Melbourne v Sydney Grand Final Game 2

A few missed shots from the Tigers in the fourth quarter enabled the Kings to turn around a 1 point deficit at three quarter time into a 21 point win in game one.  The Tigers as a whole shot quite well in the first three quarters which enabled them to stay in front of the Kings.  When they started missing shots, other aspects of their game also went downhill.  It will be interesting to see if they can make the right adjustments in front of their home fans tonight.

One adjustment that they must make is getting into their offence a lot quicker.  The key to doing this is better ball movement, which would mean passing out of the Kings half-court press and moving the ball a lot quicker when they get across the half-court line and into their offence.  Doing the latter means that the likes of Chris Anstey and import Sean Lampley need to get away from the perimeter and get down in the post (as they both seemed to slow down their teams ball movement when they got their touches around the perimeter).  They are both more dangerous closer to the basket as well.  Better ball movement across the whole court will also make it easier to take the Kings out of their transition game (as the Kings will need to work even harder on defence), which really hurt the Tigers two days ago.  Another thing that they did quite well against Brisbane in their semi final series and failed to do in game one was take advantage of their mismatches.  This means that if import Dave Thomas or Dave Barlow have the likes of BJ Carter, a very small guard, matching up on them on defence, they must get the ball in the post against them right away.  They seemed a bit too keen to work their two man game with Anstey on the perimeter instead of looking for such mismatches.

For the Kings, it is a case of ‘if it’s not broke, don’t fix it’.  They need to persist with their press against the Tigers (which at times took almost half of the shot clock away from the Tigers offence).  They need the likes of Ian Crosswhite and Russell Hinder to continue to make Anstey work on defence, as well as Luke Kendall and import Dontaye Draper remaining aggressive against the weaker point guards from the Tigers.  After his 35 point outing in game one, Mark Worthington may get a bit more attention from the Tigers’ defence.  The Kings have a lot of scoring threats and if they continue to move the ball, they will be able to get some of them going.  If the Tigers find a way to handle the press of the Kings (easier said than done), it could be a much tougher game for the Kings.

I believe the Tigers are too short here.  They are in front of their home crowd but it looks like they have a few too many issues that they need to correct in such a small space of time (2 days).  If the Tigers shoot exceptionally well for the whole game they could stay with the Kings (again, easier said than done against the Kings defence).  Any off period that they have shooting wise could very well be enough for the Kings to pull away and I believe a play on them at the line and to win is warranted.  The points total looks spot on to me.

1.5 units Sydney +2.5 at $1.90 (Sportingbet)
0.5 unit Sydney $2.20 (Sportingbet)