NBL Quarter Final

Perth v Townsville

The Wildcats host the Crocs, who have traveled from one side of the country to another in a short space of time after defeating the Gold Coast at home 2 days ago.  The regular season series between these two teams was split at 1-1, with the home team emerging as narrow victors on both occasions.  The winner of this contest takes on Sydney in a semi final series next week.

I believe that there are two keys to success for the Wildcats in this game.  The first thing is to look at maximizing the advantage that they have in the frontcourt.  The Crocs can realistically contain only 2 out of Paul Rogers, Alex Loughton and Shawn Redhage at any one time but not all 3.  Loughton and Redhage in particular have too much versatility for their respective matchups overall.  The second thing is to make Crocs import Corey Williams play as much defence as possible.  This means that the likes of import Gerald Brown and Peter Crawford and even backup Brad Robbins being aggressive whenever the Crocs point guard is standing in front of them when they have the ball.  Making Williams play a lot of defence can reduce his effectiveness on offence.

For the Crocs to have a chance at getting the away win here, I believe that they have to play up tempo and look for the cheap, quick baskets.  If they try and grind against the Wildcats, one of the most physical teams in the competition, their season will come to an abrupt halt.  Getting John Rillie firing on offence (like he did against the Blaze 2 days ago) will also help their cause.  It should be noted that against one of the best defensive backcourts in the league who are playing in front of their home fans, this will be easier said than done.

I expect the Wildcats to have too much for the Crocs in front of their home fans.  There is not quite enough value in taking them at the minus for me though.  The points total looks a touch too low to me; however, when considering the defensive abilities of both teams in a playoff environment, it is hard to back the overs with any confidence and I will not be getting involved here.