or something lame. This from a money-grabbing Russian who has played every event he possibly could for the past four seasons. Has reached the quarters here in the last two years, beaten by Federer and Roddick. Certainly in the softer half of the draw, if he deserves the no.3 ranking, he should be looking to reach the final. Worth a look each-way. 50

5 - Blake. Won the Sydney final against Moya and then lines up against him in R1. Best results here are two round of 16 appearances. Hewitt or Gonzalez should be waiting for him if he gets that far this time, followed by Murray or Nadal. On the better side of the draw, it's time he really did something in a Slam because two QF appearances in his home Slam are a poor return for someone ranked so high. Worrying stat - is 0-9 in matches going to five sets! 40

32 - Almagro. Not going to trouble anyone on this surface, wait for the clay. 1000

19 - Hewitt. The reality is setting in that Hewitt is being left behind. Cursing his coach during a match is a sign of a tormented mind - it's obviously the bloke in the stands' fault isn't? So another coach has walked out, in comes Scott Draper who'd prefer to be playing golf and throw in a troublesome calf injury for good measure. Easy opening two rounds then Gonzalez, Blake and Murray/Nadal give him no room for error. 500

10 - Gonzalez. Has improved markedly in the past two years, with results on all surfaces and his on-court composure being most notable. Tricky opening two rounds facing two rising stars in Korolev and Del Potro before meeting Hewitt. Filled in for Nalbandian in the Kooyong event, got a couple of important matches in. If he hits the ground running, he's in with a shot of going deep. 200

15 - Murray. The Great British hope has found a coach with a bit of mongrel in him and has been getting stuck into the weights in the off-season, plus sprinting with Michael Johnson. One of only two players to beat Federer last year and has seen off Davydenko, Ljubicic and Safin already in January. Has the draw to go a long way, I'd fancy him to beat Nadal on current form. 40

17 - Nieminen. Consistent R3 exit in three of past four years here, and it looms likely again with Murray ahead of him. It's taken Safin, Federer and Nalbandian to knock him out in recent years. Arrives short of match practice after losing R1 in Auckland, a tourney he won last year. 1000

31 - Wawrinka. Not off to the best start in 2007, with two R1 losses, albeit both in three sets to decent opponents (Mirnyi and Almagro). Only his second time in the main draw here, reached R3 of both Wimbledon and US Open in 2006. Gritty young player with plenty of improvement left in him. 1000

2 - Nadal. Pulled out in Sydney with a groin complaint in R1. Not in great form, lost in the semis in Chennai to Malisse but had beaten noone in the top 90 to get there. Apart from wins over Davydenko and Robredo in the Masters Cup in Shanghai, he has only beaten one player in the top 15 (Tommy Haas, twice) since Wimbledon. Kendrick who took him to five sets at Wimbledon awaits in R1, followed by the solid Belgian Vliegen. Can't see him holding out Murray and Blake/Gonzalez/Hewitt to reach the semis. A big lay at 10 for me.

Of the non-seeds, Joachim Johansson and Chris Guccione could go a few rounds with a good result early on. But big blokes with huge serves aren't known for stamina so I doubt we'll see them in week two.

TIPS:

There's value in the bottom half. Davydenko and Gonzalez look solid chances to make the semis or final for me. Those markets weren't available at time of writing, but the outright prices on Betfair of 95 and 330 look worthy of a nibble. I'll be opposing Nadal as well, he's not been in great form for several months now.

To view the women's preview, click here.

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