Melbourne v Sydney Grand Final Game 4

One shot decided game three and has changed the complexion of this series.  It came from a guy who had made 3 of his first 16 field goal attempts, none of his baskets coming in the second half.  Tigers Import Sean Lampley had a very quiet game, especially by his standards.  His three point basket in the dying seconds of game three has given his side one hand on the trophy as the Tigers have the opportunity to win the championship in front of their home fans tonight.

The Tigers need to continue searching for the mismatches that they have on the floor.  It requires patience and good ball movement but when they find the mismatches, a lot of cheap baskets tend to follow which eases the offensive burden on the likes of Chris Anstey and Lampley.  As a whole, they hit a decent enough percentage from the field in game three.  If they do not shoot very well to start this game, Lampley and Anstey need to get away from the perimeter and be aggressive around the paint.  If the Tigers can handle the Kings half-court press (which they did for the majority of game three), they will have an easier time playing defence against them as they will be better equipped to keep up with them in transition.

Kings import Dontaye Draper is considered to be in serious doubt for tonight’s game with a leg strain.  There is also a cloud hanging over the status of Russell Hinder.  A significant hole to fill would be left if either player could not play tonight.  Another effect of either players’ absence will be that the Kings will not be able to employ their half-court press for as much as they would like to which, as I have alluded to above, will make it easier for the Tigers to keep up with them in transition.

The Kings, whilst they will be desperate to keep their season alive, look a touch too short away from home.  Despite this, there is not quite enough value for me in taking the Tigers at the minus.  If it gets confirmed that Draper or Hinder are not playing, I will be taking any -3.5 that is out there and any -4.5 if both of them are not playing.  Until any of this is confirmed, there will be no play on the line.  The points total looks about right to me.