NBL Round 22

Gold Coast v Perth

Big Wednesday’s televised game for the last round of the regular season sees the Blaze hosting the Wildcats.  The season series is locked at 1 apiece (both home teams winning).  Key playoff positions are on the line for both teams and a great contest should ensue.

The Blaze left their run a little too late in losing to Sydney, 81-88 (after trailing by 20 at one stage), at home last Friday.  James Harvey top scored with 23 points.  The final game of the regular season for the Blaze is against the Crocs in Townsville this Friday.

The Wildcats overcame a 10 point half time deficit to defeat West Sydney by 7 points in Darwin 7 days ago.  Shawn Redhage (24 points and 11 rebounds), Paul Rogers (20 points, 13 rebounds and 7 blocks) and Alex Loughton (19 points) were the main contributors.  Rogers has been struggling with an inflamed knee recently however Coach Scott Fisher has declared him a certain starter for tonight.  The Wildcats wrap up their regular season against New Zealand at home this Saturday.

I believe the Blaze are too short here.  The last time these 2 teams met, the Blaze prevailed at home by 4 points in round 19.  The Wildcats shot a very poor 9 of 24 (38%) from the free throw line in this game (they average 70% on the season), they came into this game on the back end of an extremely rough part of the schedule and were still leading by 7 points with less than 3 minutes to go in this game.  To the Blaze’s credit, they hit some very big shots in front of their home fans to get themselves over the line.  I believe that the Blaze will need to bring more than some big outside shooting late in the game to beat the Wildcats here, who, with a weeks rest behind them, along with the unlikelihood of them being so poor from the foul line again, look like value in the current line betting to me.  The points total looks about right to me.

Wildcats +3.5 at $1.90 (Centrebet) - 2 units
Wildcats $2.35 (Centrebet) - 1 unit

Wollongong v Cairns

The Hawks, in their last home game of the season, host the Taipans.  The Hawks will be hoping to avoid a season series sweep (after round 3 and round 8 defeats to the Taipans).  The Taipans, who have not been in the greatest form of late, need the win to secure a playoff berth.

The Hawks defeated the Razorbacks in Sydney, 111-106 (after losing to Brisbane at home the previous night).  Cameron Tragardh (24 points and 10 rebounds) was the main contributor).  Larry Davidson (22 points), import Kavossy Franklin (18 points) and Mat Campbell (17 points) all provided good support.  The Hawks wrap up their season against the Bullets in Brisbane this Saturday.

The Taipans lost both of their games last week.  They lost by 5 points in Melbourne against the South Dragons 7 days ago.  They were then defeated 104-113 against the 36ers in Adelaide last Saturday.  Martin Cattalini (27 points) and Stephen Black (25 points) were the main contributors against the 36ers.  Tonight the Taipans will be without Darnell Mee (virus) and will still be missing Aaron Grabau (bulging disc in neck), which is a blow for them, especially on the defensive end.  The Taipans host Townsville this Saturday to wrap up their regular season.

The Taipans are the better team.  Their record away from home this season is not the greatest (5 wins and 9 losses).  This, along with the absence of Mee and Grabau, all seems to be accurately reflected in the line betting.  The points total looks spot on to me.

Singapore v Adelaide

The Slingers host the 36ers to wrap up their season.  They have nothing else apart from some pride to play for here.  The 36ers, who have comfortably defeated the Slingers in both earlier meetings this season, need a win here, along with some results to go their way, to squeeze into the playoffs.

The Slingers were comfortably defeated by the Kings in Sydney last Saturday, 84-113.  Import Rod Grizzard led 5 players in double figures with 16 points.  In order to give themselves and their fans some kind of hope heading into next season (however minute this may be), I expect the Slingers to play hard in this, their last game of the season.

The 36ers defeated Cairns at home, 113-104 last Saturday.  Import and reigning NBL Player of the Week for the third week in a row, Julius Hodge (who, if the 36ers do squeeze into the playoffs, must be considered for league MVP providing there are no minimum amount of games that have to be played to be eligible, which I am unsure of at this point in time) was once again very impressive, just missing out on another triple double with 31 points, 14 rebounds and 9 assists.  Their other import Adam Ballinger, also contributed 31 points and 10 rebounds.  With having much more to play for, I cannot see the 36ers being defeated in this game.

I believe that the 36ers will attain a comfortable victory here.  There is no value in taking them at the big minus away from home for me though.  The points total looks to be on the mark to me.

Sydney v New Zealand

Two of the in-form teams in the competition square off here with the Kings hosting the Breakers.  The Kings want momentum going into the playoffs whilst the Breakers are playing for a better position within the top 8.

The Kings demolished Singapore at home last Saturday, 113-84 (after winning on the Gold Coast the night before).  Six players reached double figures for the Kings, with Cam Tovey top scoring with 20 points.  The Kings wrap up their regular season against the South Dragons in Melbourne on Saturday.

The Breakers defeated Melbourne at home last Thursday, 105-91.  Kirk Penney (24 points) and imports Orien Greene (20 points, 8 assists and 6 steals), Derrick Alston (16 points and 11 rebounds) were the main contributors.  The Breakers last game of the regular season is against the Wildcats in Perth this Saturday.

After needing overtime to defeat them back in round 15, I believe the Kings will get a more comfortable victory this time around as that round 15 game was their first game back after a long break in the schedule.  The line betting and the points total look about right to me.