2007/08 NBL Season Preview

Adelaide

Last Year: Missed Playoffs

Veteran Guard Brett Maher returns to guide a more balanced looking outfit which has some star signings. Fans might feel down about missing out on signing local junior Brad Newley but there is a lot to like about new signings Adam Ballinger and Mike Chappell.

These players will adequately cover the loss of point scoring whiz Willie Farley and centre Nick Horvath. Don’t underestimate the pick ups of Axel Dench and Brad Davidson who will allow Maher to focus on his shooting. Expect the 36ers to play their usual up tempo game and trouble the top teams. The Sixers are still in the running to sign former Tigers 2006 championship player Neil Mottram who will add size and depth to their much improved roster.

Prediction 5th.

Brisbane

Last Year: Winner

Brisbane will be the hunted this year as they return as Champs minus Stephen Black and Mark Bradtke. It’s a massive blow for the Bullets. Both players were key to their championship drive especially on the offensive side of the ball. It will be interesting to see what Coach Joey Wright can muster. They still have a lot of quality returning in Sam Mackinnon, CJ Bruton, Dusty Rychart and Ebi Ere. But a lot will depend on the development of last season’s grand final whiz Adam Gibson and NZ international Craig Bradshaw.

Bradshaw at 20 years of age and 2.05m played for the Tall Blacks in the recent Oceania series against the Boomers. He is still a work in progress and may take some time to find his feet in this league. CJ Bruton will have the extra responsibility to be a more consistent scorer this season, something he has had problems in the past with. This team is well coached and the talent to repeat but questions will be asked of them often this year and I am predicting them to slide.

Prediction 4th

Cairns

Last Year: Semi-Finals

The Taipans have made the playoffs the last 2 years without being considered a real threat but have recruited well in the off season poaching Stephen Black from Brisbane and Larry Abney from arch rival the Townsville Crocs. They will contend for the title this season.

Martin Cattalini who averaged 26 points last year is the glue but the question is will his knees hold up for another year? Black will fill the role of retiring Anthony Stewart while Rashad Tucker will provide plenty of impact scoring. I still think they may take time to gel but with Coach Alan Black and son Stephen there is a good understanding of what will be required. There is considerable depth in Naturalised Australian Darnell Mee, Aaron Grabau and Gary Boodnikoff. Nathan Jawai could be the x-factor for the Taipans but for mine the most important player on the squad is Boodnikoff. How he returns from his injury will determine how much sting the Taipans have this year.

Prediction: 2nd

Gold Coast

Last Year: New Franchise

The Blaze has a good sprinkling of veterans who will bring that competitive edge to the court. They have a big presence inside with the likes of Pero Cameron and Ben Melmeth. The recruitment of experienced former Wollongong coach Brendan Joyce is a shrewd move. The Blaze has put together a very competitive outfit. Pero Cameron was instrumental in the Tall Blacks Oceania series game 3 win over the Boomers.

They have picked up former Razorbacks in Harvey and McGregor. James Harvey was easily West Sydney’s best and is a very talented guard. Import Jason Crowe was a stand out for the Waikato Pistons but the NBL is another step up. Juaquin Hawkins at 34 is the oldest Blaze player.
The former Houston Rocket will provide plenty of scoring for the Blaze.
Young guns Nic Campbell, Tyson Demos and Daniel Joyce are the future for the club. Daniel Joyce has the advantage of a year under his belt last year completing his rookie year with the Hawks. He was often thrown in the deep end and the results were not pretty but this year he might show his value at the Blaze.
The average age for the team minus these youngsters is 30 so Coach Joyce has a lot of experience to draw from. They will push a lot of sides on their day and should be on the playoff bubble.

Prediction: 9th

Melbourne

Last Year: Runner-Up

The Tigers look to go one better this year. Chris Anstey the best player in the league returns, and his performances will go a long way to determine the Tigers success. The classy and reliable Dave Thomas provides hard nosed defence and quality scoring. Melbourne often only does what is required in many games but they are one team that can hit the go button and bury teams in double quick time.

David Barlow who spent most of last year injured is a great buy from Sydney and should prove an integral part of the team. Martin Muurasepp finally had his visa approved and arrived in Australia to give the Tigers a twin towers look down south. Muurasepp was a team mate of Anstey in Europe and Muurasepp was lucky enough to play some preseason fixtures for the Tigers in Asia, so it should be a smooth transition for him.
The Tigers have considerable depth in D Mac, Corletto and Crosswell. At 43 how long can D Mac continue to run the team? At some point the likes of Barlow and Corletto will step into the fray to take the Tigers to the Championship.

Prediction: 1st

NZ Breakers

Last Year: Missed Playoffs

Andrej Lemanis’s Breakers are the enigma of the NBL. They are a capable outfit but struggle for consistency over the season. The Breakers star import last year Carlos Powell is gone.

They have a better balance than previous years and if the imports Wayne Turner and Rick Ricket live up to expectation they could be a force.
Journeyman Kirk Penney is back home and I expect plenty of points from him as he is a vital ingredient to their success. NZ TallBlack member Phil Jones also joins the squad to provide some perimeter shooting and
International experience. Oscar Forman also provides some punch from deep as well. If they can get consistent low post scoring from Ricket and Ronaldson and stay injury free, I can see them giving teams fits from the outside especially with Turner and Penney hurting you on the drive. The Breakers depth will be local products experienced Paul Henare and green project Paora Winitana. The Breakers have the right mix to go well in the Playoffs.

Prediction: 8th

Perth

Last Year: 4th Quarter-Finals

The Wildcats were somewhat of a surprise packet last year. They were ultra consistent in the regular season but stumbled to be shock losers to Cairns after finishing 4th. Scott Fisher is a very smart operator and he seems confident in the roster he has assembled. They do lack some shooting prowess with the loss of Ryan. Peter Crawford will need to aim up. Also the depth of the squad is a concern.

