Sydney v Perth Semi Final Game 3

Who joins Melbourne in the grand final series will be decided tonight as the Kings host the Wildcats in the semi final series decider.  The Kings were under manned in game two but given the game that Shawn Redhage had (35 points, 11 rebounds and 7 assists) I doubt the result would have been much different if the Kings were at full strength.

The Kings do get leading scorer Mark Worthington back for this game from suspension.  His absence did reduce the variety that the Kings had on offence as the rest of their big men prefer facing up to the basket in the post rather than trying to back their defender down (as Worthington does), which reduced the ability of the Kings to move the ball and find the open shooters (as it was much more easier for the Wildcats to double team as the Kings big men cannot see where all of their team mates are when they are facing up to the basket), two things that they are normally quite good at.  Jason Smith is also expected to return tonight after he rested his shoulder in game two.  How many minutes he will play is unknown as he said the shoulder is still sore and given how he performed in game one, I do not expect him to be much of a factor in any case.

Apart from the big game from Redhage, the Wildcats cut down on their turnovers significantly in game two, which also went a long way towards evening up the series.  The Wildcats coaching staff will make sure that their troops do not forget the importance of looking after the ball tonight.  What they will also stress, with the return of Worthington, is to have faith the defensive abilities of each other, in other words, only help each other out when it is necessary (I am sure the coaching staff we be looking at Paul Rogers when they get this point across).  Alex Loughton is a very capable post defender and unless Worthington starts hitting the tough fall away shots that Loughton will force him into taking, he would not need any help in containing him. 

The Kings are deserved favourites at home but not by as many points as there are in the current line betting.  They may try and throw some double teams at Redhage but the Wildcats do have plenty of other players who will become that much more dangerous if they employ this tactic.  The first two games of this series have been very hard fought and I expect this one to be no different.  If the Wildcats look after the ball and do not over commit on defense, they are a great chance of winning this game.  The points total looks spot on to me. 

1.5 Units Perth +9.5 at $1.85 (TAB)
0.5 Unit Perth $4.33 (Bet Choice)