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NBL Mid-Season Review
Sydney
Have defeated Melbourne and Brisbane twice this season. Most deserving occupants of first position on the ladder. Mark Worthington has really improved his game a lot this season and with two imports constantly improving plus the chance that off-season recruit Glen Saville may start shooting the ball better (not that he has had to so far), I would expect them to finish the season in first and be extremely hard to beat come playoff time.
PREDICTED FINISH AT SEASONS END – 1st
Melbourne
Won their first 9 games of the season, have lost the last 4. Import Dave Thomas has been out injured. The Tigers are 2 wins and 4 losses in his absence. He is due back in a couple of weeks and this could not come soon enough for the Tigers as they need his energetic play on court.
PREDICTED FINISH AT SEASONS END – 3rd
Brisbane
Won their first 5 games, lost 4 of their next 5. Then put together a 4 game winning streak without Sam Mackinnon and Craig Bradshaw for most of these (a testament to their depth). Then lost in Singapore on Sunday (did outlast the Crocs at home 4 days earlier). CJ Bruton (who has been battling with a sore ankle recently) and Ebi Ere have been carrying them all season long. They will win enough games to finish in the top 3. To contend for the title, they will need Mackinnon, Bradshaw and Bruton at 100% come playoff time.
PREDICTED FINISH AT SEASONS END – 2nd
New Zealand
Recruits Kirk Penney, Phill Jones, Tony Ronaldson and imports Rick Rickert, Wayne Turner have improved this team a lot. They recently lost Turner to a season ending injury. His replacement Orien Greene, who has 128 games of NBA experience, is a defensive specialist who is extremely athletic. At 6 foot 4 inches, Greene, a point guard, will cause a lot of match up problems for other teams. Rickert is also out with a bulging disc in his back. If the Breakers get Rickert back healthy sooner rather than later, they can keep 4th spot. Otherwise, they may only just scrape into the top 8 at seasons end (unless they replaced him with an import near his high standard).
PREDICTED FINISH AT SEASONS END – 7th
Gold Coast
After a sluggish start, the Blaze have shown that they can compete with most teams in this league. The remainder of the season has them facing 7 home games (against 4 opponents currently in the top 8) and 7 away games (all against the other current occupants of the top 8). Might just miss the playoffs.
PREDICTED FINISH AT SEASONS END – 9th
Perth
Sacked an import who was leading the league in assists, replaced him with a slower and bigger import who is less erratic. New import Gerald Brown took a few games to get adjusted to the league and his team mates (a 3 game losing steak coincided with this adjustment), he now looks comfortable and the Wildcats have defeated Sydney and Melbourne in recent games. Whilst the persistent niggles that Paul Rogers, Alex Loughton and Brad Robbins have been playing with for a while now is a concern, 4th place can be theirs if they keep these players on court.
PREDICTED FINISH AT SEASONS END – 4th
Cairns
Despite losing Martin Cattalini for the season, missing Darnell Mee for the start of it and sacking import Rashad Tucker for ‘non-basketball related’ issues, they have remained competitive. Recruiting Stephen Black, youngster Nathan Jawai and import Larry Abney have been the main reasons behind this. They will notch up enough wins to make the playoffs, who they replace Tucker with could determine how much further than that they will go.
PREDICTED FINISH AT SEASONS END – 6th
Townsville
Things looked very bleak for the Crocs when they lost import Rosell Ellis for the season a few games in. They still looked bleak when they replaced the forward with a point guard, Corey Williams. After taking a few games to adjust to the different structure that had to take place as a result of the switch, things don’t look very bad for the Crocs; in fact they actually look quite good. Williams has been in MVP form of late (against more than respectable opponents in Brisbane and Melbourne amongst others). If Williams continues his good form (which I believe is quite possible), they might push for a top 4 finish.
PREDICTED FINISH AT SEASONS END – 5th
West Sydney
The biggest improvers on last season thus far (excluding perhaps New Zealand). A complete overhaul of their program has seen the Razorbacks transformed from cellar dwellers into a young team that likes to run. With a classy import Darnell Hinson and defensively minded Coach Rob Beveridge, they could scrape into the 8.
PREDICTED FINISH AT SEASONS END – 8th
Adelaide
Their season has been hampered by injuries to Captain Brett Maher (due to return this week), Brad Davidson (early season, has since returned) and import Mike Chappell’s struggles in completely shaking off a back injury. Unless they get Luke Schenscher, they will continue to struggle.
PREDICTED FINISH AT SEASONS END – 11th
South Dragons
This team is the NBL equivalent of the New York Knicks. There is a lot of talent on this team, but they don’t gel. This talent needs a lot of touches to be effective, if any of these players don’t get their touches, they go to places on the court that they normally wouldn’t or shouldn’t go to in order to get them. Another team that has had an import replacement (they are looking to bring the outgoing import, Nick Horvath, back as he is due to become a New Zealand citizen), Bakari Hendrix, has fitted in pretty well. They could get their act together; however, I believe they have lost a few too many games to make the playoffs.
PREDICTED FINISH AT SEASONS END – 10th
Wollongong
Upgraded through replacing import James Peters with Puerto Rican International Angelo Reyes. They got hot from the 3 point line earlier in the year to notch up 3 wins, have struggled since. Losing Lindsay Tait for the season and being without Mat Campbell for a lengthy spell (he is due back in the next week or two) has not helped them in their quest to win some more games. There is just too much for Reyes and fellow import, Kavossy Franklin, to do. Cameron Tragardh occasionally chips in with contributions, but not consistently enough. The wooden spoon is a distinct possibility.
PREDICTED FINISH AT SEASONS END – 13th
Singapore
Upset the tired looking Brisbane Bullets at home on Sunday. Outside of Ben Knight, Chris Cameron, Blagoj Janev (the latter two being average at best for NBL standards) and imports Mike Helms, Rod Grizzard, the rest of the squad is filled with development players.
PREDICTED FINISH AT SEASONS END – 12th
Suggested Bets:
1 unit - Townsville $31 or better (Sportingbet, Lasseters) – with the amount of fitness/personnel issues surrounding Cairns, Perth and New Zealand, plus the good form that they have been showing, this definitely looks like value. I believe that they are a realistic chance of winning at least 9 of their last 13 games and the big 3 would want to avoid them come playoff time.
1 unit - Wollongong $3.50 wooden spoon (NSWTAB) – if somebody asked me this question a week ago, without really looking ahead in the schedule or scouring over the ladder properly, I would say Singapore have the wooden spoon wrapped up. However, after looking at it closer, this is going to be extremely close, like maybe a game or two in it tops. The Hawks do have 3 games in hand. Of their remaining 16 games, 9 of these are at home (6 against sides that are currently in the top 8), 7 are away (5 against sides currently in the top 8). The Slingers have 13 games left, 6 at home (2 against sides currently in the 8), 7 away from home (5 against sides currently in the 8). This could very well be decided when the two teams face each other twice (once in Wollongong and in Singapore). I believe laying the Slingers for the spoon at $1.40 is value.
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