NBL Semi Final

Sydney v Perth: Game 1

Then there were four.  The Kings, the minor premiers, host the Wildcats tonight in game one of a three game semi final series.  Game two will be in Perth on Wednesday.  Both of the home teams prevailed in the two regular season meetings (the Wildcats by 3 points in round 11 and the Kings by 19 points in round 20).

The main advantage that I believe the Kings hold over the Wildcats is at the centre position.  Paul Rogers of the Wildcats is one of the better big men in this competition but he does not have the same mobility of Russell Hinder, Ian Crosswhite or import Isaiah Victor (all of which can hit the mid range jump shot which would have to draw Rogers out to them).  Bringing Rogers out of the paint will enable the likes of Mark Worthington, Glen Saville, and Jason Smith more room to do some damage around the basket.  Just like every other team in the competition, the Wildcats also have a hard time containing speedy import Dontaye Draper.

Whilst Rogers may get exposed defensively, on offence he holds the key to victory for his team.  Not one of the Kings big men have the interior defence capable of containing the post game of Rogers.  Rogers is also a great passer which makes double teaming him a dangerous ploy (especially if his team mates can knock down any open looks that they will get).

This game may very well become a shootout as I would not be surprised to see both teams try out their zone defences in order to negate the respective advantages that each side holds.  I do believe that the Kings are too short here.  Their big win against the Wildcats in round 20 is deceiving as the Wildcats did play in New Zealand just 2 days prior to that.  The Kings may also come out a bit rusty as they have in previous games following big breaks in the schedule.  I give the Wildcats a great chance at covering the big start and I also believe that a small play on them to get the victory is warranted here.  The points total, already low, is not quite low enough for me.  Both of these teams play great defence.  It being a playoff game tells me that both teams will have their defences raring to go and that either team, let alone both teams, getting to 90 points will be a surprise.  All of this tells me that the unders look like value here.

Perth +10.5 at $1.85 (TAB) - 1.5 units
Perth $5.50 (Bet Choice) - 0.5 unit
Under 182.0 at $1.87 (Sportingbet) - 1 unit

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