NBL Elimination Playoff

Townsville v Gold Coast

The playoffs begin tonight with the Crocs hosting the Blaze.  The winner will make the trek out West to take on Perth this Friday.  The Blaze won the season series 2-1 and was one of only 3 teams to defeat the Crocs in Townsville all season.  Their last victory against the Crocs was over a month ago.  With a home playoff game on the line last Friday, it was the Crocs getting the spoils on their home court, defeating the Blaze 101-81.  It’s do or die tonight and what has happened in the past does not mean a whole lot.

A tendency that has plagued the Crocs all year, in particularly against the Blaze, is settling for the long range shot too much.  The Blaze have done a good job keeping import Corey Williams out of the paint.  Up until last Friday’s meeting, no one has provided Williams with any support.  The likes of Kelvin Robertson, John Rillie, Ben Pepper, import Galen Young, Dan Egan and Drew Williamson will need to step into the spaces around the paint that Williams will create for them to get the job done tonight.  This will keep the defence of the Blaze honest and give their shooters better looks at the basket.

I believe a key for the Blaze tonight will be to get their big men, Pero Cameron, Ben Melmeth and Casey Frank active inside and get them active and involved from the outset.  Cameron in particularly has the inside game that requires a double team which would enable the likes of James Harvey and imports Jason Crowe and Luke Whitehead more room to do their damage.  Defensively, slowing down Williams and making the other players from the Crocs try to beat them is a priority (it is something that they have done well in the 3 meetings in the regular season).

My initial thoughts were that the Crocs were a touch too short here.  Then when considering the lack of experience across the whole bench of the Blaze, the playoff debutantes, when compared to the Crocs, I find it hard backing the Blaze with any confidence and the line betting hard to argue with.  Both teams do have the shooters who can fill up the scoreboard quickly; however the intensity of a playoff game tells me that the low points total in the current market is about right.