They retained Shawn Redhage and Paul Rogers who are the nucleus of this team. Rogers is always an injury concern so his fitness will be key. New import Rashad Phillips, who is fresh off a stint in Europe where he averaged 50% from 3 point land is a plus. Nicknamed Baby Iverson Perth fans will be hoping he is half as good . Fisher will look to play a faster more offensive style this season. This will work a treat if Rashad Phillips is as good as his wraps. Aaron Trahair is a chance of making the squad after trialling with the Cats in the preseason. Alex Loughton also looks to be a player of promise as well.

Prediction: 6th

Singapore Slingers

Last Year: 8th Quarter Finals

Returning for their 2nd season in the league the Slingers will be hoping that visiting teams take them lightly so they can record some W’s otherwise it could be a very long year for them.

Mike Helms has some big shoulders but I am not sure if they are big enough to carry this team. Rod Grizzard spent some time playing for the Washington Wizards and needs to bring his best games to the table. Somehow I don’t think new signing Michael Wong, who joins Meng Koon and Matialakan the other local team members will be the answer. Even two Wong’s wouldn’t make it right! Blagoj Janev and Chris Cameron are interesting additions bringing some size and scoring. A lot will also depend on Ben Knight to provide some rebounding and scoring at critical times to ensure the Slingers won’t be a laughing stock. New Coach Gordie McLeod returns to the league and provides championship experience from the sidelines.

Prediction: 12th

South Dragons

Last Year: 7th Quarter Finals

The Hammer is back for another year and has had a full off season to prepare with a quality looking squad. Shane Heal looked to relish the challenge of coaching and playing last year and he still has some good basketball left in him. The Dragons did so well last year after their horror start and coach sacking to comeback and play finals ball.

The Dragons play an up tempo game and are a treat to watch when they are on song. They have lost Franklin and Ellis but have strengthened the side with their purchases. Cortez Groves will run the floor with Heal and the two should work well together while the addition of Horvath adds size to a sharp looking outfit.

I really enjoyed watching the progress of AIS product Joe Ingles last year. He was greener than a billiard table at times but he has plenty of raw talent. Matt Burston is fit and I am looking forward to seeing what he can do if he stays injury free. Jacob Holmes needs to provide some quality minutes to ensure the Dragons are Playoff bound.

Prediction: 7th

Sydney Kings

I have a soft spot for the Kings and Goorj. He is a real competitor and you can always guarantee he will put together a competitive basketball team. Last year was somewhat of a transitional phase for the Kings and they will be bounce back this season.

The last few imports for the Kings have failed to deliver. The ever reliable Jason Smith provides everything required to win ball games for the Kings. Luke Kendall has improved his game to a level where they could afford to let Barlow go.

The pick up of Glen Saville is a great fit as he can play numerous positions and is a menace in defence. Mark Worthington was showing signs of his enormous ability and this could be a huge year for the youngster. Ian Crosswaite needs to stay fit as his size is a key.
For me always the question mark remains over the 2 import spots. They need some consistency from them if they are to challenge for the title.

Prediction: 3rd

Townsville

Last Year: 5th Quarter Finals

The losses of Newley and Abney are a savage blow. John Rillie is still a quality player but he is not getting any younger. On a positive note they have picked up Ellis and Ben Pepper who is great off the boards and they will work well together.

The signing of Young needs to work for the Crocs or I can’t see them being a threat. Sheridan has also come aboard but even still they look thin. If things start to fall apart I can see it being a really long year. Already in the preseason they have had some injury concerns but the Crocs will win their fair share of games at home. How they travel on the road will determine if they are playoff bound or not.

Prediction: 11th

West Sydney

Last Year: Missed playoffs

There has been a big clean out of the Razorbacks and you can be sure they will play with plenty of enthusiasm but maybe not much success. The loss of James Harvey is not an easy one to replace but they have faith in their signings. The Razors lost some close ones at home last season, if they can turn those losses into wins they might surprise some people.

Damian Martin looks to have talent while Darnell Hinson will fill the role of guard adequately. They have suffered a blow already with big man Tony Rampton out for a few weeks. Julian Khazzouh will try to fill the void. He can really block shots and hit the boards but needs to be more polished on the offensive end. They have a new Coach Rod Beveridge who coached the Aussie Emus to a World Championship gold medal in 2003.
Troy DeVries will provide some outside scoring while Liam Rush the most improved Razor returns from a back injury to provide some spark.
If they can sneak a few unlikely wins at home they can rise.

Prediction: 10th

Wollongong

Last Year: Missed Playoffs

The Hawks have a totally new look including new playing kit. Coach Brendan Joyce departed with his son Daniel and out went Groves, Saville and Ballinger. Ouch!

On a brighter note they have lured Lindsay Tait from NZNBL and journeyman James Peters who is handy without being a world-beater. Franklin will be their go to man and after playing with Heal this will be a challenge. Mat Campbell will take on extra responsibility with the departing of key men. New Coach Eric Cooks has a lot of work to do. The Hawks will depend on their home wins hoping to sneak some upsets on the road to be any chance of glory this season.

Prediction: Last

Bets

2 units on Melbourne Tigers to win the competition @ $3.85 or better. (3.85 Betstar)
0.5 unit on South Dragons to win the competition @ $11 or better. (11.0 Sports Acumen)
0.5 unit on Townsville to win the spoon @ $11 or better. (26.0 Sports Acumen)
0.5 unit on Adelaide @ 17.0 or better (17.0 Sportsbet)
Brisbane are poor value right now.
Long shots with a chance are Adelaide and NZ.